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Hillary Scholten was walking down the street in Grand Rapids last Friday morning when the news alert popped onto her phone. She had known since early May, of course, that the Supreme Court was poised to overturn Roe v. Wade, thanks to the leak of a draft decision. But the reality still hit hard. Record scratch. The day changed, Scholten tells me. I was with my campaign manager, who is a young woman, and we just looked at each other with horror on our faces. My sister called. I felt like crying. And yet, we have no time for tears. What are we going to do?

What Scholten did was amp up her campaign schedule for the weekend. She is the Democratic nominee for a western Michigan congressional district that is currently represented by Republican Peter Meijer, and Scholtens race is emblematic of the challenge facing Democrats nationally: Can they convert anger about the Supreme Courts abortion decision into electoral momentum, and overcome what still shapes up as a very difficult midterms landscape? Polling right after the Roe ruling was encouraging, with Democrats pulling further ahead in a generic ballot. Yet John Anzalonewho is President Joe Bidens pollster and whose firm is advising Scholtens campaignremains cautious, if somewhat more optimistic.

The trifecta of whats dominating the newsthe Supreme Court opinions banning abortion and permitting guns, and the January 6 hearings, which have been pretty intensethe Republicans are on the wrong side of those in terms of public opinion, Anzalone says. In some ways it gives us hope that on the messaging side, we can really compete. Does it mean that were not going to lose the House? No, Im not saying that. But theres a big difference between losing seven or 10 seats and losing 35. This absolutely has an impact to swing races to a bunch of Democrats.

The marginand any chance of the Democrats holding on to their House majoritywill turn on races like Scholtens. Two years ago she lost to Meijer, the heir to a supermarket fortune, by six points. Redistricting, however, has made the playing field distinctly more favorable to Scholten. In 2020 Donald Trump carried Michigans old third district by three points; the new district would have gone to Biden by eight points. Trump has endorsed John Gibbs, Meijers Republican primary opponent, as payback for Meijers vote in favor of impeachment. If Gibbs wins the nomination in August, it would hand Scholten a stark contrast in the general election: Gibbs has backed Trumps election lies, and has said that striking down Roe is great news for women.

Scholten, 40, is a compelling, unusual Democratic candidate. She grew up in a Republican family, attending the evangelical Christian Reformed Church twice on Sundays and once on Wednesdays and remains proudly active in the faith. Scholten served as an immigration lawyer in the Obama administration Justice Department before returning home to Grand Rapids to work as a public interest lawyer. That kind of varied background should be a significant asset, because Democrats cant count on the heat of the Roe moment lasting from now through November. Theres a real divide between the D.C.-based consultants and people who are on the ground in these districts, a Democratic strategist says. The D.C. class says, Oh, yeah, were going to run on choice. Theyre missing [the fact] that public safety and inflation are the real motivators this cycle.

Democratic candidates everywhere are also fighting against disappointment that the party hasnt delivered more of substance after winning the White House and the House in 2020. We have more to do, says New York congressman Sean Patrick Maloney, who is the head of the Democrats congressional campaign arm, and who naturally tries to put a positive spin on a year of frustrating legislative setbacks for Democrats stemming from dissension in their own ranks. But I dont think the story here is that House moderates or progressives let anybody down. They stayed constructive and engaged. We did our work and passed the presidents agenda, and it came within one or two votes in the Senate.

Scholten believes the reaction to the Roe decision will be wide and deep, but shes careful not to become a one-issue candidate. Im a working mom of two young kids who feels the pain at the pump, she says. I look at my neighbor whos working two jobs, as a day-care provider and a waitress, and can barely make ends meet. People here know that big oil and big gas is taking its cut, and that our current congressman voted against a cap on the price of insulin. Thats something that deeply matters in this district.

She is artful about whether the leader of her party, whose public approval is currently 16 points underwater, will be an asset or a hindrance in the race. You know, President Biden isnt on the ballot this time around, Scholten says. Certainly folks are going to be voting on where we are in terms of this country. But we also have a major gubernatorial race here. Governor [Gretchen] Whitmers at the top of the ticket and her approval ratings are high right now.

Losing two years ago somehow didnt discourage Scholten from taking on a battle where shes likely to be the target of Trumps attacks. She even manages to laugh at the prospect. As a woman running for public office, you have to accept a lot of challenges, she says. Im ready for anything.

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We Have No Time for Tears: If Democrats Want to Hold the House They Need to Win Districts Like This One - Vanity Fair