Even in Trump era, new poll shows a mixed outlook for Democrats in 2018 – Washington Post
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll offers conflicting forecasts for the 2018 midterm elections, with voters clearly preferring Democrats in control of Congress to check President Trump even as Republicans appear more motivated to show up at the polls.
A slight majority of registered voters 52 percent say they want Democrats to control the next Congress, while 38 percent favor Republican control to promote the presidents agenda, according to the poll.
Yet a surge in anti-Trump protests does not appear to have translated into heightened Democratic voter enthusiasm a signal that could temper Democrats hopes for retaking the House majority next year.
Trumps low approval rating, which dropped to 36 percent from 42 percent in April, could also be significant if it fails to improve in the next year.
The survey also suggests that a shifting electorate could end up propelling Democrats to major gains if voters who have skipped prior midterm elections show up to cast ballots in 2018.
The snapshot emerges just as Congress has hit a major stumbling block in its effort to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, with Republican leaders in the Senate falling short this week of the votes they need to advance their deeply unpopular bill.
Although the poll was conducted before the collapse of the health-care push, the results suggest fresh uncertainty as to whether Democrats can recruit strong candidates and mobilize voters despite negative views of the Republican agenda.
Republicans currently hold a 24-seat advantage in the House, and Democrats have pointed to the spike in activism, Trumps unpopularity and voters general preference for Democratic congressional candidates as evidence that the majority could be in play.
The Post-ABC poll shows that Republicans actually hold the advantage in enthusiasm at this early point in the campaign cycle. A 65 percent majority of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say they are certain they will vote next year, versus 57 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.
Among Americans who did not cast ballots in the last midterm elections, in 2014, Democrats and Republicans are about equally as likely to say they plan to vote in 2018 suggesting there is not a disproportionate number of newly motivated Democrats ready to come off the sidelines next year.
Independents, meanwhile, prefer Democratic control as a bulwark against Trumps agenda by the same 14-point margin as Democrats.
And then there is history: The party holding the White House, with few exceptions in the modern era, has tended to lose congressional seats in midterm elections.
We have a unique opportunity to flip control of the House of Representatives in 2018, Rep. Ben Ray Lujn (D-N.M.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, wrote in a memo last month. This is about much more than one race: the national environment, unprecedented grass roots energy and impressive Democratic candidates stepping up to run deep into the battlefield leave no doubt that Democrats can take back the House next fall.
Democrats, however, already this year have suffered a series of losses in special elections for open House seats none more crushing than their failure to win a suburban Atlanta race that drew more campaign and outside committee spending than any other House contest in U.S. history.
While Democrats came closer to winning these heavily Republican districts than in the past, the losses have spurred infighting and questions about how Democrats can best hone their strategy going into 2018.
The survey results suggest some reasons that Democrats have not been able to capitalize yet on voter antipathy toward Trump. For one thing, Americans who strongly disapprove of Trump do not appear to be any more motivated to vote than the average American.
Just over 6 in 10 of those who strongly disapprove of Trumps job performance say they are also certain to vote in 2018 midterm elections. Overall, 58 percent of voters say they are certain to vote next year, while 72 percent of strong Trump backers are certain they will vote.
That result contrasts with a Post poll taken soon after the presidential election and the post-inauguration Womens March that found Democrats more interested in increasing their involvement in politics.
Thirty-five percent of Democrats said then that they were more likely to become involved in political causes in the next year, compared with 21 percent of Republicans and independents. Nearly half of liberal Democrats and 4 in 10 Democratic women said they would become more engaged.
Now, it seems, the potential for a Democratic wave rides on whether the party can turn out voters who have tended to skip past midterm elections.
Democrats were more likely than Republicans to skip the 2014 congressional elections, and the poll finds that among those who sat out 2014 and now say they are certain to vote in 2018, Democrats have a major advantage. By 64 percent to 30 percent, more prefer Democrats as a check against Trump than Republicans who will support Trumps agenda.
On the other hand, there is evidence that Trumps struggle to pass major legislation has not sapped Republicans motivation to turn out.
Theres no significant difference between Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who say Trump is making significant progress toward his goals as president and those leaning Republicans who say he is not. About two-thirds of each say they are certain to vote in midterm elections.
