President Trump Keeps Taking Credit for the Stock Market. Here’s What’s Really Driving It – Fortune
President Donald Trump likes to brag about how the stock market is doing.
After reports about problems at the White House in late July, Trump tweeted that things were going great, citing the "Highest Stock Market EVER" and the "best economic numbers in years."
Trump has a point about Wall Streetthe Dow Jones rose to a record-breaking 22,000 last week, the latest in a series of records the market has seen this year. But economists say there's more to the state of the stock market than just who is president.
Some say Trump's own presidency has been a good test case of exactly how muchor how littlethe president's actions matter.
There are certain trends that are built in, and it may be that economists underestimated the strength of these trends, said Mark Gertler, a professor of Economics at New York University. There probably was a little overreaction to the uncertainty that would be created by the election.
Here are five factors behind the recent stock market highs.
For Gertler, the lions share of positive stock market outcomes are the result of ongoing economic trends rooted in recovery from the recession. As the unemployment rate hits a sixteen-year low of 4.3% and overseas markets continue to strengthen, the stock market has been granted some immunity to the slow rate of fiscal change coming out of Washington.
Steve Chiavarone, a portfolio manager at Federated Investors, points to especially robust earnings in the last six monthsthe highest earnings per share growth the nation has seen since 2011as evidence. The market can afford to be patient when earnings are growing at that level, he said. And all of those earnings have come really without the help of fiscal policy at all.
Although Trump has yet to deliver on economic promises like tax cuts , the market is in a strong position. Anything that Trump could do would be icing on the cake, but right now the cake already tastes pretty good, said Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at the research firm CFRA.
Some economists say the fact that one party controls the White House and both branches of Congress has also helped boost the stock market, since many investors believe it will lead to less gridlock.
The market woke up on the day after election day pleasantly excited about an all-Republican government, said Chiavarone. The election seemed to signal the arrival of a unified government that could make progress after years and years of stalemate.
Perceived political unity, or its lack, can have a deceptive impact on the market. Marina Azzimonti is an economics professor at Stony Brook University who helped design a Partisan Conflict Index measuring the impacts of political disunity on the economy. Typically, a higher level of political discord correlates with a chill on investing.
Right now, the strength of the stock market in the face of growing political division in the country contradicts that paradigm . And while the failure of the effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act has led to some concerns about the effectiveness of Congress right now, the market has not yet reacted in a strong way.
Market-positive hallmarks of the Trump agenda, like infrastructure investment, deregulation, and tax cuts, could be strengthening the marketeven if they arent actually enacted for some time.
Investors are bolstered by the fact that measures like tax cuts are on the table. Theres a belief that something will get done on that agenda, says Chiavarone.
For now, that belief is enoughbut that could change if reform takes too long. Stovall says the last six months have been a process of reducing expectations as the market-positive legislation that boosted the economy in the spring has not come to pass.
Wall Street has some concerns about elements of President Trump's agenda, such as proposals for reducing legal immigration and raising tariffs, which Azzimonti says economists tend to agree are not good things.
But the market has been slow to respond, in part because investors recognize that even brashly promised reforms face an uphill battle in Congress.
Investors job is not only to react ... but also to understand the difference between news and noise, said Chiavarone. For example, a critical tweet directed at a company might have inspired some panic early in Trumps presidency. But now, investors recognize there may not be any policy teeth to those outbursts. Companies with strong fundamentals are unlikely to be financially perturbed by attacks from the President, as long as those attacks continue to be in word only.
And even sweeping policy proposals that could have significant economic impact, like proposals to dramatically reduce legal immigration , have little sway as long as investors know that legislation is unlikely to get through a skeptical Congress any time soon.From a market perspective, its kind of a non-starter, said Chiavarone. It just doesnt matter because its not likely to happen.
Other economists point out that the market tends to react positively after an election.
What people forget is that its not necessarily about this individual and his actions per se, its about the cycle of the elections and the midterms, said Jeff Hirsch, who edits the Stock Traders Almanac. That group has consistently found that a bump to the market in an election year is common.
That also means that we could see some upset after midterms next year. Any impact on the market from the presidential cycle will come to terms with the 2018 midterm elections, said Hirsch.
