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With each new scandal involving Donald Trump, the question arises again: Is this the one that will finally exact some pain on the former president?

The question is in the air once more following the FBIs seizure of top-secret documents from Mar-a-Lago last week. On the one hand, as both Trumps allies and adversaries have noted, such a warrant on a former president is unprecedented, one of Trumps lawyers reportedly told the government all files were returned prior to the search, and Trump has offered nonsensical defenses, all of which point to the seriousness of the situation. On the other, many cases involving mishandled classified information end without chargesjust ask Hillary Clintonand some experts speculate that the goal of the search may simply have been to recover the documents rather than to build a criminal case against Trump.

But because this case is only the latest in a string of scandals, the question cant be separated from a broader context: Trumps repeated ability to escape the most serious, and sometimes any, consequences for his serial misbehavior. This skill has birthed memes, including a reappropriation of the Teflon Don moniker, well-deserved conservative mockery of premature political death warrants, and the immortal Ah! Well. Nevertheless tweet.

David A. Graham: Trumps scandals are never done

This pattern has created an air of invincibility around Trump that can drive liberals to nihilistic fatalism and conservatives to hubris. In truth, the dichotomy is misleading: Though Trump has evaded the most serious legal consequences so far, he has paid a political price; theres a reason hes the former president and very unpopular with the majority of Americans. Still, as we await more information on the Mar-a-Lago search, the record reveals the maneuvers that have gotten Trump out of jeopardy in the past.

Before the Presidency

The Scandal: Too many to summarize, as I chronicled in a running tally before he was elected president, including housing discrimination, a scammy university, and sexual-assault and -harassment allegations going back decades.

When: 19732017

How He Got Away With It: You name it, he tried it: connections, luck, running out the clock, endless litigation. But more than anything, a pattern emerged of Trump managing to sidestep serious legal consequences by paying fines to dispose of regulatory headaches, civil lawsuits, and other matters, frequently without having to admit guilt or submit to any other penalties. Many of the cases involved corners cut or laws bent to benefit his business, and the fines tended to represent a sliver of whatever revenue hed made by way of the infraction.

Russian Collusion

The Scandal: Although Trump, as well as many people who ought to know better, insists that the story was a hoax, his campaign colluded with Russian agents during the 2016 campaign, hoping for some edge against Hillary Clinton.

When: 2016

How He Got Away With It: First, Trump left the dirty work to lieutenants, skipping (for example) the infamous Trump Tower meeting with Russian agents. Second, Trump critics overreached, becoming obsessed with sideshows, such as the Steele dossier or the campaign hanger-on Carter Page, that distracted from the core offense. Third, Special Counsel Robert Mueller was hobbled by a Justice Department policy against charging sitting presidents with crimes, and he seemed so determined to play his investigation by the book that he soft-pedaled the seriousness of his findings.

Extorting Ukraine

The Scandal: Using congressionally appropriated funds, Trump tried to blackmail Ukraine into assisting his reelection campaign by announcing an investigation into Joe Bidens son Hunter.

When: 201920

How He Got Away With It: The facts were relatively simple, and the House impeached Trump. But in a pattern that has been central to his enduring impunity, the majority-Republican Senate worked as a bloc to let him off, with only one GOP senator voting to find him guilty on one of two countsputting the vote well short of the 67 needed to convict.

Emoluments Clause

The Scandal: Critics argued that Trump violated the emoluments clause of the Constitution because his businesses allowed him to accept money from foreign governments. The Trump International Hotel in Washington, D.C., for example, became a magnet for overseas officials.

When: 201721

How He Got Away With It: Two cases were tied up in litigation until after Trump left office, at which point the Supreme Court ruled that they were moot. A federal appeals court rejected a third case, brought by Democratic members of Congress, who judges said didnt have standing to sue under the law. This has been one of Trumps essential insights: Just because a law exists doesnt mean it can be enforced.

Ethics Violations

The Scandal: Trump aides appear to have repeatedly violated the Hatch Act and other laws that prevent civil-service employees from engaging in politics or promoting Trump family businesses.

When: 201721

How He Got Away With It: In another demonstration that a laws existence doesnt guarantee that it matters, breaches of many ethics laws are identified by an independent office, but the person responsible for disciplining top appointees is the president. When Trumps aides got in trouble for breaking them for his benefit, he naturally made no effort to levy any punishments.

Questionable Tax Returns

The Scandal: Many questions have been raised about Trumps tax returns, including whether he has followed either the spirit or the letter of the law, going back to his refusal to release his returns as customary in 2016. What information has emerged to the public suggests that he has at the very least violated the former. The House Ways and Means Committee has requested his tax returns from the IRS under an existing statute.

When: 2016present

How He Got Away With It: Delay and stonewalling. The Trump Treasury Department put off a decision as long as possible, then announced that it would not produce the records. Since then, the matter has been tied up in litigation. The House committee still hasnt obtained the records, though it has repeatedly won court cases as it seeks the documentsmost recently last week. By now, of course, the matter is ancient and politically neutered.

Attempted Coup

The Scandal: Trump sought to overturn the 2020 election, pressuring state officials to rig vote totals, trying to engineer alternate slates of electors, and finally inciting a violent mob that disrupted Congresss certification of the count.

When: November 2020January 2021

How He Got Away With It: The House promptly impeached him a second time, but the GOP-led Senate insisted on delaying the trial. By the time it came around, some senators anger had cooled, theyd had a chance to test the political winds, and they decided that sticking with Trump was prudent. A majority of senators voted to convict, but the total was still short of the necessary 67.

That isnt the end of the story. The House committee investigating the maneuvers continues to turn up damaging information, which seems to have eroded his standing among Republican politicians and voters. The Justice Department is investigating and could potentially bring charges. A district attorney in Georgia is also investigating Trumps pressure campaign in that state. No one knows whether any of these will lead to charges or other material punishmentsbut Trump has plenty of battle-tested tactics to try to prevent that or fight them if they happen.

Original post:
The Donald J. Trump Guide to Getting Away With Anything - The Atlantic