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Republicans are ready to surf the red wave to control of Congress and state legislatures this November in what is looking like a particularly nasty midterm election cycle for Democrats.

"As the historic 2022 Red Wave builds and more Democrats run for the hills, I will continue to support strong, American First candidates as we work to Fire Nancy Pelosi once and for all and SAVE AMERICA!" Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, the chairwoman of the House Republican Conference, said in a statement announcing a $10 million fundraising haul at the beginning of the year.

"With Biden underwater, a red wave is coming," Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel predicted in an op-ed. "As we look ahead to the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats have every reason to worry."

That's what you might expect two leading Republicans to say in their capacity as spokeswomen for the party in an election year. But nonpartisan prognosticators at National Journal forecast a "red wave" for Senate Democrats that could wash away a favorable map and the possibility of GOP primaries producing extreme challengers, submerging their narrow majority.

Republicans have history on their side this year. Between 1862 and 2014, the party holding the White House has managed to avoid losing House seats in the midterm elections just four times, according to an analysis by the Brookings Institution. The party in power has fared better in the Senate but has still lost seats two dozen times during that time period. Since 1938, the president's party has lost House seats in every midterm election but two 1998, when Republicans waged an unpopular impeachment gambit against Democratic President Bill Clinton, and 2002, when the 9/11 terrorist attacks galvanized the nation behind Republican President George W. Bush.

That's it. The rest of this history looks pretty ugly for the party of the president. Democrats lost 72 House seats under Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1938, then 44 in 1942, followed by a loss of 55 in 1946. Democrats shed 48 House seats in the 1966 midterm elections under Lyndon B. Johnson, while Republicans lost 48 in 1974 after Richard Nixon's resignation in the Watergate scandal.

In 1994, the first midterm election of Clinton's presidency, Republicans picked up 54 House seats for their first majority in that chamber in 40 years. Thirty-four incumbents were unseated, all Democrats, including the sitting speaker of the House for the first time since 1863, the chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, and the 42-year incumbent who led the House Judiciary Committee. Democrats also lost control of the Senate with the defeat of two incumbents and a Republican sweep of six open seats.

Bush avoided the midterm curse in 2002 but was unsuccessful four years later. In the 2006 midterm elections, Democrats gained 31 seats, giving Nancy Pelosi the speaker's gavel for the first time. Democrats similarly gained five seats in the Senate. Republicans added 63 House seats in Barack Obama's first midterm election in 2010 and then captured the Senate in his second one in 2014, with a net gain of nine seats. Pelosi's second stint as speaker began after Democrats gained 41 House seats under Donald Trump.

Bush called it a "thumpin'," Obama a "shellacking." Clinton had to assure reporters that the Constitution still made him relevant. Presidents have trouble holding Congress for their party, especially when they're unpopular.

And Biden is unpopular: An ABC News/Washington Post poll found more strongly disapproved of his performance (44%) than approved to any degree (37%). His overall disapproval rating stood at 55%.

Predictably, Republicans led the generic congressional ballot by 49% to 42%. When asked about the GOP acting as a check against Biden, this rose to 50% to 40%, a 10-point Republican advantage.

Democrats have two remaining hopes. The first is that Republicans fail to capitalize on a highly favorable environment because their divisions and primary results favor less electable candidates. This kept the GOP from controlling the Senate until midway through Obama's second term. The other is that the election is still months away, and the pandemic, inflation, and Russia-Ukraine could all look better by November.

But with each new crisis, the public perception of Biden as a competent leader fades. The longer those attitudes persist, the more difficult they are to change.

Moreover, Republicans don't really need a red wave. The Senate is split 50-50. The Democratic edge in the House is five seats. A trickle could cost them their majorities. No wonder Republicans think the water's just fine.

Original Location: Democrats wave their majorities goodbye

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