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TAMPA If they hope to unseat Florida Gov. Rick Scott in November and regain a foothold in state government, Florida Democrats will have to overcome a handicap that has plagued them for years voter drop-off in nonpresidential elections.

Florida traditionally sees declines in voter turnout of up to 20 percentage points in nonpresidential years compared to presidential years.

The decline favors Republicans, experts say, because its greatest among the most reliably Democratic voting groups minorities, young voters and unmarried women. Those individuals are less likely to go to the polls when there isnt a high-profile presidential race.

The effects were clearly visible in the March special election to replace the late U.S. Rep. C.W. Bill Young in Pinellas County, an election with even less voter-drawing power than a normal off-year election.

In that March 11 vote, Democrat Alex Sink narrowly lost to Republican David Jolly, even though the Pinellas County congressional district has been trending Democratic in recent years. The district voted for President Barack Obama in both the last two presidential election years.

Its a topic of national concern amongst Democrats, Sink said. Its an historical pattern that weve dealt with in many election cycles how can we make our core voters as passionate and motivated as it seems the core Republicans are?

Sink said Scotts unpopularity among Democrats may provide some of the motivation Democrats will need to spur turnout in November.

Sometimes you need to have a face on the enemy, she said. I think we wont have as much trouble motivating our voters to go to the polls in November.

But a new analysis of voting patterns by a liberal research group that studies voting, Washington, D.C.-based Voter Participation Center, includes a sobering estimate for Florida Democrats.

In 2014, blacks, Hispanics, unmarried women and voters under 30 will send 1.5 million fewer voters to Florida polls than in 2012, said the study, done for the organization by the Democratic-oriented polling and research firm Lake Research Partners.

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Democrats must motivate voters in off-year