Democrats’ chance to save the House majority runs through these districts – POLITICO
If House Democrats have any hope of saving their flimsy majority in 2022, or even just limiting GOP gains, it will be thanks to candidates like Salas. He is part of a group aiming to win roughly a dozen Republican-held House seats that Joe Biden carried in 2020 perhaps the only GOP districts that are truly vulnerable this fall.
In a midterm political environment leaning so heavily against Democrats, the party will need to win a large chunk of them to have any chance of remaining in power next year. Republicans need a net gain of just five seats to take the majority, and the GOP target list includes more than 10 Democratic districts Donald Trump carried in 2020.
Stiff national headwinds have stifled Democratic recruitment in many places, and some potential contenders opted to wait for a more promising year. But party operatives have landed top-tier Democratic candidates in many Biden-won districts, in part thanks to new favorable district lines. They are state legislators and military veterans and public school educators, among other backgrounds.
Redistricting has been obviously bad for Democrats in Ohio, but its been great in Cincinnati, said Democrat Greg Landsman, an early education advocate-turned-Cincinnati city council member whos taking on GOP Rep. Steve Chabot in 2022.
Chabot was protected over the last decade by a gerrymander that sliced Cincinnati in two. But the newly drawn district unites the city, transforming the seat from one Trump carried by 3 points in 2020 to one Biden won by 9 points. Its probably the best pickup opportunity that Democrats have in 2022. He never had to run in a district remotely this competitive, Landsman said of Chabot.Salas district also became more favorable for his party, by shedding some of Valadaos home base.
House Democratic strategists see Landsman and Salas as among their top eight prospects to flip a district this year. All were won by Biden in 2020 though rising inflation and Bidens plummeting popularity have made national Republicans operatives far less concerned than the 2020 numbers might warrant.
Even so, Democrats insist theyre going on offense. And several of the partys targets are in newly redrawn districts that voted for Biden by double digits, giving the party some hope even in a more hostile environment.
Perhaps Democrats single best target is in central Illinois, where the party transformed GOP Rep. Rodney Davis Springfield-area district into one Biden carried by 11 points. Davis jumped to a neighboring seat and a primary against a fellow Republican incumbent, clearing the way for Democrat Nikki Budzinski, a former adviser to Gov. J.B. Pritzker.
Another top Democratic target is in Western Michigan, where Republican Rep. Peter Meijer is now in a district that voted for Biden by nearly 9 points. And in southern New Mexico, former Las Cruces City Councilor Gabe Vasquez, a former aide to Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), is taking on GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell in a seat redrawn by state Democrats to tilt more to the left.
In Cincinnati, Landsman won his primary last week with no competition, allowing him to devote all his efforts against Chabot, whom he outraised last quarter. Democrats also expect another recruit up this Tuesday, Nebraska state Sen. Tony Vargas, to clear his primary on Tuesday and shift his focus toward GOP Rep. Don Bacon, who represents the Biden-won district in Omaha.
In interviews, many of these recruits insisted they were not discouraged by the ominous political environment because they feel their backgrounds are uniquely suited to their home turf.
Salas, for example, has racked up huge victory margins in his California state Assembly seat elections, attracting crossover voters by bucking his own party on issues including opposing the gas tax and supporting increased funding for police.
And in Nebraska, Vargas, the son of immigrants who became a public school science teacher, lost his father, a machinist, to Covid-19. He was outraged that Bacon voted against a pandemic relief package.
We need people that come from working-class backgrounds that also have experience getting things done, Vargas said.
Bacons last opponent was a self-declared socialist who lost to him in two consecutive elections after the incumbent painted her as too far left for the swing district. In contrast, Vargas touts his bipartisan streak in the state legislature: Ive been able to get a lot done across the aisle.
While some Democrats in the Biden-GOP districts are skating through primaries, others have been more contentious. In the Los Angeles area, Christy Smith is seeking her third matchup against Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) after losing the first two.
But some national Democrats are pushing for first-time candidate Quaye Quartey, a Navy intelligence officer. He and his supporters argue hes a better contender against Garcia.
He and I are both Naval Academy graduates, former officers even though I outrank him. Were both people of color, were both first generation Americans, Quartey said in an interview, as he compared their bios.
The seat, which Republicans unexpectedly won in a 2020 special election, went for Biden by double digits in 2020, as Garcia held on to the seat by just 333 votes last fall.
The past two cycles, with all due respect to the former candidate, we didnt get it done, Quartey said when asked about running against Smith.
Still, while Biden-won territory isnt solid ground for Republicans, it also means that many of the incumbents have experience winning elections in tougher environments than they may face in 2022. Garcia and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) who was one of just three Republicans in Hillary Clinton-won districts to survive the 2018 Democratic wave each have just under $2 million banked already.
