Democrats gripped by special election performance anxiety – Politico
Money is flooding into Democrat Jon Ossoffs campaign. The national party has started running focus groups on his behalf. Thousands of volunteers have flocked to his team to help him win his April special election for a vacant Atlanta-area congressional seat.
The race for Georgias 6th District has suddenly become a focal point, viewed as a chance to send Donald Trump a message by channeling the partys grass-roots rage, energy and frustration into a single contest. But party leaders are growing increasingly frustrated by the nationalization of this race and another in Montana and worried about unrealistic expectations in Republican-friendly seats where the Democrats are at a decided disadvantage.
Story Continued Below
Just a few high-profile losses in races framed as referendums on the Trump agenda, Democrats fear, and the currently heightened level of engagement and hope might fall off the cliff.
I would caution heavily against resting the entire future of a party on the outcome of a special election, warned Rebecca DeHart, the Georgia Democratic Partys executive director.
You can make two mistakes with special elections. One is to over-read and assume that because you won or lost, that is a predictor of the midterms. The flip side is that you can under-read, said strategist Jesse Ferguson, a former top official at the House Democrats campaign wing.
The polarizing nature of the presidential election and the early months of the Trump administration are already amplifying the noise surrounding not just the Georgia special election but a handful of congressional special elections slated in coming months. The national press, and activists and officials in both parties, are looking for clues to understand Trumps newly refashioned political landscape in places like Montana, where theres a contest to replace Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke; in South Carolina, where Budget Director Mick Mulvaneys former seat is vacant; in Kansas, where CIA Director Mike Pompeos seat is open; and in California, where theres a crowded contest to succeed Xavier Becerra, now the states attorney general.
Nowhere is grass-roots Democratic optimism more acute than in Georgia, where Ossoff, a 30-year-old documentary filmmaker, is vying to capture the suburban Atlanta seat left vacant by Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price. The state is trending toward battleground status, and Trump won the district in question by a single percentage point.
Ossoff has raised millions of dollars online from angry activists, and he spent Thursday night at a fundraiser hosted for him by party bigwigs like Reps. Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, James Clyburn and John Lewis at Democratic National Committee headquarters.
A Pelosi-signed fundraising email for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee claimed on Thursday that the energy surrounding the race has Republicans terrified.
But local and national Democrats alike see risk in raising expectations too high. Trump may have underperformed there in November, but Price typically won the seat by landslide margins. At best, Ossoff is a long shot and local party officials fear even a narrow Ossoff loss could create the impression that Georgia is still too red to warrant attention from the national party.
Special elections are indicators, not prognosticators. They are testing grounds, but not conclusive proof-points, [so] it can be a mistake to read into a special election as giving the party a perfect road map for where to invest in the future. But at the same time, ignoring the consequences of these testing grounds comes at your peril," said Ferguson.
The Georgia race will feature an April primary with candidates of all parties, and assuming none reaches 50 percent, there will be a June runoff thats widely expected to pit Ossoff against a Republican who will likely be the favorite.
If Jon Ossoff is the future of the Democratic Party, the future is very bright for Republicans. Jon Ossoff has a better chance of being cast as Han Solo in the next 'Star Wars' movie than becoming a member of Congress, said Corry Bliss, executive director of the American Action Network and Congressional Leadership Fund, groups tied to GOP House leadership which has run anti-Ossoff ads. He was alluding to clips that have circulated of Ossoff dressed as that character in college.
Not all of the special elections are viewed as Trump-era barometers. The South Carolina and Kansas seats are expected to remain in GOP hands, while the Los Angeles-area seat is almost certain to remain in Democratic control. But along with the Georgia contest, the May special election for Montanas at-large House seat is being watched closely, and some Democrats see it as a promising if slightly more difficult pick-up opportunity.
In its endorsement of Rob Quist, the Democratic nominee, the popular liberal website Daily Kos described the race as "the perfect test, then, of a populist outsider versus an out-of-touch one-percenter.
But the conventional wisdom in Montana is that in order to win statewide, a Democrat needs exceedingly high name recognition. That doesnt describe Quist, a musician who is running against Greg Gianforte, a businessman who waged an unsuccessful challenge against Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock in 2016.
There are some people on the national level who are saying this is the referendum of whatll happen with Trump, because our state went for Trump. But the reality is its local. Our state is unique: We elected Steve Bullock and Trump by a wide margin, said Jim Larson, chairman of the state Democratic Party.
