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A congressional redistricting case could offer Texas Democrats a glimmer of hope for making gains in the Republican-dominated stateif a new map takes effect shortly before the 2018 midterm elections.

Revisedcongressional boundariescould create opportunities for Democrats looking to win back the House but also challengesif they must quickly find formidable candidatesin newly competitive races. And if acourt redraws the states map, the GOP-ledstate governmentwould lose control of a tool that lawmakers in Texasand across the country have relied on to stay inpower.

As usual, its an interesting time in Texas politics where we dont really know whats going to happen, said Colin Strother, a Democratic consultant in the Lone Star State.

A panel of three federal judges in Texas concluded in March that three congressional districts in the 2011 congressional map violated the Voting Rights Actby diluting opportunities for minority communities to select candidates of their choice.

But the 2011 map is no longer in effect, since the state adopted a new map in 2013 amid ongoing litigation.Thenew map is also discriminatory, the plaintiffs allege, since some of the original boundaries from 2011 are still in place. The state government saysthe 2013 map is legal, since it was approved by the courts.

Lawyers in the case facea Tuesday deadline to explainhow a recent Supreme Court ruling would affect their arguments. The high court ruled in May that North Carolina state lawmakers illegally used race to alterthe lines of two congressional districts. Lawyers are also preparing for a July hearing on the current congressionalmap.

With the Texas case moving forward, the boundaries of the congressional districts remain in question with the 2018 elections less than18 months away. The Lone StarStates primary filing deadline is in sixmonths.

So, incumbent lawmakersand potential challengers are watching to see where the districts boundaries will fall, and weighing how that could affect the outcomes in next years midterms.

One of the districts atthe centerof the Texas caseis the23rd District, the largest in the state, spanningmuch of the states border with Mexico. Itshome to one of seven races currently rated Toss-upbyInside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.

The seat, represented by GOP Rep. Will Hurd, is a top Democratic target in 2018. Hurd was first elected in 2014 by a 2-point margin. He narrowly won re-election last yearby 1 point while Hillary Clinton was carrying the district by 3 points, according to calculations byDaily Kos Elections.

The federal judgesinvalidated the 2011 lines forthis district,writing in their ruling that itsconfiguration denied Latino voters equal opportunity and had the intent and effect of diluting Latino voter opportunity.

Michael Li, senior counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice, expects the district tobe redrawn to include more Latino voters.

That probably is a Latino-controlled seat, which would be a Democratic-controlled seat, Li said.

National Democrats have heardfrom candidates interested in Hurds seat. And while they expect strong challengers to emerge, none haveso far.

Everyones kind of keeping their powder dry until it makes a little more sense to announce, said Strother, the Democratic consultant.

The court also ruled two other districts were unlawful: the 35th District, which stretches from San Antonio to Austin, and is represented by Democrat Lloyd Doggett;and the 27th District along Texas central Gulf Coast, represented by Republican Blake Farenthold.

Li speculated that, if the court rules the current map is also invalid, a new congressional map could lead to two or three more Democratic seats. Republicans currently outnumber Democrats, 25 to 11, in the Texas delegation.

But one GOP consultant focused on Texas did not believe a new map would result in a significant shift against theRepublicans.

Theres just not enough Democrats to roll around the state to really have massive amounts of change, the consultant said. You may lose one seat.

The consultant also said the uncertainty would not have an effect on congressional campaigns for incumbents, since they are accustomedto the constantlegal battles over the congressional lines.

But Strother said Democrats had to be prepared just in case.

The nightmare scenario for Democrats is we dont have people preparing for the emergency that this district or that district suddenly gets great for Democrats and its too late, hesaid.

Strother said he didnt see many Democrats preparing for races just yet, but pointed to Joe Kopser in the 21st District as someone jumping in earlyin arace ratedSolid Republicanby Inside Elections.

Kopser, an Army veteran and technology businessman, recently announced that he would challenge GOP Rep. Lamar Smith in the central Texas district. It is possible a new congressional map could have a ripple effect and alterthe lines of Smiths district.

While the district is not onthe Democratic Congressional Campaign Committees list of 2018 targets, the committee is waiting to see how the redistricting case pans out.

As campaigns watch the courtroom, the legal battle in this six-year case moves forward, with animpending Tuesdaydeadline for the lawyers todescribe how the North Carolina case affects their arguments.

Nina Perales, a lawyer for the plaintiffs, said it is not unusual for the judges to make that request following a high courtruling.

I dont think that you can read any special significance into the fact that the court has asked us to talk about the Supreme Court, said Perales, who is with the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund.

Perales said it was not clear how the ruling would affect the Texas case. In North Carolina, the case centered on packing claims, where African-American voters were packed into a few congressional districts to dilute their influence in other districts.

Shenoted that the claims in the Lone Star Statemainly centered on allegations that the districts weredrawn on the basis of race. The Texas case includes cracking claims, meaning minority communities were fractured among districts so there were not enough minority voters to elect a candidate of their choice.

But Li, ofthe Brennan Center, said the North Carolina ruling could affectthe Texas case since the Supreme Court advocated a holistic approach to examining racial gerrymandering. That means expanding evidence beyond empirical data and looking at the broader environment surrounding the states redistricting process.

Li also said the high courtruling could cut into the defenses argument that the congressional boundaries are only based on partisanship,since the court noted that using race for political gain is not permissible.

The state government wrotein a May court filing thatit does not plan to hold a special session to preemptively redraw the map, since it believes the current map is legal. If the state legislature declines to draw the map itself, the court could develop new lines.

That possibility is causing some consternation among Texas Republicans. The Texas Tribune reported that some GOP members of the congressional delegation are urging the governor to call a special session, overconcerns that a court-drawn map would be less beneficial for Republicans.

Li noted that the parties involved have indicated that with the 2018 elections looming, questions on the current maps need to be resolved by early fall.

But, even if the current map is addressed, legal challenges could continue.

Ive been going through redistricting, it seems like all of my political life, said Democratic Rep.Eddie Bernice Johnsonof the Dallas-based 30th District. It never seems to end.

One outstanding question is whether Texas should be placed back under the Voting Rights Acts preclearance procedure. In 2013, the Supreme Court struck down the VRA provision that required certain states with a history of discrimination to havetheir voting laws preapproved before takingeffect.

Without preclearance the burden is on the plaintiffs to rush into court and prove their case in order to get a map blocked, Li said. With preclearance, the burden is on the state to prove that a map is not discriminatory.

So the plaintiffs have asked that the court place Texas back under the VRAs preclearance procedure, which Perales said could pre-empt legal challenges in the future. The court has yet to rule on that question.

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Democrats See New Opportunities in Texas Redistricting Case - Roll Call