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Democratic strength is not surprising, since all of the ingredients for a strong Democratic performance are in place. The presidents party just about always loses seats in the midterm elections, and it generally gets clobbered when the presidents approval rating is beneath 50 percent, much less beneath 40.

But alone, a strong national political environment doesnt guarantee Democratic control of the House.

The Democrats just dont have many top-tier opportunities to win Republican-held seats. This year, just 11 Republicans represent seats with a Democratic tilt in recent presidential elections. Back in 2010, the Republicans had 73 such opportunities.

They dont need to win most of those districts, but they need to win enough.

Lean Rep. (6085% Rep.)

Likely Rep. (8595% Rep.)

Lean Rep. (6085% Rep.)

Likely Rep. (8595% Rep.)

The election in 2006 is a particularly relevant example, because Democrats had a somewhat similar, if better, set of opportunities. Those chances yielded 31 seats, just a few more than the 24 seats they need in 2018. But Democrats also had some good luck in 2006 that will be hard to duplicate: There were a half dozen safely Republican districts where the incumbent succumbed to scandal or indictment, including Tom DeLay, a House majority leader.

The Republicans have a real shot to retain control of the House in a political climate that would doom them under typical circumstances. There are a lot of reasons for this structural G.O.P. advantage, like partisan gerrymandering, the inefficient distribution of Democrats in heavily Democratic cities, and the benefit of incumbency.

To retake the House, Democrats will ultimately need to carry seats with a clear Republican tradition. This years special elections, including Jon Ossoffs loss to Karen Handel in Georgia, are a reminder that it will indeed be difficult for Democrats to win in Republican-leaning districts, just as it was for the Democrats in 2006 or for Republicans on Democratic-leaning turf in 2010.

The good news for Democrats is that they dont need to win all of these Republican-leaning districts or even most of them. Democrats might only need to win, say, 17 of the 60 seats where Republicans are favored, but where Democrats have a realistic chance.

In that sense, these Democratic losses are entirely consistent with the possibility of a House takeover. If Democrats keep running ahead of expectations across those plausibly competitive Republican-held seats, many seats will ultimately fall their way. But they will certainly lose more than they win. The question is whether they win enough, and no special election offers the answer to that.

An earlier version of this article misstated the position of Tom DeLay in the 2006 election cycle. He was a House majority leader, not House Speaker.

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Dueling Realities for Democrats: Big Gains but Large Obstacles in ... - New York Times