Democrats 2014 problem? That intensity thing.

It's not Obamacare that is Democrats' big problem in the 2014 midterms. It's the intensity surrounding Obamacare that should be very worrisome to the party's candidates.

To start, consider the most recent Washington Post-ABC News pollthatshowed that the public was split down the middle over the law. Strong opposition to the law outpaced strong support overall in the survey. And strong Republican opposition surpassed strong Democratic support. The following chart tells the story.

Anew poll out Thursday confirmed what other recent surveys have also shown: Democrats' overarching health-care message is doing better than the alternatives in the eyes of the public, but intensity is a worry for the party. In the NPR surveyconducted by Democrat Stan Greenberg and Republican Whit Ayres, 49percent say "keep-it-but-fix-it" comes closer to their opinion on the Affordable Care Act as compared to 44 percent who align themselves with the predominant GOP posture, which is that the law has done more harm than good.

Both Republican and Democratic voters are lined up behind their party's message. In fact, Democratic intensity in support of "keep-it-but-fix it" is a bit higher than GOP intensity for its party's line. But independents line up with the Republican approach. Forty-two percent side strongly with the Republican message while just 33 percent side strongly with the Democratic one. Overall, independents align themselves with the GOP posture 50 percent to 43 percent.

Other polling has also shown that intensity isn't on Democrats' side in the lead up to the elections.

In a recentWall Street Journal/NBC News survey,47 percent of voters said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports repealing the law compared to 32 percent who said they would be less likely to do so. When it comes to candidates who support keeping and fixing the health-care law, voters were split; 45 percent said they would be more likely to vote for such a candidate and 42 percent said they would be less likely to do so.

All of these findings are problematic for Democrats looking to boost turnout among their base as Republicans are spending millions trying to make the 2014 campaign all about Obamacare.

There's already electoral evidence to suggest that Republicans have the high ground on health-care intensity: The results of the recent Florida special election. In a swing House district, the Republican candidate who supported repealing the law defeated the Democrat who supported keep-it-but-fix-it. Obamacare was a central issue in the campaign.

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Democrats 2014 problem? That intensity thing.

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