The Fix: This poll is very good news for Senate Democrats
Former Ohio governor Ted Strickland is ahead of Sen. Rob Portman (R) by nine points in a new Quinnipiac University poll out today, a result that has to make Democrats eyeing the possibility of retaking the Senate in 2016 very, very happy.
Strickland stands at 48 percent to 39 percent for Portman, who, after stints in the House and the Bush administration, is in the midst of his first Senate term. Strickland's lead is built almost exclusively on an 18-point edge over Portman among independents although he also wins a larger portion of self-identified Democrats (85 percent) than Portman does among Republicans (79 percent).
Why is this poll such good news for Democrats? Because it makes clear that Ohio is very much in play with Strickland as their nominee (the former governor still faces a primary from Cincinnati City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld). That makes the 2016 playing field a seat bigger, giving Democrats more margin for error as they try to win back the four (if a Democrat wins the White House) or five (if he/she but really she doesn't) seats they need to reclaim the majority.
As I wrote in a Senate analysis back in February:
Yes, Republicans such as Sen. Mark Kirk (Ill.) and Sen. Ron Johnson (Wis.) are in a tenuous position to win second terms. But beyond that, there are no races that today you would call 50-50. Sure, Pennsylvania is a Democratic state, but Sen. Patrick J. Toomey is an able candidate, andDemocrats are down on the prospect of a rerun from former congressman Joe Sestak. Sens. Kelly Ayotte (N.H.), Roy Blunt (Mo.), Rob Portman (Ohio), Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Richard Burr (N.C.) are all relatively young and have faced real races in the not-too-distant past. Yes, they sit in swing (or Democratic-leaning) states, but none of them are underdogs (or even close) yet.
Now, this is ONE poll and the first one from a credible organization we've seen in this race. Do I think Portman, one of the most able politicians in the Senate, is going to lose to Strickland by nine points? I don't. In fact, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the Portman folks leaked out some of their own internal poll numbers showing the senator in much stronger shape in the next few days. For what it's worth, here's what Portman campaign manager Corry Bliss had to say about the poll: This poll shows one thing and one thing only, Ohio is doing so much better since Ted Strickland left office that people forgot what an awful governor he was."
But, the combination of the ballot test, Strickland's terrific favorable/unfavorable ratings (49 percent favorable/29 percent unfavorable) and the relative anonymity of Portman (44 percent haven't heard enough about him to offer an opinion) suggest that this is a very real race.
That's a win and a big one this early in the election cycle for Democrats.
Chris Cillizza writes The Fix, a politics blog for the Washington Post. He also covers the White House.
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The Fix: This poll is very good news for Senate Democrats
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