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Like some exotic bird of prey that migrates back every other year, national Democratic strategists are expected to again circle Southern Illinois in 2018, intent on wrenching two putatively vulnerable Metro East congressional districts away from Republicans.

On paper, its easy to see why they keep returning.

Illinois 12th and 13th districts are held by two relatively new Republican incumbents: Mike Bost of Murphysboro, in the 12th District, and Rodney Davis of Taylorville, in the 13th.

The 12th was, not that long ago, home base to one of Congress most powerful and longest-serving Democrats. The 13th was drawn by Democrats to include the states flagship university and its rich cache of young, left-leaning voters. Neither Bost nor Davis has ever broken 60 percent in a general election a low bar for incumbents in todays gerrymandered political landscape.

In theory, both districts should be ripe for the taking. But its a theory that has repeatedly failed to translate into reality. Both incumbents have been targeted by national Democrats each time theyve run in the past. Yet each victory margin has been wider than the one before.

Still, Democratic strategists say next year could be different. The election of Republican President Donald Trump, they say, has angered and revived downstate Illinois once-dominant, lately dormant Democrats. Wide fields of potential Democratic challengers are lining up early in both districts.

Both Congressman Bost and Congressman Davis voted for the repeal bills (to undo Obamacare), which would be devastating for Southern Illinois families and older Americans, said Rachel Irwin, spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Both these representatives will be held accountable.

While Democratic challengers can be expected to play up the controversial health care vote, the Republican incumbents will almost certainly play the Nancy Pelosi card, reminding voters that a Democratic takeover of Congress will mean putting the unpopular Democratic leader from California in the third-highest position in the country.

Regardless of who the Democrats select, their nominee will have a difficult time justifying lockstep support for Nancy Pelosis extreme agenda in Washington, Bost spokesman George OConnor said in an emailed statement last week. ... [W]e are confident that we have the values, the message, and the resources to stop Nancy Pelosi from taking control of this seat.

National ranking sites list both Republican incumbents as odds-on favorites but not sure things for re-election next year. The Cook Political Report, for example, downgraded Davis district in May from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

Downstate Illinois has trended away from Democrats, and Davis appeared to have locked down this seat last year, states the site. But in a wave environment, this Democratic-drawn seat could still come into play.

Bost first won his 12th District seat in 2014, unseating one-term Democrat Bill Enyart. Prior to Enyart, powerful longtime Rep. Jerry Costello, D-Belleville, had held the seat for 25 years.

Bosts ascension has stood as a key example of Southern Illinois political transformation in recent years from Democrat to Republican making it symbolically as well as numerically urgent to Democrats to get the seat back. Bost, now seeking his third term from his Carbondale-area base, already faces more than a half-dozen Democrats who say they might run next year.

It was a field of relative unknowns until last week, when St. Clair County States Attorney Brendan Kelly confirmed to the Post-Dispatch that he is strongly considering seeking the Democratic nomination for the district in March. Kelly indicated he could have an announcement as early as next week.

A Kelly nomination, with St. Clair Countys Democratic machine fully behind it, could make the November 2018 general election a regional showdown between the urban-suburban Metro East and a large, mostly rural swath of southwestern Illinois.

Rep. Bost is proud to stand on his record in Congress, which includes legislation hes introduced to help our steelworkers combat unfair foreign trade practices, to empower our farmers and small business owners, and to ensure our veterans get the quality care they deserve, said the statement by OConnor, Bosts spokesman. Rep. Bost continues to receive broad-based support from across the district and across the political spectrum.

Other possible Democratic challengers for Bosts seat include David Bequette of Columbia; Nathan Colombo of Carbondale; Adam King of Alton; Pat McMahan of Mascoutah; Chris Miller of Roxana; and Dean Pruitt of Millstadt.

In the 13th District, Davis, seeking his fourth term, has been a perpetual target for Democrats for his entire tenure in Congress, in part because of the way he initially won the seat in 2012: by 1,002 votes, or 0.03 percent of the total cast. It was the second-closest congressional race in the country that year.

Though Davis won two subsequent elections with percentages in the high 50s including a solid victory over former Madison County Chief Circuit Judge Ann Callis in 2014 that first near-loss continues to entice national Democrats.

Among Davis potential Democratic challengers next year is Bloomington physician David Gill, the nominee who almost beat Davis in 2012 and who has tried again since with less success. Also considering a run is Illinois state Rep. Carol Ammons, D-Urbana, who as an African-American woman could bring new political complications to the contest.

Springfield fundraiser Betsy Londrigan has been floated as a potential Democratic candidate. Montgomery County Board member Dillon C. Clark of Litchfield also may run. And there has been talk in the party of drafting state Sen. Andy Manar of Bunker Hill, a popular rural Democrat, but he has so far demurred.

Davis spokesperson Ashley Phelps argued that Davis has cultivated a bipartisan approach to lawmaking that is unusual in todays Congress, and said he will continue to stress his core issues of jobs and economic development. You have seen Congressman Davis make a lot of progress with swing voters and Democrats alike, she said.

The fact that national Democrats keep targeting the seat, she said, isnt surprising, given its demographic mix and political history. Democrats drew this district, so theyre always going to keep trying.

Davis campaign records show he had almost $580,000 cash on hand at the end of March. Bost had a little over $205,000.

The 12th District includes all of St. Clair County and part of Madison County, and stretches south to Cairo and east past Mount Vernon. The 13th district takes in part of Madison County and the region immediately above it and reaches northeast to encompass Decatur, Springfield and Champaign-Urbana.

The other Illinois congressional district in Southern Illinois, the 15th, runs along the entire southern half of the states eastern border and reaches across to the edge of the Metro East. Eleven-term incumbent Rep. John Shimkus, R-Collinsville who faced no Democratic opponent in his 2016 re-election is considered safe.

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Once again, national Democrats are targeting two GOP Metro East congressional districts - STLtoday.com