What the Coronavirus Revealed About Life in Red vs. Blue States – The New York Times
The staggering American death toll from the coronavirus, now approaching 100,000, has touched every part of the country, but the losses have been especially acute along its coasts, in its major cities, across the industrial Midwest, and in New York City.
The devastation, in other words, has been disproportionately felt in blue America, which helps explain why people on opposing sides of a partisan divide that has intensified in the past two decades are thinking about the virus differently. It is not just that Democrats and Republicans disagree on how to reopen businesses, schools and the country as a whole. Beyond perception, beyond ideology, there are starkly different realities for red and blue America right now.
Democrats are far more likely to live in counties where the virus has ravaged the community, while Republicans are more likely to live in counties that have been relatively unscathed by the illness, though they are paying an economic price. Counties won by President Trump in 2016 have reported just 27 percent of the virus infections and 21 percent of the deaths even though 45 percent of Americans live in these communities, a New York Times analysis has found.
The very real difference in death rates has helped fuel deep disagreement over the dangers of the pandemic and how the country should proceed. Right-wing media, which moved swiftly from downplaying the severity of the crisis to calling it a Democratic plot to bring down the president, has exacerbated the rift. And even as the nations top medical experts note the danger of easing restrictions, communities across the country are doing so, creating a patchwork of regulations, often along ideological lines.
Why has the virus slammed some parts of the country so much harder than others? Part of the answer is population density. Nearly a third of Americans live in one of the 100 most densely populated counties in the United States urban communities and adjacent suburbs and it is there the virus has taken its greatest toll, with an infection rate three times as high as the rest of the nation and a death rate four times as high.
In a country deeply segregated along racial, religious and economic lines, density also aligns with political divisions: Urban America tilts heavily blue. In the 2016 presidential election, Mr. Trumps vote share increased as population density fell in almost every state.
But the divide in infections has been exacerbated by the path the virus has taken through the nation, which is not always connected to density. In some parts of red America, cities have been virtually unscathed and the sparsely populated outlying areas have been hardest hit. Researchers have also found links between the viruss effects and age, race and the weather, and have noted that some of the densest cities globally have not been hit as hard.
If seeing is believing, the infection has simply come to some areas of the country on a far different scale than others. As of Friday, Alabama had experienced 11 deaths per 100,000 residents and New Jersey had lost 122 per 100,000. Both states have had a huge spike in unemployment claims.
Texas, solidly Republican territory and the second most populous state in the nation, had one of the countrys hottest economies before the outbreak. The states biggest cities have so far escaped the worst of the damage. More than 200 metro areas in the United States have higher infection rates than both Dallas and Houston, which may explain why Texas residents are particularly frustrated by the shutdown.
The cure is worse than the disease, no doubt, said Mark Henry, a Republican who oversees the Galveston County government in southeast Texas. There are businesses that were shut down that are never going to open again.
Over all, the infection rate is 1.7 times as high in the most urban areas of the country compared with nearby suburbs, and 2.3 times as high in the suburbs as in exurban and rural areas.
Amid the pandemic, there are densely populated red counties near major cities with high infection rates Suffolk County in New York, Jefferson Parish in Louisiana, and Monmouth County in New Jersey, for example.
But those are true outliers.
A recent spate of outbreaks in meat plants, prisons and nursing homes has created hot spots in 245 counties that supported Mr. Trump, double the number at the beginning of the month. Some of those outbreaks are hitting subsets of the population that historically have not voted for Republicans. In Iowa, for example, Latinos make up 6 percent of the population but nearly a third of those infected. The population is 4 percent black, but 12 percent of those infected are black.
Over all, African-Americans and Latinos have had higher infection and death rates from the virus, and are far more likely to identify as Democrats than as Republicans.
Several companies have studied social distancing metrics based on anonymized cellphone location data, including the mobility research firms Unacast and Descartes Labs. While the companies do not break down findings by political party, the underlying data they collect shows less social distancing in counties that supported Mr. Trump than in those that supported Hillary Clinton.
Rural and exurban county residents, who tend to favor Republicans, do have to travel more for essential services and are less likely to have jobs that allow for working from home. Yet even in more densely populated suburban areas, there was less evidence of social distancing in counties that voted for Mr. Trump.
