How Party Identification of US Voters Has Shifted Since the 1990s – Pew Research Center
Pew Research Center conducted this analysis to explore partisan identification among U.S. registered voters across major demographic groups and how voters partisan affiliation has shifted over time. It also explores the changing composition of voters overall and the partisan coalitions.
For this analysis, we used annual totals of data from Pew Research Center telephone surveys (1994-2018) and online surveys (2019-2023) among registered voters. All telephone survey data was adjusted to account for differences in how people respond to surveys on the telephone compared with online surveys (refer to Appendix A for details).
All online survey data is from the Centers nationally representative American Trends Panel. The surveys were conducted in both English and Spanish. Each survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, age, education, race and ethnicity and other categories. Read more about the ATPs methodology, as well as how Pew Research Center measures many of the demographic categories used in this report.
The contours of the 2024 political landscape are the result of long-standing patterns of partisanship, combined with the profound demographic changes that have reshaped the United States over the past three decades.
Many of the factors long associated with voters partisanship remain firmly in place. For decades, gender, race and ethnicity, and religious affiliation have been important dividing lines in politics. This continues to be the case today.
Yet there also have been profound changes in some cases as a result of demographic change, in others because of dramatic shifts in the partisan allegiances of key groups.
The combined effects of change and continuity have left the countrys two major parties at virtual parity: About half of registered voters (49%) identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, while 48% identify as Republicans or lean Republican.
In recent decades, neither party has had a sizable advantage, but the Democratic Party has lost the edge it maintained from 2017 to 2021. (Explore this further in Chapter 1.)
Pew Research Centers comprehensive analysis of party identification among registered voters based on hundreds of thousands of interviews conducted over the past three decades tracks the changes in the country and the parties since 1994. Among the major findings:
The partisan coalitions are increasingly different. Both parties are more racially and ethnically diverse than in the past. However, this has had a far greater impact on the composition of the Democratic Party than the Republican Party.
The share of voters who are Hispanic has roughly tripled since the mid-1990s; the share who are Asian has increased sixfold over the same period. Today, 44% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters are Hispanic, Black, Asian, another race or multiracial, compared with 20% of Republicans and Republican leaners. However, the Democratic Partys advantages among Black and Hispanic voters, in particular, have narrowed somewhat in recent years. (Explore this further in Chapter 8.)
Education and partisanship: The share of voters with a four-year bachelors degree keeps increasing, reaching 40% in 2023. And the gap in partisanship between voters with and without a college degree continues to grow, especially among White voters. More than six-in-ten White voters who do not have a four-year degree (63%) associate with the Republican Party, which is up substantially over the past 15 years. White college graduates are closely divided; this was not the case in the 1990s and early 2000s, when they mostly aligned with the GOP. (Explore this further in Chapter 2.)
Beyond the gender gap: By a modest margin, women voters continue to align with the Democratic Party (by 51% to 44%), while nearly the reverse is true among men (52% align with the Republican Party, 46% with the Democratic Party). The gender gap is about as wide among married men and women. The gap is wider among men and women who have never married; while both groups are majority Democratic, 37% of never-married men identify as Republicans or lean toward the GOP, compared with 24% of never-married women. (Explore this further in Chapter 3.)
A divide between old and young: Today, each younger age cohort is somewhat more Democratic-oriented than the one before it. The youngest voters (those ages 18 to 24) align with the Democrats by nearly two-to-one (66% to 34% Republican or lean GOP); majorities of older voters (those in their mid-60s and older) identify as Republicans or lean Republican. While there have been wide age divides in American politics over the last two decades, this wasnt always the case; in the 1990s there were only very modest age differences in partisanship. (Explore this further in Chapter 4.)
Education and family income: Voters without a college degree differ substantially by income in their party affiliation. Those with middle, upper-middle and upper family incomes tend to align with the GOP. A majority with lower and lower-middle incomes identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. There are no meaningful differences in partisanship among voters with at least a four-year bachelors degree; across income categories, majorities of college graduate voters align with the Democratic Party. (Explore this further in Chapter 6.)
Rural voters move toward the GOP, while the suburbs remain divided: In 2008, when Barack Obama sought his first term as president, voters in rural counties were evenly split in their partisan loyalties. Today, Republicans hold a 25 percentage point advantage among rural residents (60% to 35%). There has been less change among voters in urban counties, who are mostly Democratic by a nearly identical margin (60% to 37%). The suburbs perennially a political battleground remain about evenly divided. (Explore this further in Chapter 7.)
Growing differences among religious groups: Mirroring movement in the population overall, the share of voters who are religiously unaffiliated has grown dramatically over the past 15 years. These voters, who have long aligned with the Democratic Party, have become even more Democratic over time: Today 70% identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. In contrast, Republicans have made gains among several groups of religiously affiliated voters, particularly White Catholics and White evangelical Protestants. White evangelical Protestants now align with the Republican Party by about a 70-point margin (85% to 14%). (Explore this further in Chapter 5.)
In most cases, the partisan allegiances of voters do not change a great deal from year to year. Yet as this study shows, the long-term shifts in party identification are substantial and say a great deal about how the country and its political parties have changed since the 1990s.