And despite Trumps dismal approval ratings, only slightly more voters say their congressional vote will be to oppose Trump 24 percent versus the 20 percent who say they will vote to support him. Just over half of voters say Trump will not be a factor in their votes.
The poll did not ask a generic congressional ballot question an indicator often cited by party strategists but recent polls show that voters favor Democrats over Republicans for Congress by between six and 10 percentage points when asked whom they would rather vote for.
A report by the University of Virginias Center for Politics last month suggested that if Democrats maintain at least a six-point advantage on this question, they would be predicted to win enough congressional races to take control of the House in 2019.
While Democrats are heavily targeting the House in 2018, the Senate is seen as a tougher prize. Of the 33 seats in that chamber being contested, 25 belong to Democrats or independents who caucus with them. Of the eight GOP seats, forecasters and party campaign committees consider only two to be genuinely competitive.
The Post-ABC poll was conducted July 10-13 among a random national sample of 1,001 adults reached on cellular and landline phones. The margin of sampling error for overall results is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points and four points among the sample of 859 registered voters.
Scott Clement contributed to this report.
Here is the original post:
Even in Trump era, new poll shows a mixed outlook for Democrats in 2018 - Washington Post
- Opinion | This Trial of the Century Is 100. Its Lessons Could Save the Democrats. - The New York Times - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Democrats Inspire Vicious, Escalating Attacks on ICE - The White House (.gov) - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- John Kerry says 'Trump was right', Democrats allowed migrant 'siege' of border - BBC - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- New Survey Results: RI Democrats and Republicans are living in different realities - Salve Regina University - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- DNC chair on the path to winning back voters and lessons Democrats can learn from Mamdani - PBS - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Top House Democrats demand release of Epstein files that mention Trump - The Guardian - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Jeffriess speech is proof that Democrats are just performative and reactionary - The Hill - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Mamdani's far-left allies aim to primary Hakeem Jeffries and other NYC House Democrats - Fox News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Michigan Democrats begin highlighting constituents impacted by Medicaid cuts in Trump tax bill - Michigan Advance - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Gavin Newsom swings through South Carolina, where Democrats will play pivotal 2028 nominating role - AP News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Democrats Ignored What Their Voters Were Telling ThemAnd It Cost Them Everything - Vanity Fair - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Republicans and Democrats Finally Agree on Nuclear. Its the Industry Thats the Problem. - Politico - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Hawley rebukes Democrats' heated rhetoric after attacks on ICE, border patrol facilities: 'Knock it off' - Fox News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Opinion | The Gender Gap That Ate the Democrats - The New York Times - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Letter: Why Democrats are losing ground with minority voters - Reading Eagle - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Ex-gov says Democrats need to rally behind a mayoral candidate, just not Mamdani - PIX11 - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Beyond Democrats and Republicans, CT legislators split into special interests. See what they are. - Hartford Courant - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- After Mamdanis Win, Some Democrats Are Determined to Stop Him - The New York Times - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Democrats retreat on climate: Its one of the more disappointing turnabouts - Politico - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Gavin Newsom swings through South Carolina, where Democrats will play pivotal 2028 nominating role - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Democrats call for probe into National Weather Service cuts after Texas floods - MSNBC News - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- "There needs to be blood": Democrats' voters tell them to "get shot" in Trump resistance push - Axios - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Democrats demand CISA explain how its supporting election offices - StateScoop - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Media, Democrats try to blame Trump for Texas flood deaths - Washington Times - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Gavin Newsom swings through South Carolina, where Democrats will play pivotal 2028 nominating role - AJC.com - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Democrats try to spoil Trumps victory party by slamming his greatest domestic win - CNN - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Democrats 'seem to think that poor people are stupid,' Scott Bessent says - Politico - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Opinion | Six things Democrats need to do if they want to win elections again - The Washington Post - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Trump's $5 trillion debt ceiling strategy could force Democrats to the negotiating table - Fox Business - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- How Democrats Will Make Trump Own His Disastrous Spending Bill - Crooked Media - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Opinion | D.C. Democrats tarnish themselves by resisting ranked-choice voting - The Washington Post - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Democrats might be overthinking strategy to recapture voters - The Hill - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Congressional District 7 race: Democrats Grijalva, Hernandez lead the pack in fundraising - KJZZ - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Democrats Must Find Their Nerve - And Fast - CityWatch LA - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- What Democrats Think They Can Learn From Zohran