Until then, Stovall says the higher-than-average number of market records this year are a good indicator that the year will finish strong. But a number of uncertainties loom for the market. With earnings over for the quarter, Chiavarone warns that continued holdups to tax changes, a battle over border wall funding, or intensification of the probe into Russian interference with the election could have a temporary dampening effect. Depending on who replaces Janet Yellen at the Federal Reserve, investors could be looking at a significantly different situation.
And it remains to be seen how impactful the President and his policies may be on this economy.
The effects are going to be seen down the road, said Azzimonti. Its a little bit too early to attribute any good or bad thing to this administration.
See the rest here:
President Trump Keeps Taking Credit for the Stock Market. Here's What's Really Driving It - Fortune
- Donald Trump calls for Freedom 250 Concert to be canceled and suggests it is replaced by a MAGA rally following a mass exodus of scheduled performers.... - May 31st, 2026 [May 31st, 2026]
- Donald Trump Will Now Headline Freedom 250 Festival After More Than Half of the Planned Musical Acts Dropped Out - People.com - May 31st, 2026 [May 31st, 2026]
- Donald Trump Jr. and new wife share behind-the-scenes wedding video - CNN - May 31st, 2026 [May 31st, 2026]
- Donald Trump Offers to Perform at Freedom 250 Concert Himself: 'Only Great Patriots Invited' - Rolling Stone - May 31st, 2026 [May 31st, 2026]
- Donald Trump Wants Prediction Markets To 'Thrive', But AGA Boss Bill Miller Disagrees: The CFTC Is 'A Rogue Agency' - Yahoo Finance - May 31st, 2026 [May 31st, 2026]
- Joe Rogan appreciates how Donald Trump does wild st like UFC fights on the White House lawn - Yahoo Sports - May 31st, 2026 [May 31st, 2026]
- Donald Trump only a paper tiger, says Saudi expert - The Jerusalem Post - May 29th, 2026 [May 29th, 2026]
- Jaxson Dart, Abdul Carter explain their viewpoints on Giants QB's Donald Trump introduction - Yahoo Sports - May 29th, 2026 [May 29th, 2026]
- How many Americans think they could beat Donald Trump in a fight? - YouGov - May 11th, 2026 [May 11th, 2026]
- FAA employee from New Hampshire accused of threatening President Donald Trump - WMUR - May 5th, 2026 [May 5th, 2026]
- The soon-to-be-renamed Donald Trump airport has a logo and it's gold - The Palm Beach Post - May 5th, 2026 [May 5th, 2026]
- Donald Trump Is About to Be Humiliated in Front of the Whole World: Political Scientist Robert Pape - The Daily Beast - May 5th, 2026 [May 5th, 2026]
- Donald Trump Says He Wasnt Worried When Shooting Erupted at the White House Correspondents Dinner - People.com - April 27th, 2026 [April 27th, 2026]
- Donald Trump Reacts to Staged Theories About WHCD Shooting - Yahoo - April 27th, 2026 [April 27th, 2026]
- Note to Those So Inclined: Please Stop Trying to Kill Donald Trump - CounterPunch.org - April 27th, 2026 [April 27th, 2026]
- Tucker Carlson says he regrets backing Donald Trump and is tormented by it - The Guardian - April 21st, 2026 [April 21st, 2026]
- From Donald Trump to Jacob Frey has politics lost its profanity filter? - Northeastern University - April 21st, 2026 [April 21st, 2026]
- Donald Trump Claims Apple CEO Tim Cook Once Called the President to Kiss My Ass - Variety - April 21st, 2026 [April 21st, 2026]
- Tucker Carlson Apologizes for Misleading People About Donald Trump: I Will Be Tormented by It for a Long Time - Variety - April 21st, 2026 [April 21st, 2026]
- Here's what Warren Buffett, Sam Altman, Donald Trump, and everyone else has to say about Tim Cook stepping down - Fortune - April 21st, 2026 [April 21st, 2026]
- Jon Stewart Catches Donald Trump Admitting How Miserable He Is - The Daily Beast - April 21st, 2026 [April 21st, 2026]
- Terrible poll ratings would bother some politicians. Donald Trump isnt one of them | Arwa Mahdawi - The Guardian - April 21st, 2026 [April 21st, 2026]