The steadily growing alignment between demographics and partisanship reveals an important aspect of steadily growing partisan polarization. Republicans and Democrats do not just hold different beliefs and opinions about major issues, they are much more different racially, ethnically, geographically and in educational attainment than they used to be.
Yet over this period, there have been only modest shifts in overall partisan identification. Voters remain evenly divided, even as the two parties have grown further apart. The continuing close division in partisan identification among voters is consistent with the relatively narrow margins in the popular votes in most national elections over the past three decades.
Partisan identification provides a broad portrait of voters affinities and loyalties. But while it is indicative of voters preferences, it does not perfectly predict how people intend to vote in elections, or whether they will vote. In the coming months, Pew Research Center will release reports analyzing voters preferences in the presidential election, their engagement with the election and the factors behind candidate support.
Next year, we will release a detailed study of the 2024 election, based on validated voters from the Centers American Trends Panel. It will examine the demographic composition and vote choices of the 2024 electorate and will provide comparisons to the 2020 and 2016 validated voter studies.
The partisan identification study is based on annual totals from surveys conducted on the Centers American Trends Panel from 2019 to 2023 and telephone surveys conducted from 1994 to 2018. The survey data was adjusted to account for differences in how the surveys were conducted. For more information, refer to Appendix A.
How we adjusted historical measures of partisan identification for transition from telephone to web
Previous Pew Research Center analyses of voters party identification relied on telephone survey data. This report, for the first time, combines data collected in telephone surveys with data from online surveys conducted on the Centers nationally representative American Trends Panel.
Directly comparing answers from online and telephone surveys is complex because there are differences in how questions are asked of respondents and in how respondents answer those questions. Together these differences are known as mode effects.
As a result of mode effects, it was necessary to adjust telephone trends for leaned party identification in order to allow for direct comparisons over time.
In this report, telephone survey data from 1994 to 2018 is adjusted to align it with online survey responses. In 2014, Pew Research Center randomly assigned respondents to answer a survey by telephone or online. The party identification data from this survey was used to calculate an adjustment for differences between survey mode, which is applied to all telephone survey data in this report.
Please refer to Appendix A for more details.
Read this article:
How Party Identification of US Voters Has Shifted Since the 1990s - Pew Research Center
- Dan Osborn spurns Democrats, other parties whose help he sought in Senate race Nebraska Examiner - Nebraska Examiner - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- House Democrats Have Overwhelmingly Voted Against Our Law Enforcement Officers - GOP.gov - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Houston House Democratic primary gets uglier ahead of runoff - The Texas Tribune - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Here's what to know about the May 23 Idaho Democratic presidential caucus Idaho Capital Sun - Idaho Capital Sun - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- With sagging polls, could Biden hurt Democrats in critical New York House races? - Spectrum News NY1 - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Democratic filibuster of initiative petition bill exceeds 41 hours, sets new record Missouri Independent - Missouri Independent - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Thousands of Philly Democrats wrote in names other than Biden during Pa. Primary, data shows - NBC Philadelphia - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- JESSE WATTERS: If Democrats are going to lock up Republicans, maybe they need a taste of their own medicine - Fox News - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Attacked on abortion pivot, Hogan says 'we'll see if voters believe me' - The Washington Post - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- House Democrats launch probe of Trump's dinner with oil executives - The Washington Post - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Outside money in Oregon swing district prompts claims of Republican meddling Oregon Capital Chronicle - Oregon Capital Chronicle - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Democrats' Last Chance to Dump Biden? - WSJ - The Wall Street Journal - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Democrats seek escape hatch on vote to force Biden's hand on Israel - Axios - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Michigan Democrats want review of signatures submitted by GOP Senate candidates - Detroit Free Press - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Opinion | Democrats could sweep the 2024 elections and make major policy changes - The Washington Post - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Democrats face rupture over vote to force Israel arms shipments - Axios - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Will Maryland's 'uncommitted' primary voters sway Biden administration on Gaza cease-fire? - Maryland Matters - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Opinion | Can This Ex-Republican Revive Democrats in Rural Ohio? - The New York Times - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Who is Angela Alsobrooks? The Maryland Democrat faces Larry Hogan this fall - NPR - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Democrats look to band together after Maryland's bruising Senate primary - Yahoo News UK - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Democratic Georgia Senate retirements open seats for first time in decades - The Atlanta Journal Constitution - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Maryland Democrats battle for party's future and control of the Senate - NBC News - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- As House readies a vote on Israeli arms, Democrats whip members in opposition - Roll Call - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Sixteen Democrats join Republicans to override Biden's halt on bomb transfers to Israel - Middle East Eye - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Democrats Batter Bank Regulator Over F.D.I.C.'s 'Toxic' Workplace Culture - The New York Times - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Virginia: Two Democrats vie for chance to take on Wittman - Richmond Times-Dispatch - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Missouri Democrats' filibuster effort to make it harder to amend state constitution - NBC News - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Democrats, Republicans say higher education is valuable - Inside Higher Ed - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Fuel industry group targets Biden and Democrats in key states over emissions standards - NBC News - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- Johnson falls short with claim on Democrats backing of abortions up to the moment of birth - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel - May 18th, 2024 [May 18th, 2024]
