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AUSTIN It was never going to be easy for Wendy Davis and the Democrats to win in Texas this year or particularly hard for Greg Abbott and the GOP to beat them.

Supporters hoped Davis would usher in a Democratic renaissance in Texas. But Republicans see history, fate and a streak of cowboy conservatism as keys to sustaining two decades of GOP dominance.

Texas Democrats publicly insist they can pull off a surprising victory Tuesday. But most party strategists and leaders quietly acknowledge that after decades of decline, the best they can realistically hope for is to make progress toward being competitive in 2018, or even 2022.

So barring a miracle, what would count as a win that Democrats could build on?

Victory for Democrats would be if any of their statewide candidates lose by single digits. That would be a sign of significant progress, said Matthew Wilson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University. I dont think thats going to happen.

Heres another measure much discussed in Democratic and Republican political circles: 42 percent.

Thats the share of the vote that Democrat Bill White got in the last governors race, in 2010, when he lost to Rick Perry by 12 points.

If Davis and the much-ballyhooed voter mobilization efforts of Battleground Texas push her percentage to, say, 45 or 46 percent of the vote, it will be evidence that reliably red-state Texas might become competitive.

Weve built the foundation, said Jeremy Bird, a former Obama campaign adviser who helped create Battleground Texas.

But a double-digit Davis loss would damage the credibility of Battleground Texas, especially among its big-dollar donors, and set back Democratic organizational hopes in Texas.

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Election results will measure Democrats' progress vs. GOP in Texas