Get the latest news and scoops first, every morning in your inbox.
By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Bullock himself warned against attempts to nationalize the race.
We havent really seen what this election is going to look like, he said. Its hard to say its going to be one thing or another until it starts to be a little more defined.
Montana GOP chairman Jeff Essmann, a local legislator and former state Senate president, said hes skeptical about Democratic chances in a state where Trump won easily.
If they want a laboratory for that, they need to do it in a state where Trump didnt win by 20 percent, like Montana, said Essmann. Hes very popular, his policies are, and I think this race is going to simply come down to a race between one experienced candidate who will support the Trump agenda and one who will oppose it."
Even local Democrats are hesitant to use their race as a potential piece of evidence regarding Trumps standing among voters.
For Democrats and Republicans to [look at the results and] say, Oh, America hates Trump, or America loves Trump? Well, both of that is true, said Larson. Can there be lessons learned on elections that we win? Well, what worked in Delaware isnt necessarily going to work in Montana."
Read the rest here:
Democrats gripped by special election performance anxiety - Politico
- Democrats defiance on shutdown shows a new, tougher approach to Trump - The Washington Post - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Mamdani Is More Foe Than Friend in the Suburbs, Even Among Democrats - The New York Times - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Speaker Johnson to Democrats on Day Three of the Shutdown: Do Your Job, Reopen the Government, Then We Can Get Back to Work - Congressman Mike Johnson... - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Democrats Government Shutdown Will Not Slow ICE Down from Arresting the Worst of the Worst Including Pedophiles, Murderers and Human Traffickers -... - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- House Oversight Democrats call for investigation into Trump administrations shutdown messages - PBS - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Chairman Cole on Fox Business: Democrats Inflicted a Shutdown on America - House Committee on Appropriations (.gov) - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Does agency messaging blaming Democrats for government shutdown violate the Hatch Act? - Government Executive - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- How Democrats think they can win the shutdown - MSNBC News - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Democrats are doing more to resist Trump than their voters think - vox.com - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Don't believe the Democrats on health care fight, says Dan Crenshaw - Houston Chronicle - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Out-of-office messages blaming Democrats for shutdown sent on behalf of some federal workers without their consent - CNN - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- The blame game is on at federal agencies, where political messages fault Democrats for the shutdown - AP News - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Poll finds more Americans blame Trump, GOP for shutdown than Democrats - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Kennedy on Democrats government shutdown: I dont think Sen. Schumer is the person in charge - U.S. Senate (.gov) - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Government Workers Say Their Out-of-Office Replies Were Forcibly Changed to Blame Democrats for Shutdown - WIRED - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Democrats Accuse Administration of Cutting Spending at NASA and NOAA - AIP.ORG - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Trump Uses Shutdown to Maximize Pain for Democrats and Move Forward With Layoffs - The New York Times - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- The other reason Democrats are taking Trump to the mat in a shutdown battle - Politico - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Democrats voted for a shutdown. Now they have to find a way out - AP News - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Government Shutdown Live Updates: Trump and Republicans' Deadlock With Democrats Drags On - The New York Times - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Democrats got their shutdown, but they just gave Trump and DOGE a big win | Opinion - USA Today - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Maryland Democrats in Washington urge talks to end government shutdown - Maryland Matters - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- White House threat of new green cuts has Democrats seeing red - Politico - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Democrats take the fight to Trump on government shutdown - Axios - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Government agencies are blaming the shutdown on Democrats. Ethics experts say it could be against the law. - Politico - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- At hearing, Democrats say the redistricting process was flawed from the start - KERA News - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Health care is key for Democrats in shutdown fight. Heres what to know. - The Washington Post - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Are Democrats or Republicans to blame for the looming government shutdown? Heres what our poll found - PBS - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Cruz posts video of Democrats wearing sombreros, cartoon mustaches - The Hill - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Democrats battling with GOP to avoid devastating health care cuts, Rep. Ivey says - PBS - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Leggat-Barr 28: Democrats need to disagree more - The Brown Daily Herald - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Trump Is Using Government Websites to Blame Democrats for the Shutdown - Truthout - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Government shutdown live updates: Trump and Democrats dig in as federal employees face furloughs - NBC News - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Democrats are putting money into solidly red Mississippi. Heres why. - The Washington Post - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Democrats embrace a shutdown fight in a rare moment of unity against Trump - AP News - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- The US in brief: Will