- Three reasons Donald Trump wont pull the US out of Nato - The Conversation - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Donald Trump Rails Against Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly & Candace Owens - Deadline - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Donald Trump Tells Reporter He Didn't 'Know Anything About' Melania's Epstein Remarks Before She Went Live - People.com - April 10th, 2026 [April 10th, 2026]
- Donald Trump Floats Absurd Fantasy to Cope With Iran Humiliation - thedailybeast.com - April 8th, 2026 [April 8th, 2026]
- Donald Trump Jr. says the biggest names think Europe is a disaster that needs to be fixed - fortune.com - April 8th, 2026 [April 8th, 2026]
- Donald Trump says he will work with Iran for 'very productive regime change' - The Jerusalem Post - April 8th, 2026 [April 8th, 2026]
- The world cant wait for Donald Trump to leave office | Letters - theguardian.com - April 7th, 2026 [April 7th, 2026]
- Donald Trump, 79, Rants That Hes Good at Language in Unhinged Appearance - The Daily Beast - April 7th, 2026 [April 7th, 2026]
- Donald Trump Defends His Profanity-Filled Easter Post Urging Iran to 'Open the F---in' Strait, You Crazy B------s' - People.com - April 7th, 2026 [April 7th, 2026]
- Donald Trump says US could destroy Iran in one night as he demands opening of Strait of Hormuz - Financial Times - April 7th, 2026 [April 7th, 2026]
- Was Donald Trump really rushed to Walter Reed Hospital? Heres what to know - Yahoo - April 5th, 2026 [April 5th, 2026]
- Donald Trump: trouble in the heartlands - The Week - April 5th, 2026 [April 5th, 2026]
- A long way down from JFK to Donald Trump - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - April 5th, 2026 [April 5th, 2026]
- Donald Trump and Pete Hegseths Warped Vision of the Iran War - The New Yorker - April 5th, 2026 [April 5th, 2026]
- Donald Trump is the ageing patriarch of a decaying order | Letters - The Guardian - April 5th, 2026 [April 5th, 2026]
- The 37 most stupid things Donald Trump has ever said - Indy100 - April 5th, 2026 [April 5th, 2026]
- John Roberts told Donald Trump exactly what he thinks - CNN - April 5th, 2026 [April 5th, 2026]
- Donald Trump accused of blade job during assassination attempt. Heres what that means - PennLive - April 5th, 2026 [April 5th, 2026]
- Brian Cox Shared A Brutally Honest Take About Donald Trump And The US Patriarchy - BuzzFeed - April 5th, 2026 [April 5th, 2026]
- Sky News Australia. . Former White House press secretary Sean Spicer says US President Donald Trump hit the ground running on the first day of his... - March 24th, 2026 [March 24th, 2026]
- Donald Trump Says James Talarico Is a Vegan With Six Genders in Bizarre Rant - them.us - March 24th, 2026 [March 24th, 2026]
- President Donald J. Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi deliver remarks in the the State Dining Room - The White House (.gov) - March 22nd, 2026 [March 22nd, 2026]
- California is taking Donald Trump to court for breaking the law to put polluter profits before American lives - California State Portal | CA.gov - March 22nd, 2026 [March 22nd, 2026]
- War in Iran is making Donald Trump weakerand angrier - The Economist - March 22nd, 2026 [March 22nd, 2026]
- Donald Trump very surprised Australia declined to send troops to strait of Hormuz amid fuel crisis - The Guardian - March 22nd, 2026 [March 22nd, 2026]
- Majorities of Americans think Donald Trump is arrogant, opportunistic, and reckless - YouGov - March 18th, 2026 [March 18th, 2026]
- Donald Trump Hit With Dire Warning of a Self-Inflicted Disaster - The Daily Beast - March 18th, 2026 [March 18th, 2026]
- LEADER JEFFRIES WITH DEMOCRATIC VETERANS: DONALD TRUMP HAS CONTINUED TO BREAK HIS WORD TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE Congressman Hakeem Jeffries -... - March 4th, 2026 [March 4th, 2026]
- President Donald J. Trump hosts a bilateral meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz - The White House (.gov) - March 4th, 2026 [March 4th, 2026]
