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You are forgiven if you did not realize that New York state is holding primary elections on Tuesday. There are a few other things going on in the world, from bombshell Supreme Court rulings to January 6 hearings to raging inflation. And the lack of attention has been enhanced by Governor Kathy Hochul, who has run a strikingly understated campaign, with few rallies and retail events, a strategy that has drawn alarmed hand-wringing from prominent fellow Democrats. Polls give Hochul a wide lead over her Democratic primary rivals, Long Island congressman Tom Suozzi and city public advocate Jumaane Williams. But Tuesdays outcome isnt the only concern.

Risky and stupid would be my assessment, a senior state Democrat says of Hochuls approach to trying to win her first full four-year term. The Rose Garden strategy, the prevent defense, almost always results in failure. I think shell make it through Tuesday. But shes lost the chance to engage voters and make herself better known through the primary process. If shes planning to follow this same strategy in November, then Im really scared.

Such worries are overblown, says Hochuls campaign spokesman, Jerrel Harvey. We have a paid field program out there. Weve got very robust digital engagement, probably the largest in state history. Were also doing paid mail and TV ads. Hochul has spent nearly $16 million on TV, radio, and digital adsand preserved more than $12 million for the general election. Last weeks Supreme Court rulings, striking down New Yorks law concealed carry gun law and overturning Roe v. Wade, had the collateral effect of handing Hochul free publicity platforms, demonstrating the power of incumbency. Even with our resources, we have to make decisions on where we invest. It cant just be a summer full of having our canvassers out there knocking on doors. Thats incredibly cost-intensive, Harvey says. We know that people pay attention closer to election time. So you have to be strategic and rev up the engine.

Which makes sense, unless the engine has idled too low and too long. I think people underestimate the trouble in blue states like New York when its a bad environment for Democrats nationally, a veteran Democratic consultant says. And this year is a very bad environment. I think theres enough GOP money out there this cycle that if polls show the Republican nominee getting within five or 10 points of Hochul, you could see an avalanche of independent expenditure money on the Republican side.

Tuesdays voting will also determine Hochuls opponent. Conservative Long Island congressman Lee Zeldin is the favorite in the Republican primary, but Andrew Giuliani, son of Rudy, has a real shot. Zeldin had been endorsed by former vice president Mike Pence; former president Donald Trump has so far not backed Giuliani, avoiding a proxy fight he could lose.

Still, the most intriguing action on Tuesdayand the greater chance of embarrassment for Hochulwill come on the Democratic undercard. Her first choice of lieutenant governor, Brian Benjamin, resigned in April after being indicted on campaign-finance charges (Benjamin has pleaded not guilty). Her second choice, Antonio Delgado, quit an upstate congressional seat to take the job in May. Delgado, like the governor, has spent plenty on TV and digital adsmore than $4 million since becoming L.G.while doing roughly one campaign appearance per day, most of them fairly low-key, before ramping up the pace along with Hochul on the weekend before the primary. His strongest primary opponent, progressive activist Ana Mara Archila, is trying to exploit Tuesdays likely low turnoutplus an endorsement from Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezto pull off a major upset. Hes doing the same thing lieutenant governors have always donestay quiet, smile in pictures, and say nothing about the solutions that people desperately need, Archila tells me. I want the lieutenant governor to amplify the voices of people to create productive tension. I actually think we should invest in affordable housing instead of giving hundreds of millions of dollars for a football stadium.

Only six weeks ago, Lieutenant Governor Delgado launched his campaign and the response has been tremendous, responds his campaign manager, Allyson Marcus. Antonio is the only candidate in the race who will work in tandem with the governor to deliver for New Yorkers and protect families.

Delgado has vastly more campaign money than Archila, and the backing of influential labor unions. She has the support of grassroots groups, like Make the Road Action, that are practiced at harnessing progressive energy. Archila has run a dogged and meticulous grassroots campaign, says Bruce Gyory, a Democratic New York consultant. And progressives do best in caucuses and low-turnout primaries. The numbers so far in early voting are very low. Do I think she gets to the 45 or so percent shed need? I dont think so. But I wouldnt bet the mortgage on it.

One reason for the likely low voter turnout is that this primary has been greatly overshadowed by the one happening in August. For decades all New York primaries took place in September, followed by general elections in November. Simple enough. In 2012 a court ruling split the federal and local race primaries; this year a different court moved the federal races to August. Its the August primary thats been provoking headlines, because the states congressional redistricting mess has created dramatic clashes between Manhattans two oldest incumbents, Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler, and between a clown cars worth of candidates, including, very recently, former mayor Bill de Blasio, in a new district spanning Lower Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn.

The governor stands to have a complicated enough fall herself, whether the Republican nominee turns out to be Zeldin or Giuliani. Having an outspoken populist on the Democratic ticket with her, instead of her chosen lieutenant governor candidate, would make Hochuls general election more interesting than shed prefer.

Excerpt from:
People Underestimate the Trouble in Blue States: Are Democrats Sleeping on the New York Governors Race? - Vanity Fair