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With the election year now underway, President Trump is no doubt beatable and yet, its starting to feel more and more like hell get reelected.

The obstacles to Trump winning in 2020 should not be ignored. To start, in 2016, he only beat the highly unpopular Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College by winning three key swing states by less than 1%. In 2018, all three of them, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan turned against Republicans. Trump also has historically low approval ratings and has been consistently trailing Democratic front-runner Joe Biden in general election matchups.

But at the same time, there are several factors that increasingly look to be playing in Trumps favor.

One, the economy. Predictions about the United States being on the brink of a recession have not borne out yet. Instead, unemployment has remained at a 50-year low of 3.5%. Since Trump took office, the unemployment rate has averaged 3.9% lower than any president at a comparable point in office since data started being kept in 1948. Recent data also undermines the Democratic argument that the gains have been limited to the very top. It makes it harder to run a change campaign in the face of such strong economic performance.

Two, foreign policy. Despite Democratic warnings, Trumps decision to kill Iranian terrorist leader Qassem Soleimani did not trigger a war with Iran. Instead, when Iran retaliated without causing U.S. casualties, Trump prudently declared victory and avoided further escalation. To this point in his presidency, Trump has militarily intervened less than Barack Obama did. Under Trumps leadership, the U.S. also managed to roll back the Islamic State and kill their leader, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi.

Three, impeachment has proven to be largely a bust for Democrats. Regardless of how one feels about the merits of the case itself, politically speaking, months of impeachment news has not significantly moved public opinion. At about 45%, Trumps approval rating is within a point of where it was in September when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi launched impeachment hearings. Support for removal from office is heavily correlated with peoples underlying feelings about Trump.

Four, Democratic candidates dont seem ready to take on Trump. While Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have taken extreme policy positions that will be a liability in a general election, Biden has been showing signs of his advanced age. This was apparent in the January Democratic debate, which will be remembered for Warren and Sanders stabbing each other. Former Obama green jobs adviser Van Jones lamented on CNN after the debate: "I want to say that tonight for me was dispiriting. Democrats have to do better than what we saw tonight. There was nothing I saw tonight that would be able to take Donald Trump out."

Though Biden, on the surface, would have a good chance of beating Trump, recent presidential elections have shown that the candidate with the ability to generate more enthusiasm among their base fares better than a candidate chosen by default. Just think of the failed candidacies of John Kerry, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Hillary Clinton. In contrast, Trump enjoys a passionate following and the GOP is more unified around him than when he won the first time around.

Does this mean that Trump is a lock to win? Of course not. Not even close. Hes still never had the approval of a majority of voters and has serious problems in the suburbs, especially among women. His Twitter addiction can derail any messaging. Theres more than enough time for any of the factors mentioned above to change, if not all of them. The economy can falter. There could be a foreign policy disaster. There could be more damning evidence on Ukraine or other malfeasance that the public finds more convincing than what has been presented to date. And Democrats could unite around their eventual nominee, who could rally the base as and attract the many swing voters who cant stand Trump. But if the current trajectory continues, its looking a lot more like voters will give Trump a second term.

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It's looking more like Trump will be reelected in 2020 - Washington Examiner