- 3 out of 5 NV congressional Democrats want to let the mining industry party like it's 1872 Nevada Current - Nevada Current - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- As co-rulers of the House, the Democratic majority-in-waiting may have already arrived - The Washington Post - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Speaker Mike Johnson Survives Marjorie Taylor Greene Move to Oust Him - The New York Times - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Ex-GOP Gov. Hogan is popular with some Maryland Democrats, but not enough to put him in the Senate - The Associated Press - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Saturday letters: Pitfalls of unaffiliated voting; 'gullible' Democrats - The Providence Journal - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Nervous about falling behind the GOP, Democrats are wrestling with how to use AI - The Associated Press - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- If Democrats choose the teachers unions, Hispanics will choose their families instead - The Hill - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Democrats seek to make GOP pay in November for threats to reproductive rights - CBS News - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Noting campus protests, Democrats are preparing for intense action at their summer convention - The Associated Press - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- 15 House Democrats call on Biden to take border executive action - CBS News - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Trump criticizes Jewish Democrats as he attacks Biden over threat to withhold U.S. weapons to Israel - NBC News - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- How Democrats Hope to Limit Protests at the DNC in Chicago - TIME - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Analysis | No, Democrats didn't vote to give noncitizens a voice in Congress - The Washington Post - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Inside the College Democrats' Rebuke of Biden - The New York Times - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- In the Arizona Senate Race, Ruben Gallego Shows Democrats What It Takes to Win Back Latinos - WSJ - The Wall Street Journal - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Democrats, Sensing Shift on Abortion Rights Among Latinas, Push for More Gains - The New York Times - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Ex-GOP Gov. Hogan is popular with some Maryland Democrats, but not enough to put him in the Senate - Bowling Green Daily News - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Why Democrats Are Suddenly Excited About Florida - TIME - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Illinois Democrats' law changing the choosing of legislative candidates faces GOP opposition - The Associated Press - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Democrats push Biden for executive action to secure border - The Hill - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Democrats oppose Senate plan to ensure Biden is on Ohio ballot, while House skips voting on a fix - The Statehouse News Bureau - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Division among Democrats as 26 party members pen letter to Biden condemning withholding Israel aid - The Jerusalem Post - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Democrats Impeached Trump Over This - WSJ - The Wall Street Journal - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Democrats save Mike Johnson | Latest US politics news from The Economist - The Economist - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Most Democrats believe Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza - poll - The Jerusalem Post - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- McCarthy says he couldnt live with himself if he did deal with Democrats to save Speakership - The Hill - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Democrats never expected this Senate primary to have such high stakes - Semafor - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Column: Expect campus uprisings to cause headaches for Democrats this election - Los Angeles Times - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Abortion rights activists worry about Democrats piggybacking on the cause: This is not a ploy - The Guardian US - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Democrats look to flip the script on border security as Republicans decry political stunt - Washington Examiner - May 11th, 2024 [May 11th, 2024]
- Rep. DeBoyer rips House Democrats for discarding measure that protects state from countries of concern - Mi House ... - Michigan House Republicans - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- Democrats demand Biden take executive action on the border crisis - Fox Business - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- Democrats prepare to go on offense on immigration in the coming weeks - NBC News - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- Mike Johnson Becomes the Speaker of the Whole House. For Now. - The New York Times - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- Democrats vote to prevent ouster of Republican US House speaker by right-wing rebel - FRANCE 24 English - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- Video What are the odds Democrats will win the popular vote? - ABC News - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- Exclusive | Democrats Brace for Gaza War Protests at Convention in Chicago - The Wall Street Journal - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- Democrats Introduce Bill to Allow Medicaid Coverage of Doulas and Midwives - Truthout - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- Democrats work to keep protests from disrupting Chicago convention, with concerns over parallels to 1968 - ABC News - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- Majority of Democrats believe Israel is committing genocide - The New Arab - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- Idaho Democratic Party doubles legislative candidate numbers in the face of GOP supermajority Idaho Capital Sun - Idaho Capital Sun - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- Justice Sotomayor's health isn't the real problem for Democrats winning elections is - The Conversation - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- Why Beethoven's ninth appeals to democrats and despots alike - The Economist - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- Johnson Survives Greene's Ouster Attempt as Democrats Join GOP to Kill It - Yahoo! Voices - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- Atlantic County Democrats want faster mailing of ballots - Press of Atlantic City - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- Democrats impeached Trump for exactly what Biden is now doing to Israel - The Hill - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- 163 House Democrats Voted to Protect Speaker Mike Johnson's Job - GV Wire - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- Opinion | Trump Knows Dominance Wins. Someone Tell Democrats. - The New York Times - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- 'Terrifying': Democrats say they have plans to keep electors safe from political violence - USA TODAY - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
- Democrats step up campaign to block third parties - WSWS - May 9th, 2024 [May 9th, 2024]
Tags: