Democrats Last Stand? Party foothold in Deep South at stake in Landrieu run-off

Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu faces the run-off of her political life next month to keep her seat after nearly 20 years in office. But more than just a hard-driving Republican opponent, she faces the reality that Democrats -- particularly white Democrats -- are a vanishing breed in the Deep South, and she might be one of the last.

It looks like we are entering a new era, said Ed Chervenak, professor of American politics at the University of New Orleans, where she is the last of the Southern Democrats.

Landrieu got barely 42 percent of the vote Tuesday, followed by Republican Bill Cassidy, with nearly 40 percent, and Republican Rob Maness, who came in third with 14 percent. According to state rules, the two top vote-getters will compete in a run-off scheduled for Dec. 6.

On election night, faced with the prospect of another 30 days of brutal campaigning, the 58-year-old Landrieu took a positive tone that has since become a mantra for her supporters: that the run-off is about Louisiana and not about the unpopular president in Washington.

And now we have the race that we have wanted, for months," Landrieu said during a speech in New Orleans. "Cassidy can no longer just spout President Obama's name at debates and think that's enough." She promptly called for six debates in the next month. So far, Cassidy has agreed to only one.

But election observers say Landrieu faces difficult odds on two key fronts: the sheer numbers are against her, and the Democratic Party appears to be losing interest now that the majority in the Senate has been lost. According to media reports Thursday, Democrats' Senate campaign arm is pulling its planned advertising spots for Landrieu in the state through Dec. 6, indicating a lack of confidence. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee responded by saying they support Landrieu 100 percent.

A recent NBC/Marist poll showed that in a head-to-head matchup, Cassidy would get 50 percent of the vote while Landrieu would draw just 45 to 46 percent.

She is going to have a hard time explaining to people why she voted with Obama over 90 percent of the time, and convincing enough voters Republicans and Independents that they should send her back there (to Washington), said Henry Barbour, RNC committee member and GOP strategist in Mississippi.

According to exit polling and analysis after Tuesdays election, Landrieus numbers problem goes way deeper than one race.

She is basically confronting the long-term loss of Democratic identifiers throughout the state, and the entire Deep South, said Chervenak. What we have seen is a realignment in a region that was once dominated by the Democratic Party, which is now solidly Republican. He said in 1996, two-thirds of Louisiana was Democratic, today that number is 47 percent.

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Democrats Last Stand? Party foothold in Deep South at stake in Landrieu run-off

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