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Why did Republicans do so well last Tuesday? Democratic commentators are suggesting it was because the 2014 electorate was more typical of a midterm electorate, with Republicans turning out and Democrats staying home.

Evan Vucci, File, Associated Press

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It was a heady day for many Republican candidates last Wednesday as they woke up victors in races they were not expected to win. The new governor of Massachusetts considered the second-most liberal state in the nation is a Republican. Republican statewide candidates did well in Vermont, New Hampshire and Connecticut, winning at least 48 percent of the vote.

Why did Republicans do so well last Tuesday? Democratic commentators are suggesting it was because the 2014 electorate was more typical of a midterm electorate, with Republicans turning out and Democrats staying home. And that meant the Democratic coalition that elected Barack Obama in 2008 and again in 2012 simply didnt show up at the polls.

There is some truth there. According to exit polls commissioned by The New York Times and by ABC News, the 2014 electorate was 8 percent more Republican than in 2012. In Colorado specifically, where incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Udall lost his re-election bid, voter turnout for Democrats was at a record low.

And some elements of the Obama coalition disappeared. For example, voter turnout among young people was half what it was in 2012. Women came out in smaller numbers. On the other hand, nonwhite voters, who also helped Obama win twice, did turn out in record numbers in Southern states such as Louisiana and Georgia. Nevertheless, their support for Democratic candidates was overwhelmed by a strong Republican turnout.

Yet that isnt the whole story. Another explanation is increasing dissatisfaction with the direction of the nation. Nearly two-thirds of voters said they felt the nation is on the wrong track. Part of that dissatisfaction is continued uneasiness about the economy. Seventy percent of voters felt the economy was still in bad shape.

Not surprisingly, unhappy voters blame the current administration and, by association, those who are connected with it the candidates of the presidents party. In this case, it was Democrats. Eight years ago it was Republicans.

Yet there are deeper problems for Democrats. Republicans simply did a much better job of reaching voters, particularly those who traditionally vote for Democrats. For example, in 2008 two-thirds of Asian voters supported the Democratic candidate for the U.S. House in their district, and that ratio increased to three-fourths in 2012. But in 2014, 51 percent of Asians voted for the Republican House candidate.

Excerpt from:
Richard Davis: Are Democrats in trouble for 2016?