Democrats yield to pressure? - The Economist - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Republicans falsely claiming Democrats want to give free health care to those without legal status - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- This is their shutdown: Democrats and Republicans blame each other as government closes down - The Guardian - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Opinion | John Thune: What Democrats are demanding isnt negotiation - The Washington Post - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Top Democrats optimistic Trump could negotiate on health care but not in time to avert a shutdown - CNN - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- The left is right about the Democrats - Slow Boring - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on Democrats approach to negotiations with Trump - PBS - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Speaker Johnson on Fox News: Democrats Will Shut Down the Government Just to Satisfy Their Far-Left Base - Congressman Mike Johnson (.gov) - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Vance says US 'headed to a shutdown' after meeting with Democrats - Reuters - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Barrasso Blasts Democrats Over Schumer Shutdown on Fox News The Sunday Briefing - U.S. Senate (.gov) - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Democrats are turning up the heat on Mike Johnson over a delay in the Epstein files vote - Axios - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Trump and congressional Democrats still at odds over funding bill - CBS News - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- US Senate Democrats weighing short stopgap funding bill as alternative to government shutdown - Reuters - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Vance: US headed for shutdown because the Democrats wont do the right thing - The Hill - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Democrats refuse to cave on health care before meeting with Trump on government shutdown - CNBC - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Vance Says US Headed for Shutdown After Talks With Democrats - Bloomberg.com - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Reporter's Notebook: Democrats' shutdown gamble reveals party divisions, Schumer's weak spot with the left - Fox News - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- "No one is safe": Democrats fear Trump will prosecute them next - Axios - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Full List of Democrats Urging Trump Admin to Protect Gaza Flotilla - Newsweek - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- House Democrats rally at Capitol in last-ditch effort to alter spending bill - The Hill - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Video Rep. Jayapal says Democrats are ready for negotiated agreement - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- In governor race, Kansas Democrats need to build name recognition with voters - The Topeka Capital-Journal - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Democrats line up for a race they havent proved they can win - SaportaReport - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Democrats Should Do the Honorable Thing and Refuse to Fund an Authoritarian Administration - theunpopulist.net - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Video: Opinion | Democrats Are Trying the Costanza Strategy - The New York Times - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- As Democrats hold the line, shutdown blame games begin - The Washington Post - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- JD Vance says US government 'headed to a shutdown,' blames Democrats - Le Monde.fr - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Midland County Democrats will host Oct. 4 chili and ratatouille fundraiser - Midland Daily News - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Opinion | Democrats Are in Crisis. Eat-the-Rich Populism Is the Only Answer. - The New York Times - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Kamala Harriss election memoir shows just how deluded the Democrats still are | Nesrine Malik - The Guardian - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Democrats Plan to Gate-Crash Informal House Pro Forma Session Hours Before Shutdown Begins - NOTUS News of the United States - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Democrats announce plan to fill state House 42 vacancy - Daily Herald - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Opinion | How the Democrats Lost the Working Class - The New York Times - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- They will pay a huge price for this: Shutdown-ready Trump expects Democrats to blink - Politico - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- Democrats race to embrace swearing and angry comebacks but will it work? - The Guardian - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- House Democrats release partial Epstein records referencing Musk, Gates and Prince Andrew - PBS - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- Where Should the Democrats Go from Here? - The New Yorker - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- LEADER JEFFRIES: "THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE HAD ENOUGH. AND DEMOCRATS ARE STANDING ON THEIR SIDE" - Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (.gov) - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- Elon Musk, Peter Thiel and Steve Bannon named in Epstein files released by Democrats - Axios - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- Opinion | Harriss Memoir Is Another Example of the Democrats Problem - The New York Times - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- Democrats need to tell voters they were lied to in the last election: Texas Senate candidate - NBC News - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- James Talarico on immigration, his faith, and how Democrats are getting it wrong - Politico - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- White House mass firing memo signals Trump would accelerate priorities in a shutdown. Democrats arent backing down - CNN - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- Musk, Thiel, Bannon named in partially redacted Epstein documents released by Democrats - CNBC - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- Americans trust Trump, not Democrats, on crime, economy. And for good reason. | Opinion - The Herald-Mail - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]