Mamdani - NOTUS - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Virginia Democrats are eyeing 13 potential seats that could flip blue this year - WVTF - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Democrats call for probes of deadly Kerr County flooding to discover what went wrong - Dallas News - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Democrats trying to field candidate slate to win first statewide race in 32 years - Texarkana Gazette - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- These Democrats have forgotten who they represent, GOP lawmaker says - Fox News - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Opinion | Democrats in Race to Separate Themselves from Biden - WSJ - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Democrats Are Calling For Probe Into National Weather Service After Deadly Floods In Texas - HuffPost - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Will Trump's megabill help Democrats win the House? - NPR - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- A congressman on how Democrats can regain the initiative on the economy - The Economist - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Democrats see Trumps big bill as key to their comeback. It may not be so easy - AP News - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Democrats going after Trumps megabill tell their own stories of needing Medicaid and other aid programs - CNN - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Mass. Democrats say cuts from Trump's bill will be 'devastating,' brace for impact - WBUR - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Democrats respond to Trump signing megabill - CNN - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Pols & Politics: Whats next for Beacon Hill Democrats after finishing early-term priorities - Boston Herald - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Trump on Democrats who voted against GOP megabill: I hate them - The Hill - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Trumps Budget Bill Would Explode Funding for ICE. Top Democrats Arent Talking About It. - The Intercept - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Opinion | For Democrats, Mamdani Is a Wake-Up Calland a Bad Example - WSJ - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Democrats and Republicans were out on the Virginia campaign trail. Heres what they had to say. - The Virginian-Pilot - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Exclusive | Just half of Democrats consider themselves patriots, compared to 91% of Republicans, poll reveals - New York Post - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- First Thing: Corrupt kleptocracy Democrats furious over passage of Trump bill - The Guardian - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- In Trumps Bill, Democrats See a Path to Win Back Voters - The New York Times - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Trump Kicks Off Celebration of America by Declaring His Hatred for Democrats - The Daily Beast - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Democrats frustrated over lack of a heads-up from Hakeem Jeffries on delaying Trumps spending bill - Fox News - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- A dark day for our country: Democrats furious over Trump bills passage - The Guardian - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Democrats See Trumps Big Bill as Key to Their Comeback. It May Not Be So Easy - U.S. News & World Report - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Democrats to focus on unpopular GOP cuts in bid to take back the House - The Washington Post - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Opinion | Zohran Mamdani Won by Listening. Democrats Should Try It. - The New York Times - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- House Democrats filibuster but only delay the final passage of Trumps big bill - Washington Times - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Abundance at the fore of Democrats new ideas sweepstakes - The Washington Post - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Democrats Denied This City Had a Gang Problem. The Truth Is Complicated. - The New York Times - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Democrats Should Become the Pro-Porn Party - The Nation - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- 175+ Democrats supporting NAACP suit against dismantling Department of Education - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Pro-Israel Jewish Democrats say Mamdanis stances are cause for concern and action - The Times of Israel - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Psaki: Republicans will regret passing Trump's bill as Democrats look to reprise 2018's House flip - MSNBC News - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Democrats Bet Jobs in Red States Would Save Clean Power Projects. They Lost. - The New York Times - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Can the abundance movement save the Democrats? - The Washington Post - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- FBI headquarters will remain in downtown DC, roiling Washington-area Democrats - Politico - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- The Big Beautiful Bill Is Massively Unpopular and Democrats Plan to Keep It That Way - Time Magazine - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Stephen A. Smith: Democrats will have no chance if they become like Mamdani - The Hill - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Senate Judiciary Democrats launch probe into whether Trump officials violated court orders - The Hill - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Frustration grows over NY Democrats' 'lack of political courage' on immigration - Gothamist - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Schumer and other Senate Democrats condemn the phrase globalize the intifada - The Jerusalem Post - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Analysis | Why Democrats are excited about Texas for real this time - The Washington Post - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Arizona Democrats will bypass struggling state party in midterms, with key races on ballot - AP News - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Virginia Democrats hold town hall after Senate passage of 'Big, Beautiful Bill' - 13newsnow.com - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Democrats will force out-loud reading of 940-page megabill - Politico - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]