Democrats Navigate Around Obamas Unpopularity
Democrats are girding for a tough slog in the midterm congressional elections by cranking up their fundraising and voter turnout programs, but there is only somuch they can do about one of the biggest political problems their candidates have to cope with: President Barack Obamas sagging approval ratings.
A presidents popularity among voters can have a powerful effect on midterm elections, and this year, Democrats have the misfortune of seeing most of their mostcompetitive House and Senate battles being fought in regions where Mr. Obama is particularly unpopular.
A state-by-state Gallup analysis of Mr. Obamas job approval rating for 2013 found that in five of the most competitive statesAlaska, Arkansas, Kentucky, West Virginiaand Montanathe share of people approving of Mr. Obamas job performance was below 40%. Republicans need to pick up six seats to win the Senate majority.
Rep. Steve Israel (D.,N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee,acknowledged in an interview with the Wall Street Journal Thursdaythat the presidents approval levels were lacking but that our job is to build an infrastructure that can minimize the difficult climate and maximize a more favorableclimate.
The best thing the partysHouse and Senate campaign strategists figure they can do is raise a boatload of money and rev up their political organization in the battleground districts and states. This year, both House and Senate campaign committees have invested far more money andmoved much earlier than in past yearsto set up programs to identify and mobilize supporters there.
They are hoping to head offa historic political problem for the Democratic Party: In off-year elections, there is often a big dropoff in turnout by young people, members of minority groups and other key parts of the Democratic base. Mr. Obama, speaking Thursday night at a Democraticfundraiser in Florida, alluded to that problem.
During presidential elections, young people vote, women are more likely to vote, blacks, Hispanics more likely to vote, Mr. Obama said. But in midterms we getclobbered either because we dont think its important or weve become so discouraged about whats happening in Washington that we think its not worth our while.
Despite his unpopularity in key states, Mr. Obama has been able to lend a big hand to his party with his vast fundraising prowess through such events.
But in other ways, most Democrats in tough races are coping by finding avenuesin campaign ads, votes in Congress and other tacticsto keep their distancefrom Mr. Obama and the health-care law. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D., La.) bluntly touted her efforts to fix the health-care law in her first re-election ad. Whenthe House voted recently on legislation to postpone a key element of the bill the mandate that most individuals hold health insurance27 Democrats voted for the bill. Thats five more Democrats than voted for an identical bill when it came to a votein July 2013, and included several facing competitive elections.
Rep. Rick Nolan (D.,Minn.), a freshman who faces a potentially tough re-election fight,said he switched from opposing the delay to supporting it because of the major problems in the rollout of the law starting in October. Having been criticized in ads by the conservative Americans for Prosperity for supporting the health-care law, now he is being criticized by another conservative group, the Congressional Leadership Fund,for what it called an election year conversion.
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Democrats Navigate Around Obamas Unpopularity
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