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Many economists, thinkers, and politicians with a more free market bent have bemoaned the misguided economic policies of the past six years (or longer). We wonder why policy makers continue to follow a path that has given us record debt, weak employment growth, rising economic inequality, and a general feeling of unease among average Americans. Perhaps it is time to start admitting that such policies may be seen as a success by those who are implementing them.

Polls consistently show that voters worried about economic uncertainty are much more likely to vote for Democrats. If you are reliant on the federal government for benefits, you are also more likely to vote for Democrats. Finally, single voters, especially single women are more likely to vote for Democrats. Given those voting patterns, what are the trends in these demographic groups?

Economic uncertainty is high for the sixth year of a recovery. Confidence in the economy has risen from its recession lows, but is not back to the healthy level one would expect at this point in the business cycle. This is likely a combination of the state of the job market, the high levels of debt (both governmental and consumer), and the constant media drumbeat about how bad things are. This is all good for Democrats.

Barack Obama Speaks to College Democrats (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Full time employment is still almost three million jobs below its pre-recession peak, while part-time employment is up by three million. That means fewer people who can rely securely on the market for their economic well-being and more people looking for some help elsewhere. Enter the government. We have 16 million more people on food stamps (SNAP), 1.5 million more on disability, 9 million more on Medicaid before Obamacare increased eligibility in some states (were probably at a 12 million person gain by now), and millions more (government cannot count the exact number, but it might be 7 million) receiving subsidized private-market health insurance thanks to Obamacare.

The best estimates suggest that there are now 160 million people receiving some type of government benefit, representing 52 percent of all Americans. That is a lot of potential voters who have a vested interest in the party who promises more free stuff. Perhaps Mitt Romney was onto something.

Marriage is at an all-time low, particularly among younger Americans. Some evidence suggests that the high levels of debt, low levels of employment and earnings, and general economic instability are discouraging young people from getting married. This may be because they want to be on surer footing before taking that step or they may see potential partners as having little to offer in the way of economic security.

All these trends are moving in the direction that favors Democrats. Why, then, would Democrats want to reduce economic uncertainty, create more jobs, or do anything that encouraged more people to get married? Politicians of all parties usually put their own reelection before what is best for the country. This just happens to be a case where the Democrats had that chance.

The question now is whether the Democrats strategy will work. Their policies have failed in the normal sense, but they have increased the demographic groups that tend to vote for them by the most overwhelming margins. The question is whether they can gain enough votes from increasing those groups to overcome the votes they will likely lose from other demographic groups who are upset about the economic performance they have engineered.

For Republicans to win big in November they must convince those that are not now dependent on big government to vote for them in overwhelming majorities. To do this, they need to not just convince voters that the Democrats economic policies are responsible for the weak recovery but also persuade them that the Republicans have policy ideas that will work better. That means Republicans need to explain what is wrong with current economic policy and be able to discuss what they would like to implement instead.

See the rest here:
Democrats Create And Benefit From Economic Weakness