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Democrats are growing gloomier in their outlook for the midterms next year amid President BidenJoe BidenBiden restates commitment to 'one China' policy on Taiwan in call with Xi Biden raises human rights with China's Xi during four hour meeting Biden, Xi hold 'candid' discussion amid high tensions MOREs poor approval ratings, nagging economic issues and GOP advantages in the redistricting process.

Sen. Patrick LeahyPatrick Joseph LeahyLeahy retirement shakes up Vermont politics The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - Trump officials face legal consequences over defying subpoenas Sen. Patrick Leahy says he won't seek reelection MOREs (D-Vt.) announcement Monday that he will retire cast another spotlight on the growing uncertainty over whether Democrats will be able to keep control of the Senate and House.

Leahy is 81, has served eight terms and said it was time for a new generation to represent Vermont.

It is time to put down the gavel. It is time to pass the torch to the next Vermonter, he said at a press conference at the Vermont State House.

His seat also is unlikely to be a big GOP target given the Democratic leanings of Vermont.

Yet it was easy to see how the prospect of losing the Senate majority in a chamber now split 50-50 between the parties could be a factor for a veteran senator to decide to hang it up.

Theres also the growing prospect that Republicans capture the House, which means the chances of Democrats passing new laws will fall dramatically.

Leahy is far from the first Democrat to announce their retirement.

Already three senior House Democrats who were expected to cruise to reelection next year, Reps. Mike DoyleMichael (Mike) F. DoyleDemocrats brace for flood of retirements after Virginia rout Pennsylvania Republican becomes latest COVID-19 breakthrough case in Congress House passes bills to secure telecommunications infrastructure MORE (Pa.), David PriceDavid Eugene PriceDemocrats brace for flood of retirements after Virginia rout North Carolina legislature approves new US House map Democracy's sudden peril was an inside-job MORE (N.C.) and John YarmuthJohn Allen YarmuthFighting Biden's dangerous reshaping of the Federal Reserve Democrats brace for flood of retirements after Virginia rout The Hill's Morning Report Presented by ExxonMobil House sprints for Build Back Better, infrastructure votes today MORE (Ky.), have announced they will not seek new terms.

It definitely seems like something changed in August, said Kyle Kondik, an analyst at the University of Virginias Center for Politics, who pointed to Bidens sharp drop in approval ratings after the messy U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, which he called a catalyst for the changing political environment.

Democrats loss in Novembers gubernatorial contest in Virginia and a near loss in New Jersey have also dimmed Democratic moods.

There are lots of other problems that have emerged this summer. COVID hasnt gone away, inflation, gas prices. The public is just in kind of a surly mood and the results from two weeks ago were not good for Democrats, Kondik added.

Kondik says no one can know for sure all the reasons why Leahy decided to step down at a time when 81 isnt that old for holding office in Washington. But he said the move will be interpreted as waning confidence among Democrats about their ability to hold onto power.

When senior members retire its sort of interpreted as a tacit acknowledgment of the environment, he said. There have been some senior Democrats in the House who have retired who also, like Leahy, probably would have easily won reelection had they run again.

It may be that these are senior members who were on the fence and were thinking, Boy, its looking more and more possible that the Republicans could be in the majority in both the House and the Senate and do I really want to go back to serving in the minority? he added.

Democratic strategists acknowledge the political environment doesnt look good at the moment but say theres time to turn around Bidens sagging poll numbers, which was a headwind for candidates in Virginia and New Jersey earlier this month.

Democrats did get some good news Monday, as lawmakers from both parties attended a signing ceremony for the bipartisan infrastructure bill that represents a significant win for Biden.

If you look at all the polling, were not in the best shape. Hopefully things are going to change before the midterms next year, said Jim Manley, a Democratic strategist and former senior Senate aide.

As recently as May, Leahy had seemed to be poised to run for a ninth term. Six months ago, he was asking his colleagues to support his reelection campaign if he decided to go ahead with one.

He held a fundraiser in May and raised $300,000 for his campaign account during the first quarter of the year.

Marcelle Leahy began treatment for a chronic form of leukemia earlier this year, and that may have factored into her husbands decision to leave Congress.

Some Democratic senators were surprised by Leahys news.

Im always surprised when anybody puts in their retirement, but I think his situation is such that hes given a lot of wonderful years, and you know about his wife, said Sen. Mazie HironoMazie Keiko HironoSanders backs Kaiser Permanente workers ahead of Monday strike Democrats scramble for path forward after election setbacks Democrats ramp up filibuster talks after voting rights setback MORE (D-Hawaii).

Steven S. Smith, a political science professor at Washington University in St. Louis, said its perfectly reasonable for a senator to decide to move on after serving more than 45 years in the Senate.

Heres a guy retiring more or less when he should, when hes over 80, still reasonably healthy and has some other things he wants to do with his life, he said. I cant help but think that thats the primary consideration.

But Smith noted that Leahys ability to hold onto his post as Senate president pro tempore, which comes with many perks including the second-largest security detail in Congress and extra office space in the Capitol, is uncertain.

Whether hes counting on the Senate to turn or not, Im not sure, he said. The Senate, anyone would say, is up for grabs. Maybe a 50-50 proposition.

Smith also said theres a better than 50-50 chance that the House flips, which means that Democrats ability to pass landmark legislation after 2023 is at serious risk.

He said if Republicans are in the majority after 2022, it would affect what legislative record the next Congress could develop and what role Leahy could have in that process.

And besides, being in Congress right now is more or less unpleasant. Its just not the case that you can accomplish surprising things by working with the other side, he added.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) put out a statement asserting that Republicans have no chance of picking up Leahys vacant seat next year.

Vermont is a blue state that has not elected a Republican to statewide federal office in more than 20 years and Democrats look forward to winning this Senate seat in 2022, DSCC Chairman Gary PetersGary PetersSen. Patrick Leahy says he won't seek reelection Hillicon Valley The race to report cyber breaches Senators move to include 72 hour timeline for cyber incident reporting in defense bill MORE (Mich.) said in a statement.

A senior GOP aide, however, said its a sign of the times and the favorable political environment for Republicans that the DSCC even had to put out a statement insisting that theres no chance of Leahys seat flipping in what has been a reliably blue state.

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Midterm gloom grows for Democrats | TheHill - The Hill