Mediaboss Marketing

After indecisive results last week, two Georgia races that will decide the fate of the Senate are headed to runoffs in January. POLITICOs Elena Schneider breaks down how both parties plan to win and how Trumps refusal to concede could shape the campaigns.

Rodriguez noted that the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee was on target to spend $50 million on their Flip Everything campaign aimed at state legislatures. In a valiant effort to put on a happy face, she said, The spin that we've seen now is Democrats saying, 'Well, you can't lose something you didn't have,' but they did lose a lot of money in the process to have this showing in 2020.

Beyond desperate spin, Mutnick identified a few more genuine grounds for modest optimism among Democrats about the decennial redistricting process. One is the trend toward less partisan redistricting, as was evidenced in Virginia by voters backing a referendum to turn the process over to an independent commission.

Since long-term demographic changes generally favor Democrats, they will likely do fine in any process that isnt nakedly partisan (though some Democrats in Virginia, where the Legislature is now Democratic, were looking forward to doing unto others as was previously done unto to them.) Also, Mutnick said, Democrats have generally gained when courts have intervened in redistrictings: I think its possible that we have more court-drawn maps this cycle than we did in 2010.

One welcome victim of the 2020 elections: The overly simplistic assumption that Hispanic voters can be lumped for political purposes in a mostly predictable bloc.

I think the first thing is we need to rethink what is the Latino vote, because Cubans in Miami don't have the same interests as Mexican Americans in Arizona, don't have the same interests as Puerto Ricans in central Florida, Rodriguez said. While Hispanics plainly helped shift Arizona at the presidential level in Democrat Joe Bidens favor, it is also clear that Trumps anti-socialism message resonated with many voters beyond Cuban Americans in South Florida.

Long term, Rodriguez and Rayasam agreed, is much more targeted and locally oriented appeals to Hispanic voters by both parties, and an understanding by Democrats especially that they cant be taken for granted.

Each panelist also identified a person, or an idea, that we will be hearing more of in the years ahead.

Mutnicks idea was litigation, and the person shell be watching is Democratic lawyer Marc Elias, who was general counsel to Hillary Clintons 2016 campaign. The 51-year-old Elias has taken the lead on challenging maps that Democrats argue are drawn with the aim of diluting the power of progressive voters, including minorities.

His knowledge of election law is profound, Mutnick said. And he's dedicated to helping achieve what Democrats feel to be fair maps. So to the extent that he can pursue that legal avenue throughout the next decade, that's going to be huge in different states for Democrats and getting maps that are more favorable to them.

Dixon sees in Tallahassee a Florida version of the progressive vs. establishment battles that have played out in Washington. The equivalent there of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is an Orlando-area state representative named Anna Eskamani, a 30-year-old Iranian American.

She's very progressive, kind of goes after her own party on Twitter, is kind of expected to at least consider running for governor in 2022 even though she's relatively young, Dixon said. She's become a force within the progressive side of the Florida Democratic Party. And I would suspect that it's going to be a name that gets a little more national attention within the next year or two, especially going into the 2022 cycle where she's expected to try to try to make some noise.

For her part, Rayasam sees Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican who is widely expected to run and win reelection in 2022, as having some national potential. He has won both his governors races by huge margins, she notes. He's pretty popular here. There hasn't been a Democrat that's been able to really even touch or get close to him. And I think we're going to see I'm curious to see what he does with his popularity here in Texas, whether he translates that into national ambitions.

Rodriguez closed the conversation with what may be the safest bet: Continued interest in shaping state politics, as the narrow balance of power at the national level raises the stakes everywhere. Politics and money at the state level is the long-term trend to watch, Rodriguez said. I think there's a recognition that to make inroads at the national level, you've got to look down the ballot.

As progressive groups finish licking wounds from 2020, many will likely regroup for a new battle, Rodriguez said: I think a lot of these organizations are going to try and do what they didn't accomplish this year.

The rest is here:
The election-night fiasco in the states that will haunt Democrats for a decade - POLITICO