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Biden is unpopular in New Jersey, with an August poll showing 52 percent of voters disapproved of his job performance.

Though vastly outnumbered, Republicans have repeatedly outpaced Democrats in monthly new voter registrations.

And Republicans, having worked out a compromise legislative district map with Democrats last year, are for the first time in decades running under a map that wasnt drawn exclusively by their opponents.

Democrats after Labor Day began a near-universal pushback against Republicans on protecting abortion rights, highlighting Republican opponents sometimes inflammatory anti-abortion statements. Feeling the strength of the issue, some began to grow more at ease about their electoral prospects. But not even a week later, federal authorities released an explosive indictment of Menendez (D-N.J.) that has dominated media coverage since.

Republicans hope the indictment could cause voters already souring on the president to rethink casting ballots for Democrats, even though Biden and Menendez are not on the ticket.

Culture wars and alleged corruption werent the campaign issues Democrats prepared for. Following the 2021 election, when Murphy defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli by a surprisingly close three points and Democrats lost seven seats in the Legislature, party leaders promised to focus more on affordability a perennial issue in this high-cost, high-tax state.

We clearly need to touch more people. We need to get at more kitchen tables, Murphy said shortly after the election.

That culminated in a StayNJ tax credit for seniors that would provide up to $6,500 for incomes up to $500,000. The credit engineered by Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin was one of the last actions Democratic legislative leaders took before breaking for summer. And while most Republicans joined Democrats to vote for it, it drew their skepticism as an election year stunt, as it wont take effect until 2026 and includes provisions that would allow it to be delayed.

The main issue we have is a proven track record of running the state appropriately. Thats why our coffers look good, our budgets were solid the last two years and people trust our leadership, state Senate President Nick Scutari said.

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New Jerseys GOP finally has a chance to flip the Statehouse. - POLITICO