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The Senate map is the Democrats friend in the 2016 cycle. They are defending only 10 seats, while Republicans have two dozen to hold. But wait, it gets better. Seven of those 24 Republican seats are in states that President Obama won not once but twice: Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

To win the majority, Democrats need to win five of those seven seats in November 2016. (If Hillary Clinton, or another Democrat, wins the White House in 2016, then Senate Democrats need to win only four of those seven.) Thats the exact path Republicans took to the Senate majority in 2014 when, needing a six-seat gain, they won all six of the Democratic-held seats Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia that Mitt Romney carried in 2012. (Republicans also won two states Iowa and Colorado that Obama carried twice, and one North Carolina that Obama won in 2008 and Romney won in 2012.)

Of course, 2014 was a historically good year for Senate Republicans. The last time the party won more than nine seats in a midterm election was 1994, when it scored 10. Prior to 1994, you have to go back to 1946, when Republicans netted 12 seats.

And while the map looks great for Democrats on paper, several of those seven races look less rosy in reality. Iowa is a tough Democratic pickup unless Sen. Charles E. Grassley(R) decides to retire, which he insists he isnt going to do. Ohio Sen. Rob Portman(R) is a gifted politician and fundraiser, while the Democratic bench in the state is decidedly thin. The Democratic fields in New Hampshire, Florida and Illinois are still quite muddled. And neither Sens. Patrick J. Toomey (R-Pa.) nor Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) are political dead men walking.

There are also two genuinely vulnerable Democrats Sens. Harry M. Reid (Nev.) and Michael F. Bennet (Colo.) on the ballot in 2016.

Still, as the 2014 election revealed, the map and the math are huge factors in the battle for the Senate. Both are on Democrats side this time around.

Below are the 10 most competitive Senate contests on the ballot in 2016. The No.1-ranked race is the most likely to switch parties in 2016.

10. Kentucky (Republican-controlled). Sen. Rand Paul (R) is staffing, as expected, for a presidential run next year. Paul still has to figure out how hes going to run for president and hold his Senate seat if that former race doesnt work out. His opponent in that effort could be none other than 2014 Senate nominee Alison Lundergan Grimes, given her role as Kentuckys chief elections officer.

9. Ohio (R). This may be the swing state at the presidential level. But Portman isnt seen as particularly vulnerable in 2016. A lot of that is because he banked $5.8 million by the end of 2014. Another big reason is that Democrats have a slim bench in Ohio. Among the names mentioned are Cincinnati Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld, former governor Ted Strickland, former congresswoman Betty Sutton and Rep. Tim Ryan.

8. Florida (R). Whither Marco Rubio? The Florida senator could be the odd man out in the presidential race, with fellow Floridian Jeb Bush and other establishment-friendly candidates such as Mitt Romney and Chris Christie in the mix. Consider this: Rubio is just 43 years old, and hes got his 2016 reelection campaign to worry about. Perhaps its better to focus on staying in the Senate and waiting for the next opportunity.

Originally posted here:
Democrats see map and math working to their advantage in 2016 Senate races