Matthew Gentzkow, a Stanford University economist who is leading a group of researchers tracking partisanship in the virus response, said his team initially thought that a health crisis would minimize differences assuming that people who disagree over taxes or guns would agree about a pandemic. But instead they found that Republicans were more skeptical about the effectiveness of social distancing than Democrats and have been traveling more outside their homes.
We initially saw partisanship and thought maybe by the time we looked at the data it would be gone, Dr. Gentzkow said. But it turns out that no, this is pretty serious and what we see is that the gap got bigger and bigger. These are real belief differences that should have us really concerned.
Public opinion polls do show widespread support for stay-at-home orders, but also indicate that Republicans are less likely to see the virus as a significant threat to their health. Some skepticism around the impact of the pandemic can be traced to a distrust of the government that has grown among conservatives in the last decade, according to Arlie Hochschild, a sociologist at the University of California, Berkeley, and the author of a 2016 book about the American right called Strangers in Their Own Land.
In the absence of trust, you just believe your eyes and the information that you see in your Facebook feed, she said.
The experience of residents in Texas underscores how much direct evidence of the viruss toll has shaped how people view the measures taken to mitigate it.
At the onset of the crisis, Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, tried to appeal to both sides of the political spectrum, allowing local governments to make their own decisions until Texas became one of the last states to issue stay-at-home orders and one of the first to roll them back last month.
In Hardin County in southeast Texas, where the population is about 57,000, there have been just 125 cases and five deaths. Kent Batman, 60, the county Republican chairman, who has spent his life in the region, said he had heard of only two fatalities, both of which he dismissed as anomalies.
To Mr. Batman, like many other Republicans in East Texas, the health crisis has felt far away, like a big city plague. Were not New Orleans, were just not like that, he said.
Interviews with dozens of Republicans in southeast Texas and other parts of the country over the past month found a pervasive its-not-coming-for-my-neighborhood attitude, with many seeing themselves as a world apart from the regions that have been overwhelmed by the virus. They are enthusiastic backers of rolling back restrictions not just as a way to spur the economy, but also based on the belief that individuals should make their own decisions about risk. They dismiss factual reports from the news media as exaggerated and trying to incite panic, because the reports dont align with their own experience.
Toward the end of March, Judy Nichols, 60, began monitoring charts daily to see how many people near her had the virus. She lives in Jefferson County, not far from Beaumont, and serves as the chair of the county Republican Party. After two weeks, she stopped keeping tabs on the numbers as her worry subsided.
Over the past several weeks, Ms. Nichols said, she has felt like the winner of a product lottery. She owns several Papa Johns pizza franchises, and business has increased nearly 80 percent pizza in a time of anxiety seeming to be one thing many people can agree on. But nearly everyone she knows is struggling to pay the bills.
On the other side of the partisan divide in Texas, Lina Hidalgo, a Democrat and the top elected official in Harris County, which includes Houston, put in place stay-at-home orders before the governor did in March. Last week, she extended her stay home, work safe guidelines until June 10.
She is concerned about the economic impact. She just doesnt see a safe alternative. When you have a political system, there are going to be attacks, she said. But lets debate the politics when this is over.
Jim Meadows, a 60-year-old refrigeration parts repairman in Nederland, Texas, who describes himself as an extreme conservative, doesnt think the economic question can be set aside. He is upset by the unemployment and financial devastation, which is clearer to him than what he called this invisible plague.
Through his work he has, however, begun taking orders for plexiglass partitions that many businesses around him want to use. He said he was pandering to the uninformed.
Rashell Collins Bridle, a 42-year-old mother of five who also lives in Nederland and makes her living selling items on eBay, said a minister she knew had died after contracting the virus. Even so, she said she and her friends were more focused on freedom than on health.
I guess other people expect us to set our futures on fire to keep their fear warm, she said. I think thats incredibly selfish if youre that fearful, then just stay home.
For Professor Hochschild, who studies division, sentiments like this in a crisis reinforce what she has seen across the country.
There is an underlying stoicism that was there before the pandemic that is really getting tapped, she said. Theres a notion of snowflake liberals who cant take it, who are too dainty and fragile and not hearty like us.
On the first weekend that Texas lifted the stay-at-home orders, Ms. Bridle took her family to a state park on the Gulf of Mexico. She said American flags were flying from many cars and trucks on the road as if it were the Fourth of July.
