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Matt Grodsky, opinion contributor Published 6:00 a.m. MT May 3, 2021

Opinion: Momentum may be on Democrats' side, but Arizona Republicans still hold a voter registration edge. And that matters for 2022, especially down ballot.

Arizona delegate Martin Quezada and Cinthia Estela pose with a "Ridin' with Biden" poster during an Arizona Democratic Party drive-in night to watch the acceptance speech of their party's nominee, Joe Biden, in Mesa, Ariz. on August 20, 2020.(Photo: Patrick Breen/The Republic)

Arizona Democrats have a profound opportunity to extend their multicycle winning streak and defy history in the 2022 midterm elections. But one elusive problem looms and it threatens to dash the partys ambitions: A voter registration gap that favors Republicans.

Despite registration gains over the last several years, Democrats are some 140,000 voters behind Republicans. Therefore, Democrats remain reliant on independent and moderate Republican voters.

In 2020, Joe Biden and Mark Kellys broad appeal resulted in wins at the top of the ticket. But voters retreated to their respective parties down ballot, and thats where Republicans voter registration advantage came into play.

Unless 2022 Democratic down ballot races are as appealing as top of the ticket candidates (Im thinking the gubernatorial race), ballot-splitting and voters nescience pose a significant challenge, just as they did in 2020.

While midterms have traditionally resulted inbacklashes towardthe incumbent party, theres beenrare instances when national crisis and sound campaign tactics have helpedthe party in power prevail.

This happened in 1998 amidthe divisive impeachment trial of President Clinton;2002 saw this as well under President Bush in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

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COVID-19 is the current national crisis, and a narrative is building of our emergence from the tragedy thanks to Bidens leadership. Now, coupled locally with the sound tactics Arizona Democrats have already leveraged for the past few election cycles, they can certainly achieve a history thwarting parry.

The down ballot losses in 2020? Remember, Arizona Democrats didnt sustain the kinds of losses as in other states, which speaks to their early organizing and a disciplined messaging strategy.

So, the tools are there for success, but winning the voter registration race is the key for three reasons.

1. It could combat apathy.Incumbent party enthusiasm suffers in midterms. And unlike 2018 or 2020, Donald Trump wont be in the White House or on the ballot. In 2022 he wont be in the same position to motivate turnout, and that could mean Arizona Democrats and their coalition dont turn out in droves.

Republicans, with their higher number of registered voters and their desire for 2020 vengeance, could drive a red wave. Democrats can blunt a Republican offensive if they flip the voter registration deficit.

2. It could help more progressive candidates.Center-left messaging treats the symptoms of a voter registration deficit. Math can cure it. Arizonas Democratic base wants to see progressive wins and leaders that prioritize their most fervent policies. But those arent the candidates who win statewide offices here.

As someone who volunteered for David Garcias gubernatorial campaign in 2018, I know that progressive candidates can win primaries and may hold onto already blue seats, but substantial statewide pickups in a previously red state like ours come from strategically positioned center-left Democrats who can construct coalitions with independents and Republicans.

If thats upsetting to some who would prefer to see a progressive surge, then I encourage you to overtake the voter registration gap.Democrats should always build alliances by drawing in ideologically diverse voters, but by overtaking the gap, courting friendly independents and McCain Republicans wont serve as the be-all-end-all.

3. It helps in a battleground state.Arizona is poised to be a significant swing state for the next decade with control of the Senate playing a key factor in 2022, 2024and 2028. That means media, moneyand resources will be plentiful Democrats must use every available resource to win this voter registration struggle.

It can be done. Look no further than Stacey Abrams and her amazing organizing and registration efforts in Georgia, which turned a reliably red state blue.

There are Democrats to be found across Arizona who only lack official registration, and there are unaffiliated voters who just need to be persuaded to join the ranks.

The good news is, Democrats have the state party leadership and the team in place to win this fight. But the 2022 train is leaving the station and Republicans have the registration advantage.

Mind the gap.

Matt Grodsky is vice president anddirector of public affairs at Matters of State Strategies.He is a precinct committeeman in Legislative District 28 and an Arizona Democratic Party state committee member. OnTwitter: @mattgrodsky.

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The rest is here:
Democrats could win more of Arizona in 2022. But they'll need to do this first - The Arizona Republic