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President Obama is a drag on Democrats this year, any way you slice it. His disapproval rating has been hoveringaround60 percent in the key Senate states, that hasn't gotten better, and 55 percent of registered voters rate his presidency as a "failure."The history ofan unpopular president's party in midterm election is even gloomier.

But tucked inside Tuesday's new Washington Post-ABC News poll is a semi-encouraging figure for Democrats: Among the clearmajority of Americans who disapprove of Obama (54 percent), a little bit less than three-quarters of them say they are voting Republican in the coming election -- just 72 percent.

I say "just" 72 percent, because that's in contrast to the 85 percent of Obama approvers who say they will vote for Democrats. In other words, opposing Obama is not an analogue for voting Republican in the upcoming election. And that's why Democratsstill have at least a fighting chance to keep the Senate (current generic ballot: 46 percent for Democrats, 44 percent for Republicans).

It's not really all thatsurprising. After all, Democrats in many key races are running well ahead of Obama's approval rating in their states. To wit:

But the extent to which Democrats are running ahead of their unpopular president is somewhat new.

In 2010, exit polls showed 84 percent of those who disapproved of Obamavoted for Republicans, compared to 85 percent of Obama supporters voting Democratic -- a pretty even split which made Obama's approval rating a good analogue for the overallvote.

Of course, Obama wasn't in as bad shape back then as he is today, which meant the universe of thosewho disapproved of him likely included fewer potential Democratic voters.

A better comparison is George W. Bush, who in 2006 wasabout as unpopular asObama is nowheading into his second midterm election (55 percent disapproval). In a September 2006 Post-ABC poll, 76 percent of those who disapproved of Bush said they intended to vote for the opposition party, the Democrats. That's pretty similar to Obama today.

But where Bush differed from Obama was among his supporters. While 85 percent of those who approve of Obama today are set to vote Democratic this year, just 77 percent of Bush supporters said in September 2006 that they were going to vote Republican.

Bush had basically no voting gap between his loyal supporters and his loyal opposition; Obama has a sizable 13-point gap -- likely in large part because the Republican Party is held in such low regard these days. So while approving or disapproving of the president was a pretty good vote indicator in 2006 and 2010, it appears less so this year.

Originally posted here:
The Fix: The good news for Democrats who are fretting about Obama