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Opinion: Did Democrats or independents help Kari Lake and other America First candidates win by voting for them? A look at turnout data suggest otherwise.

One of the theories floated in the aftermath of Arizonas primaries was that non-Republican voters flocked to the GOP side to vote forthe most extreme candidates.

That is, they acted on a coordinated campaign to set up Democrats for a win in the general election.

It would be a convenient explanation for the sweeping victories by America First candidates.

But that scenario is highly unlikely.

While statewide figures are not readily available, the recent canvassing, or formal tallying, of votes in Maricopa County which account for nearly 60% of all ballots cast in Arizona is illustrative.

The county did experience a higher-than-usual turnout in the Aug. 2 Republican primary (59%), considerably higher than for the Democratic primary (47%).

The GOP turnout is some 9 percentage points higher than the previous midterm primary in 2018. But theres no evidence Democrats defected; their turnout was up this year, too, though by a more modest couple of percentage points.

Could independents have givenfar-right conservatives a boost? Their turnout in Arizona primaries hit a new high of 13.7% this year, and a greater percentage of them opted for a Republican ballot than in 2018.

Nearly 75,000 Maricopa County independents requested a GOP ballot (it pushed up the Republican turnout to 59%, from about 51%).Thattheoretically could have propelled gubernatorial hopeful Kari Lake to her narrow victory of fewer than 14,000 votes in metro Phoenix.

But theres little evidence to prove that, as well. Independents have been steadily increasing their participation in primaries in recent elections, their turnout climbing a couple of percentage points each time. In 2016, it was 8%; in 2018, 10%; and in 2020, 12%. The new high this year is consistent with that trend.

Like Democrats and Republicans, a majority of independentsvoted by early ballot, which tends to trend more favorably for moderate candidates. That was demonstrated on election night, when the early results (mail-in ballots are tabulated first) showed Lake to be trailing.

Independents in Arizona, I believe, view partisan politics with disinterest at best and disdain at worst. The few (but growing number) of them who vote in primaries cast a ballot to advance more moderate candidates or to vote against partisans. (I count myself among them.)

That approach favors GOP establishment candidates like Karrin Taylor Robson. If anything, independents probably helped Robson make the race for governor a little closer than otherwise.

The logical explanation for the high turnout in the GOP primary is simply a greater interest generated this year, in which Trump-backed candidates challengedthose representing the more traditional Republican Party, endorsed by establishment players such as Gov. Doug Ducey and former Vice President Mike Pence.

Anargument certainly can be made about Democratic operatives spending money and time to promote extreme GOP candidates while attacking more moderate ones. Mysterious dark money campaigns both at the national leveland in Arizona lend credibility to that contention.

It is, however, more difficult to show a cause and effect. Were partisan Republicans, who make up the lions share of primary voters, dupedinto voting for Lake, or for any of the America First candidates? Or did those dark-money campaigns merely strengthen thesupport that was already there?

Misleading?Group behind Kari Lake ad may have to disclose its donors

The GOP portion of the 106,000 election day votes in Maricopa County 4 of 5 ballots castthat day were Republican decisively powered Lake past Robson. That sliver of the Republican electorate is more inclined to believe early balloting isnt as secureas in-person voting, a premise pushed by Lake and the America First slate.

The results set up a general election that both far-right conservatives and far-left liberals want. As always, the decision come November will be left up to moderates and independents.

Reach Abe Kwok at akwok@azcentral.com. On Twitter: @abekwok.

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Link:
Kari Lake won with help from Democrats? Let's bust that theory - The Arizona Republic