Democrat feels their likely nominee against Fitzpatrick, Ashley Ehasz, has a compelling profile as an Army veteran but her campaign had just $90,000 on hand as of April.
And Democrats are a bit less optimistic about seats that Biden carried by a smaller margin. Democratic physician Asif Mahmood is challenging GOP Rep. Young Kim in an Orange County seat that Biden won by just 2 points. Navy veteran Jay Chen is slightly better positioned in Republican Rep. Michelle Steels neighboring district, which Biden won by 6 points.
In addition to California, Democrats had high hopes for New York where the partys state legislators had drawn a lopsided gerrymander. But the states high court tossed out the map, scrambling plans to turn at least three GOP-held seats into strong Biden districts.
One district in upstate New York, held by retiring GOP Rep. John Katko, is likely to remain a top, Democratic-leaning pickup opportunity. Attorney Josh Riley and veteran Francis Conole are running there.
But an open seat on Long Island and another GOP-held district on Staten Island are likely to be far less Democratic-friendly under the new court-drawn map. Thats bad news for former Rep. Max Rose (D-N.Y.), a Purple Heart-winning combat vet seeking a rematch with GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis on Staten Island.
Rose is one of a handful of Democratic candidates who are making another go this election after a previous failed bid with hope they can pull off a win in a slightly better seat.
Democrats are also throwing support behind Hillary Scholten, a former DOJ attorney, as she prepares to face Meijer in his newly redrawn district.
The freshman Republican once said his vote to impeach former President Donald Trump may have been political suicide but in addition to a GOP primary, he has to contend with a newly competitive district. The new lines, drawn by a nonpartisan commission, take in portions of Grand Rapids that Scholten easily won in 2020 and add voters from other Democratic strongholds, like 20,000-student Grand Valley State University.
Were going to target every last one of those voters and make sure they know they not only have a chance to influence this seat, Scholten said, but also have a nationally important impact on the battle for the House.
CORRECTION: A previous version of this report misstated Gabe Vasquezs title. He is a former Las Cruces city councilor.
View post:
Democrats' chance to save the House majority runs through these districts - POLITICO
- How Democrats Used the Word Affordability to Take On Trump - The New York Times - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Democrats see health care subsidies leverage in shutdown deadline - thehill.com - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Democrats are making 2028 moves. Heres what to know - CNN - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Examining Democrats 2025 Victories in Pennsylvania and What They Could Mean for the Future - The Center for Politics at UVA - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- DNC won't release its report on what went wrong for Democrats in 2024 - NBC News - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Even Democrats dont care if Bill Clinton is burnt by Epstein - The Times - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Andy Beshear builds buzz among Democrats for possible White House run - thehill.com - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Frustrations mount among survivors about House Democrats selective releases of Epstein files and photos - CNN - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- House Democrats release more Epstein photos, including Bill Gates and a dinner full of wealthy philanthropists - Fortune - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- If Democrats Campaign on Stopping Scam Calls, Theyll Be Re-Elected Forever - Home Current Affairs - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- In a close 2025 defeat, Democrats see the beginnings of a 2026 red-state surprise - CNN - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Democrats will not release the autopsy of their 2024 presidential loss - CNN - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- What the Government Shutdown Actually Revealed for Democrats - Home Current Affairs - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Trump at NC rally: Democrats will shut down government in January - thehill.com - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- STRUZZI: DEMOCRATS DODGED VOTE ON BILL PROTECTING WOMENS SPORTS - WCCS AM1160 & 101.1FM - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Blue Horizons: Charting the Path Forward for Texas Democrats - Houston Public Media - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Democrats demand answers as green card ceremonies are abruptly canceled - NewsNation - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Video Democrats react to expected partial release of Epstein files - ABC News - December 21st, 2025 [December 21st, 2025]
- Our message is simple: Democrats unite as GOP again struggles to address health care - Politico - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Barack Obama tells House Democrats that party should focus on the midterms, not ideological divides - ABC News - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Top Banking and Financial Services Democrats Joined by Dodd-Frank Authors File Amicus Brief Challenging the Administration's Illegal Efforts to... - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Jan. 6 police hero becomes go-to witness for Democrats in Congress to counter Trump - CBS News - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- WisDems: ICYMI: Wisconsin Democrats, Main Street Action hold press conference to address the bealth care crisis as ACA open enrollment for January 1st... - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Democrats From Schumer to Mamdani to AOC Face Big Year in 2026 - Bloomberg.com - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Missouri Sen. Hawley Votes with Democrats to Extend Health Care Subsidies Amid Local Concerns - KOAM News Now - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Democrats Are Playing with Fire in Texas - The Liberal Patriot - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- White Christian Clergy Running for Congress As Democrats Face Skeptics in Their Own Party - Word&Way - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- What we know about the Epstein photos released by Democrats - PBS - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Democrats gather in California feeling sunny once again - Politico - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Top Democrats call for investigation into share-buying spree by Trump allies - The Guardian - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Democrats mourn killing of Hollywood star and activist Rob Reiner - Politico - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Could Trump thwart Democrats by embracing their policies? What new poll shows. - Politico - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- House