- Donald Trump Humiliated by Allied Pilot Who Downed $100 Million Worth of U.S. Jets - The Daily Beast - March 4th, 2026 [March 4th, 2026]
- Is Donald Trump facing impeachment 2026? What the odds say today - The News Journal - March 4th, 2026 [March 4th, 2026]
- President Donald Trump says he doesnt care if Iran plays at World Cup in North America - The Athletic - The New York Times - March 4th, 2026 [March 4th, 2026]
- President Donald Trump pledges action to save Great Salt Lake - KUTV - February 22nd, 2026 [February 22nd, 2026]
- Donald Trump Calls On Netflix To Fire Board Member Susan Rice Or Pay The Consequences - Deadline - February 22nd, 2026 [February 22nd, 2026]
- Donald Trump just announced a NEW 15% TAX on the American people. He does not care about you. - x.com - February 22nd, 2026 [February 22nd, 2026]
- Donald Trump is reshaping American health care - The Economist - February 22nd, 2026 [February 22nd, 2026]
- Donald Trump says US committing $10 billion to Board of Peace - The Hill - February 20th, 2026 [February 20th, 2026]
- Florida airport to be renamed after US President Donald Trump - RFI - February 20th, 2026 [February 20th, 2026]
- Donald Trump and the disgrace of Presidents Day - The Hill - February 16th, 2026 [February 16th, 2026]
- Nothing says the special relationship is over like this picture of Donald Trump and Liz Truss | Zoe Williams - The Guardian - February 16th, 2026 [February 16th, 2026]
- George Washington and Donald Trump Have a Similar Obsession. Theyve Expressed It Shall We Say ... Differently. - Slate - February 16th, 2026 [February 16th, 2026]
- Where Donald Trump Approval Rating Stands in Each State on Presidents Day - Newsweek - February 16th, 2026 [February 16th, 2026]
- Donald Trump is "in retreat" on Greenland and ICE, prominent critic and California Governor Gavin Newsom told DW at #MSC2026. - facebook.com - February 16th, 2026 [February 16th, 2026]
- Peter Kalis: What JFK did, Donald Trump can do, and for the same reasons - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - February 16th, 2026 [February 16th, 2026]
- Donald Trump and the Dictator Dynamic - America Magazine - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- Who wrangled the best trade deal from Donald Trump? - The Economist - February 11th, 2026 [February 11th, 2026]
- President Donald Trump: We have the hottest country in the world - Fox Business - February 9th, 2026 [February 9th, 2026]
- President Donald Trump announces the launch of TrumpRX - The White House (.gov) - February 9th, 2026 [February 9th, 2026]
- Donald Trump calls Bad Bunny's halftime show a slap in the face' to the U.S. - NBC Bay Area - February 9th, 2026 [February 9th, 2026]
- The 7 things to know about President Donald Trump for Monday, Feb. 9 - The Washington Post - February 9th, 2026 [February 9th, 2026]
- Donald Trump calls for immediate NFL rule change after what he saw in Super Bowl 60 - Yahoo - February 9th, 2026 [February 9th, 2026]
- Bill Maher Says Donald Trump Wanting Greenland Isnt the Craziest Idea Ever - TV Insider - February 9th, 2026 [February 9th, 2026]
- Thank you, President Donald J. Trump, for approving Tennessees Major Disaster Declaration to support recovery following Winter Storm Fern. This... - February 7th, 2026 [February 7th, 2026]
- How to Protect the 2026 Elections from Donald Trump - The New Yorker - February 7th, 2026 [February 7th, 2026]
- 3 Polls That Paint a Worrying Sign for Donald Trump - Newsweek - February 7th, 2026 [February 7th, 2026]
- Donald Trump is still weird - Yahoo - February 7th, 2026 [February 7th, 2026]
- Remarks: Donald Trump Addresses the National Prayer Breakfast at the Capitol - February 5, 2026 - Roll Call - February 7th, 2026 [February 7th, 2026]
- Eugene Daniels reacts to Trump post with racist depiction of Obamas: 'This is who Donald Trump is' - MS NOW - February 7th, 2026 [February 7th, 2026]