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Marylands Democratic primary is the most expensive in the country, thanks almost entirely to Trone; hes sunk $61.8 million into this race, after spending tens of millions of dollars on four House campaigns, blanketing airwaves and YouTube with his Horatio Alger story. Alsobrooks, who went on the air in February, has spent a tenth as much.

At a Tuesday night rally at Silver Springs AFI movie theater, where California Rep. Adam Schiff praised Trones understanding of our economy and ability to defend our democracy, Trones ads played on the big screen while a few dozen voters took their seats so many that over 15 minutes of I approved this message-ing, no ad was played twice.

Yet the race remains close. Its final weeks have become an increasingly personal, tense contest between candidates battling over intertwined issues around race and who is best positioned to defend what until recently had been considered a safe seat.

Republicans havent won here since 1980, and the Donald Trump-led GOP is practically designed to lose in Maryland: Montgomery and Prince Georges counties, D.C. suburbs that cast nearly a million votes in 2020, gave less than 150,000 of them to Trump.

But the surprise decision by popular former Gov. Larry Hogan, a moderate anti-Trump Republican, has turned the general into a tossup. For the Democrats, thats exponentially increased the stakes of their primary.

Hogans entrance ended our complacency about the fall election, said Rep. Jamie Raskin, who has endorsed Alsobrooks, and beat Trone in 2016 to win his safe Montgomery County seat. (Trone got to Congress by spending $18 million in the neighboring, competitive 8th District.)

Since Hogans entrance in February, Trone has made his personal fortune a centerpiece of his pitch: If he wins the nomination, Democrats wont have to spend cash in Maryland that theyd earmarked for Ohio, Montana, or other competitive states.

It will give them a lot more flexibility to spend money elsewhere, Trone told Semafor on Tuesday. Im sure that will appeal to Leader Schumer.

The deep-pockets argument, along with Trones years of party donations and go-everywhere campaigning, helped him win over many Democrats who repeat his argument: He has more relevant experience than Alsobrooks, and he can win. But most of the states congressional delegation has stuck with Alsobrooks, confident that Hogans support will fade by November and wary of once again telling Black voters who make up a third of the states electorate that its not their turn yet.

Maryland Democrats previously rejected Black candidates when Senate seats opened up 2006 and 2016 agonizing about it the whole time, then winning the general anyway. Neither of those races divided elected Democrats like this; Ben Cardin and Chris Van Hollen, the winners in those years, had most of the establishment behind them. But Gov. Wes Moore, the first Black Marylander to hold that office, endorsed Alsobrooks six months ago; Adrienne Jones, the first Black female state House Speaker, beat him to it.

Moore told Semafor that the electability concerns about Alsobrooks, who has out-raised Hogan, were misplaced: Regardless of what happens in a primary, every single one of us are going to be all in to make sure that our nominee wins the race.

Alsobrooks goes further, suggesting she may be better positioned to unite the partys diverse wings come the general.

Whats going to be needed is a coalition of people from all backgrounds who will come together to defeat Larry Hogan, Alsobrooks told Semafor after stopping to talk to voters at an early voting site in Bowie. Im the person who has the experience of doing that. The evidence that Trones wealth wasnt insurance against a Hogan win, she said, was that Trone had outspent her all year, and shed closed the gap.

Trone, for his part, has consistently highlighted support from non-white and female Democrats in his omnipresent TV spots; Black men whod benefited from his investments in criminal justice reform, women of all races who were helped by his support for family planning. He could even get to the county executives left on some issues. Trone had always opposed the death penalty; Alsobrooks would only say, passively, that Maryland had banned it.

The candidates didnt disagree on much else, so Alsobrookss supporters homed in on how Trone and his surrogates talked. In March, after Prince Georges County Council Member Ed Burroughs said in one Trone ad that the Senate was not a job for people with training wheels, more than 600 Black women co-signed a letter that denounced its tones of misogyny and racism.

That comment was struck from the ad, but the attention hurt Trone. In Silver Spring, pressed on the training wheels quote, Trone noted that he didnt say it in the ad; when a reporter pointed out that Trone had used the same phrase, the candidate said that we stand by the fact that Burroughs made the comment, and, frankly, she doesnt have the experience at the federal level. What mattered, he explained, was what he was going to do with the Senate seat.

I have supported wonderful women and diverse candidates all over this country, and will continue to do so, Trone said. But what the voters keep saying, time and time again, is look at what I can do for you.

But as early voting wrapped up, Trones non-white surrogates kept saying what hed been told not to say: Alsobrooks wasnt ready for the job, or sensitive enough to other non-white Democrats. We need someone who can be effective from day one, Prince Georges County States Attorney Aisha Braveboy said on Thursday, when pro-Trone Democrats gathered at a union hall to support him to argue that voters needed to look past the candidates race.

I wouldnt vote for Candace Owens, no matter what she was running for, said Krystal Oriadha, another county council member whod rejected Alsobrooks. The idea that we just have to vote for someone because of their gender, because of their color, negating any other issues, is insulting to us as a community. (Owens is a high-profile Black conservative pundit.)

On the stump, Alsobrooks didnt lead with her race or gender and didnt really need to. She would certainly make history, but more importantly, she will make a difference, Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock told reporters after a meeting with the candidate and Black pastors, redirecting a question about race to talk about the investments made by the Democratic Senate.

My basic thought is positive politics, high road politics is what wins in Maryland, Raskin said, asked about the challenges of facing the self-funding Trone. Ive told that to all the candidates. I think that that is the way to go.

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Democrats never expected this Senate primary to have such high stakes - Semafor