Democrats release Epstein photos with Trump, Bannon, Clinton and others - The Guardian - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Democrats want to win back Congress. First they need to weather their primary battles - CNN - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Pelosi suggests Trump has no 'reason' to be impeached third time if Democrats retake House - Fox News - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Sydney Hanukkah massacre leads New York Democrats to grapple with globalize the intifada rhetoric - Jewish Insider - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Top Democrats heartbroken by deaths of Reiner, wife - thehill.com - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- State of Texas: Crockett shakes up Senate race for both Democrats and Republicans - KXAN Austin - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- LIZ PEEK: Minnesotas fraud scandal exposes Democrats indifference to the needy - Fox News - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- DEMOCRATS UNITE AGAINST SYDNEY TERROR BUT FETTERMAN WARNS PARTYS ANTI-ISRAEL RIFT BOILING OVER - WCCS AM1160 & 101.1FM - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Reiner left a mark with Democrats, who are stunned by his killing - thehill.com - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- LETTER: Midland Democrats urge clean campaigns, unity in 35th race - Midland Daily News - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Democrats egos open the door for a GOP governor | California Focus - Oroville Mercury-Register - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- To win in 2026, Democrats need the voters they keep dismissing - The Boston Globe - December 16th, 2025 [December 16th, 2025]
- Democrats pushing for 3-year extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies - CBS News - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats test an affordability message in one of the nations richest districts - Politico - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- These voters backed Trump in 2024 and Democrats in 2025. What will they do in 2026? - NBC News - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats target Trump's affordability crisis in 2026 offensive - Axios - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats release Epstein Island photos as Maxwell argues against release of grand jury transcripts - ABC News - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats Need to Treat the Supreme Court Like the Villain It Is - The Cross Section | Paul Waldman - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Young Americans Hate Both Parties. They May Still Pick Democrats in 2026. - Cook Political Report - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Virginia Democrats to hold firehouse primary for Richmond senate race but what does that mean? - WRIC ABC 8News - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Senator Marshall: Democrats Are Refusing to Address Fraud - U.S. Senate (.gov) - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats eye a red-state push even as intraparty fighting persists - Politico - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Focus group: Trump voters who backed Democrats in 2025 frustrated with the economy - NBC News - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats question Trumps stamina after he appears to nod off in public - Roll Call - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Trump claims Democrats will try to pack Supreme Court if they win upcoming elections - The National Desk - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Groundbreaking NYT Op-Ed lays bare the Democrats internal battle over Israel - Mondoweiss - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Trump administration says it will withhold SNAP from states led by Democrats if they don't provide recipient data - PBS - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- A special election puts Democrats on track to flip the House - The Economist - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- More images of Epstein's private island home released by House Democrats - BBC - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- 12 House Republicans join Democrats to oppose redistricting, but bill advances to Senate - The Statehouse File - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats Briefed on Boat Strikes 'Disturbed' by What They Saw - Time Magazine - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats release never-before-seen images and videos of Jeffrey Epstein's island - Axios - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Steve Kornacki: How Democrats missed the mother of all upsets in Tennessee - NBC News - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- How Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear Thinks Democrats Can Win Rural America - The New Republic - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Steve Kornacki: GOP warning signs and lessons for Democrats in Tennessee's special election results - NBC News - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Senate Democrats to force vote on bill to extend health care tax credits for 3 years, Schumer says - CBS News - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats Raise the Stakes for Their 2026 Races By Making It About 2032 - NOTUS News of the United States - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats and Republicans are pouring money into a special election in Tennessee. Here's why - NPR - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Democrats in New Jersey Ram Through Bill to Defang a Corruption Watchdog - The New York Times - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Elise Stefanik accuses Mike Johnson of "getting rolled" by Democrats and lying about defense bill provision - CBS News - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Al Gore urges Democrats to send a 'shock wave' in Tennessee race - USA Today - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Democrats begin congressional probe of Kash Patel's use of FBI Gulfstream jet - CBS News - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Mandela Barnes Enters Wisconsin Governor Race, Joining Crowded Field of Democrats - The New York Times - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Why Democrats are so focused on Tennessees 7th District special election - NBC News - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- For Democrats, a New Way to Make Health Care Affordable - Washington Monthly - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Even Ahead of the Tennessee Special Election, Democrats Feel Bullish About Competing in Red Areas - NOTUS News of the United States - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Ro Khanna: Democrats must break with the Epstein class, or lose - The.Ink | Anand Giridharadas - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Williamson County Democrats to host election night watch party for Aftyn Behn - Williamson Herald - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]