She said that if schools open with hefty restrictions on recess or how far desks must be spaced together, she will instead place her daughter in a Christian home school co-op.
And if there is another stay-at-home order this year?
We probably wont stand for that again, she said. I myself wont comply. I will never comply with anything else like this ever.
Read this article:
What the Coronavirus Revealed About Life in Red vs. Blue States - The New York Times
- Democrats are facing a gerrymandering armageddon. It was avoidable | David Daley - The Guardian - September 15th, 2025 [September 15th, 2025]
- Opinion | Democrats Cannot Just Buy Back the Working Class - The New York Times - September 15th, 2025 [September 15th, 2025]
- Democrats will 'either adapt or die' as strategists push them onto new platforms - NPR - September 15th, 2025 [September 15th, 2025]
- Even as they look ahead to midterms, Democrats keep rehashing Biden - The Washington Post - September 15th, 2025 [September 15th, 2025]
- Democrats activate weeklong voter drive to offset critical registration losses - The Guardian - September 15th, 2025 [September 15th, 2025]
- Democrats red-state strategy rests on hope and prayer - CNN - September 15th, 2025 [September 15th, 2025]
- Running without the party label stigma: Alabama Democrats line up - 1819 News - September 15th, 2025 [September 15th, 2025]
- Some hard truths for Democrats amidst the despair | Sondermann - Denver Gazette - September 15th, 2025 [September 15th, 2025]
- Democrats should support Trump's plan to give government gift to newborns | Letters - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel - September 15th, 2025 [September 15th, 2025]
- Think Big for a Change, Democrats: Call This the No Kings Shutdown. - The New Republic - September 15th, 2025 [September 15th, 2025]
- Democrats dig in on health care as threat of government shutdown looms - CNBC - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Don't even bother dealing with them, Trump says of Democrats shutdown demands - Politico - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Whoopi Goldberg lashes out at Democrats, says they should have 'kept their mouths shut' about Biden - Fox News - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Utah Democrats receive threatening voice messages in wake of Charlie Kirk's killing - ABC News - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- With the economy faltering, Democrats in fall races focus on affordability - CNN - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- California Democrats end legislative session with climate deal and infighting - CalMatters - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Why Hakeem Jeffries hasnt been able to bend Democrats to his will on redistricting - Politico - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- The Oregon Senates top 3 Democrats received bomb threats Thursday - Oregon Public Broadcasting - OPB - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- California Democrats promised to fix this law. They haven't delivered yet - CalMatters - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Democrats Are Still Debating Joe Bidens Decision to Run - The Atlantic - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Democrats Want JPMorgan and Other Banks to Testify Over Epstein Ties - The New York Times - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Democrats rally behind hardball strategy to upcoming shutdown fight - Government Executive - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Democrats Name Their Price for Avoiding Government Shutdown - MSN - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Texas state Rep. James Talarico on his Senate run and the future of Democrats - WBUR - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Democrats are on the verge of a dangerous mistake - vox.com - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Mamdani refused to back Biden or Harris hes not entitled to Democrats backing now - The Hill - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- What a Virginia Democrats decisive win may mean for midterm elections - The Washington Post - September 13th, 2025 [September 13th, 2025]
- Democrats are doing better than ever in Trump-era special elections - CNN - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Democrats are doing better than ever in Trump-era special elections - CNN - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Democrats cant save democracy by shutting down the government - vox.com - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Column: Democrats should force a shutdown to save the government - Los Angeles Times - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- House Democrats fume in meeting that Schumer will "sh*t the bed" again on federal funding - Axios - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- House Democrats open probe into FBI's handling of Epstein documents - Fox News - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- As Democrats seek to flip the Wisconsin State Senate, primaries shape up in two target districts - News From The States - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Map Shows Where Democrats Are Overperforming in Special Elections - Newsweek - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Democrats Have No More Excuses on Gaza - The Nation - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Democrats in CT town accused of celebrating Charlie Kirk's death say they're victims of 'blatant' lies - CT Insider - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Taking a closer look at the Democrats' proposed district maps - Spectrum News - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Democrats Block Ernst Effort to Safeguard Critical Technology from Chinese Espionage - U.S. Senator Joni Ernst (.gov) - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Democrats want to know how the Forest Service is funding its deferred resignation program - Government Executive - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- All 18 uncontested state legislative incumbents this year are Democrats - Ballotpedia News - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Democrats add 1 more vote in Congress after Virginia special election - Politico - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Democrats try new approach with platform "written from the ground up" - State House News Service - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Pass some gun laws: Democrats slammed for reaction to Charlie Kirk's Utah assassination | Hindustan Times - Hindustan Times - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- Democrats bill would repeal ban on jobless pay for SSDI recipients - Wisconsin Examiner - September 11th, 2025 [September 11th, 2025]
