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DALLAS At St. Paul United Methodist Church, one of this citys oldest African American churches, fiery young pastor Richie Butler delivered a message last Sunday that hit home with the white woman sitting at the center of the second pew.

Dont get confused between success and significance, Butler said. This day! This is your moment! Dont miss your moment!

When Wendy Daviss turn came to give her own testimony, she began: Very fitting with your sermon today, pastor.

For Davis, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, success is looking all but out of reach. If there was a moment when she might have leveraged her national celebrity to break the Republicans 20-year lock on statewide office here, it appears to have passed. Davis has proven a disappointment as a candidate, and Democrats lament privately that her campaign has been a mess.

The question that remains to be answered on Election Day is more about significance: How much will Daviss candidacy have done, along with other Democratic efforts, toward making their party truly competitive in Texas?

Texas has 38 electoral votes second only to Californias 55 and putting it into play would change the balance of the nations politics.

Its the question right now among people who are watching this stuff: Can the Democrats win by losing, and where is that line? said James R. Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.

Recent public polls give Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott, the GOP nominee, a double-digit lead.

The latest bad news came on Thursday, with a University of Texas/Texas Tribune survey that showed Abbott 16points ahead of Davis. Her campaign noted that it was conducted over the Internet regarded as less reliable than surveying through traditional interviews and maintained that their internal numbers show the race is closer. But the Texas Tribune results are in line with a recent random sample telephone survey sponsored by Houston Public Media and KHOU-TV, which also put Abbott 16points over Davis.

One benchmark, Henson said, is whether Davis will do significantly better than 2010 Democratic nominee Bill White, the Houston mayor who lost to incumbent Rick Perry by close to 13points. If not, the results in November could undermine the idea that money and organization are the key to winning for Democrats in Texas.

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Has Wendy Davis helped or hurt the Democrats in Texas?