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Democrats, and activists especially, are tired after four years spent dutifully knocking on doors and begging strangers to please vote. Marianne Burke, a 67-year-old retiree who leads the Democratic group Fairfax Indivisible, has noticed a clear decline in volunteer engagement since Bidens win. In February, she struggled to get group members to help mail postcards reminding Virginians to register to vote, and she had to write hundreds of them herself. She gets it: Theres not this urgency. You dont wake up in the morning and say, My God, whats [Trump] gonna do today? she told me. Im cautiously optimistic that Democrats will rally in time to help Democrats win in November, she added. But it is so nice to not have to constantly worry so I can understand why they wouldnt want to. Michael Zuckerman, a 70-year-old professor at George Washington University, told me hes worried about his fellow Democratic voters. Their work has made a difference, and we need to keep it up, Zuckerman said, after we met at the park for Gooditiss event. Hes volunteered for Democratic candidates since 2016. Weve come very close to losing democracy, and Im not sure were out of the woods.

Read: If Democracy is dying, why are Democrats so complacent?

Some races in Northern Virginia, like Gooditiss, could be close. (Shes running unopposed in next months primary; her Republican opponent, Nick Clemente, is already outraising her.) Republicans also have a chance to win at least a few seats near Richmond and Virginia Beach. At the statewide level, the gubernatorial race between the Republican Glenn Youngkin and a soon-to-be-nominated Democrat could go either way, election analysts told me. (Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe is the front-runner.) Youngkin can win if Democratic turnout in November is low, and if he can earn the support of a few of the suburbanites who couldnt stomach Trump.

Persuading them shouldnt be difficult, argues Tom Davis, a former GOP lawmaker from Virginia, because Youngkin, the former CEO of the private-equity firm the Carlyle Group, appeals to suburban sensibilities. Hes [Harvard] business school; hes got an educational pedigree, Davis told me.* He speaks their language. John Chamberlain, a 64-year-old software salesman from Great Falls, in Northern Virginia, is a registered Republican who voted for Biden in 2020. But it was more of a vote against Trump, he told me. I still believe the Democrats are missing something. Chamberlain likes Youngkins business background, and hes considering voting for him over the Democrat in November.

State Democrats plan to defend their progress with suburbanites by talking about Trump and Trumpism as much as possible. At a press conference in Alexandria last week, party leaders underlined the fact that Donald Trump has endorsed Youngkin. They referred to the Virginia Republican Party as the Virginia Trump Party, and warned voters against supporting the Trump-Youngkin agenda. Down the ballot, Gooditis is prepared to defend herself against negative ads by reminding voters of the events of January 6. Its very easy for us to say, Yeah, but they supported the guy who told people to attack the U.S. Capitol. So who are you going to listen to? she said.

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Virginia Elections Will Test the Democratic Coalition - The Atlantic