- House Democrats post 2nd Epstein birthday book page referencing Trump - Axios - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Swalwell picked to lead Democrats on new Jan. 6 panel - Politico - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- House Democrats release image of alleged Trump birthday note to Epstein - PBS - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Democrats release suggestive letter to Epstein purportedly signed by Trump, which he denies - Los Angeles Times - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- LEADER JEFFRIES: HOUSE DEMOCRATS WILL MAKE SURE THAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE CONTINUE TO RECEIVE THE UNFILTERED TRUTH Congressman Hakeem Jeffries -... - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- How Democrats pressured U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett to step aside for the next generation - The Texas Tribune - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Democrats are overreacting to Trump 'invading' Chicago, DC | Opinion - USA Today - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- In the Battle for Congress, Working-Class Democrats Try a Hardscrabble Pitch - The New York Times - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Texass Gerrymander May Not Be the Worst Threat to Democrats in 2026 - The New Yorker - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Trump says Democrats have blood on their hands after deadly Charlotte train stabbing - Fox News - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Democrats, GOP test their playbooks as Trump looms over elections in New Jersey and Virginia - WHYY - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Democrats Demand to Know More About Security Clearance Revocations - The New York Times - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Georgias Young Democrats gather in Statesboro to discuss a fresh path - thecurrentga.org - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- The Weeknight debates looming govt shutdown: Democrats must stand as the opposition - MSNBC News - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Joe: Democrats need to talk about inflation, talk about the economy and they'll win - MSNBC News - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Duckworth says DHS 'fled the base during visit by Democrats - Politico - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Secretary of State reports Other continues to outpace Republican, Democrats in voter registration - NKyTribune - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Democrats seek to capitalize on climbing energy bills - Roll Call - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Democrats Bet Briefly Preventing a Health Insurance Apocalypse Is Good Politics - The American Prospect - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Congresswoman Sherrill, Senator Booker Fire Up Westfield Democrats Ahead of Fall Election - Insider NJ - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Democrats Ignore the Hamas Supporters in Their Ranks - Tikvah - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- 'No one is falling for this': J D Vance hits out at Democrats; calls 'Epstein birthday book' 'another fak - Times of India - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- In an attempt to appease the White House, Maryland Democrats announce police surge to Baltimore - World Socialist Web Site - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Democrats remain silent after the murder of a Ukrainian refugee: 'Worst of humanity' - Fox News - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Democrats reveal drawing of naked woman that Trump sent to Epstein - Ynetnews - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Democrats should shut down the government rather than fund Trump's 'Mafia' takeover, NYT columnist argues - Fox News - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Democrats release suggestive letter to Epstein purportedly signed by Trump, which he denies - WUSA9 - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Gillibrand says that some Democrats rhetoric is inadvertently stoking antisemitism - Jewish Insider - September 9th, 2025 [September 9th, 2025]
- Finley: What are the 45 words Democrats should never say? - The Detroit News - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]
- Democrats in Congress have just one move in shutdown fight: Do nothing | Opinion - USA Today - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]
- Why didnt Minnesota Democrats ban assault weapons when they controlled the Legislature? - Minnesota Reformer - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]
- Democrats, GOP test their playbooks as Trump looms over elections in Virginia and New Jersey - ABC News - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]
- Eagle County Democrats to host We The People fundraiser on Sept. 20 - VailDaily.com - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]
- Democrats blast state department for lack of basic oversight of controversial Gaza food organization - The Guardian - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]
- Democrats Score Upset Win in Defeating GOP Censure of Lawmaker - The Wall Street Journal - September 6th, 2025 [September 6th, 2025]