Mediaboss Marketing

Senator Raphael Warnock speaks during a Working for Georgia campaign rally in Conyers, Georgia, on August 18. Polls over the past month have consistently shown Warnock, who is up for reelection this fall, leading Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker by single digits. Photo: Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images

With just 11 weeks until Election Day, Democrats are trying to defy two close-to-ironclad rules of electoral politics: Parties that hold the presidency almost always perform poorly in the midterms, and their performance tracks fairly closely with the presidents approval rating. But while President Biden remains unpopular, a confluence of factors has put Democrats in a significantly better position than expected. Can it last? I spoke with Amy Walter, the publisher and editor-in-chief of the venerable Cook Political Report, to try to divine the answer.

Electorally speaking, everything suddenly seems to be breaking Democrats way. Among other developments: Gas prices are plummeting; inflation is coming down, albeit slowly;the party finally passed very significant parts of its agenda; and the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade seems to be galvanizing voters in Kansas and elsewhere. Youve got all these Senate polls from key states that are very encouraging for Democrats, and last week, Mitch McConnell said candidate quality may prevent Republicans from gaining the one seat they need to retake the chamber. Do you agree with his assessment right now?There is definitely a shift both in mood and momentum. I think a lot of us who do this for a living are trying to understand whats really behind that. I think there are a number of factors. The first is where the media focus has been for about the last four to six weeks, especially compared to where it was a year ago at this time. A year ago, what were we talking about? We were talking about the withdrawal in Afghanistan and all the problems that ensued. We were talking about the rise of inflation. We were talking about the fact that the administration was struggling to get ahold of the new Delta variant. You had all of those things in the media Zeitgeist.

What have we talked about for most of this summer? The January 6th hearings. Weve been talking and hearing a lot about the overturning of Roe v. Wade and whats next on abortion access. Weve been talking a lot about Donald Trump and not just with the FBI Mar-a-Lago situation but the candidates hes been endorsing and the folks running on platforms that rely heavily on election denial. I think this is one big reason for the shift were seeing. Instead of territory thats very problematic for Democrats, were now on terrain thats very problematic for Republicans. So then I get to the next piece, which is, Are Americans actually feeling better, and feeling better about the Democrats? I wrote about that, but its a little muddled.

You wrote that the fundamentals havent changed all that much.Right. The presidents not much more popular than before. The economy is better, but its still not great. Are people more optimistic? What Im really going to be watching for in these next couple of months is not whether voters think the economy has suddenly recovered or that everythings awesome but whether Americans are more optimistic. I think it helps Democrats if theres a sense that things are at least headed in the right direction and that they have something to sell to voters to say, Were actually doing something. Were taking this seriously. Were focused on the things that people care about.

At the end of 2021 and into much of 2022, if you looked at polling Navigator polling specifically because they do this in a really smart way people would be asked, What do you think Congress and Democrats should be focused on? And then What do you think theyre focused on? Theres been this big disconnect where voters are like, Well, what wed really like for them to do is deal with inflation or the economy. And they say instead, Well, theyre doing COVID, or theyre doing voting rights, but theyre not really focused on the stuff that matters to me.

It seems smart, then, that Democrats named this huge bill the Inflation Reduction Act when it actually has very little to do with inflation.Correct. It was interesting. Weve got to be careful not to extrapolate too much, but what I thought was interesting when I listened to voters in one focus group these are white men who either had voted for Trump in 2016 but voted Biden in 2020 or they voted for Trump but were like, Ugh, Im not a real big fan of his it was interesting to listen to them because it seemed as if they were agreeing that Democrats seemed to be at least doing something. One guy said, Well, at least they dont look like theyre sitting on their hands and saying, Not our problem. I think thats been very helpful to Democrats. But the question going forward is, Is it enough? Do voters need to actually believe that, because Democrats are now passing legislation called the Inflation Reduction Act, theyve now turned the ship around? Or do they believe that Democrats are still not as good as Republicans at handling these issues?

Bidens approval rating is in the low 40s right now, which is an improvement but also around where Trumps was at this time in 2018. How long can the party outpace those fundamentals with a presidential rating that bad?Thats what everybodys scratching their head about. I think Senate Democrats have done a good job of spending these months building up their profile, and theyve spent a whole lot of money building a positive story, a positive image for themselves. So many of them have spent millions and millions of dollars already on television. Mark Kelly, I think, is a prime example of that. So if, at the end of November or whatever, after Election Day, we come back and we say, Wow, how did Democrats hold the Senate? I think well look to the following: One, candidate quality. Two, the ability for Democrats to define themselves outside of Biden by spending a lot of money early on and building their profile. And three, Biden improving and the economy improving just enough that those candidates can rise above what would be a big shackle around them.

Going to your original question about the Republican candidates, I do think its a real problem. Because what so many voters have seen from Republican Senate candidates is a focus on things that are really important to Republican base voters. Do you have Trumps endorsement? Do you think that Americas too woke? Do you think that the transgender kids shouldnt play sports? Whatever it is.

Culture-war stuff.Culture-war stuff, with Trump at the center of it all, instead of really tackling the major issue here, which is, Do you think Democrats are doing a good job on the fundamental issues in this country? We know Republicans are going to reestablish that argument postLabor Day, but will it be too late? And are there other problems, other baggage, that makes it harder for them to be seen as credible? If Republicans had nominated candidates who were less controversial, had less baggage, were stronger just in terms of the quality of their profile, would they be doing better?

The Senate is in play, but most people have treated it as pretty much a foregone conclusion that Republicans will win the five seats needed to retake the House. However, FiveThirtyEight now rates Democrats as having about a one-in-five chance of keeping it. That would be a true shocker with few precursors. Do you actually see a universe where it happens?We have readjusted our range for Republican pickup downward.Were seeing that the red wave does not look as big today as it did a few months back. We were talking about somewhere in the range of 25 to 30 or 35 seats. Now its 15 to 20-something seats as the range. So were paring down the expectations. But the House is a different beast than the Senate. With the amount of money going into Senate races now, theyre almost mini-presidential campaigns in every state. Were talking about hundreds of millions of dollars.

Theyre so nationalized now in a way that they werent even a few years ago.Exactly. Thats what makes this really fascinating. We have a country that is as polarized as ever and fewer and fewer people flipping their allegiance or splitting their tickets. In some ways, that should mean that the party out of power benefits, the theory being its less about persuasion and its more about turnout. But I think whats been clear even before the Roe decision, though I think the Roe decision definitely pumped this up, is that were not seeing the drop-off that we may traditionally see in midterm elections for the party in power. The intensity is usually on the out-partys side. I just dont think thats going to be there this time.

It reminds me of what we saw in 2018. Democrats did well that year especially on the House side not necessarily because they turned out at levels that were so much higher than Republicans. They had better turnout, for sure. But what they also did was win over independent voters by double digits. Thats the other thing to watch as we go into this next 80 days. Its not so much just whether Democrats are going to turn out their voters because theyre all fired up. Its about independent voters. Thats going to come into focus, I think, once we get into September.

Yeah, in the post-2016 world, were living suddenly in a universe of high turnout all the time even for off-year elections. In the 2014 midterms, Democrats were completely unenthusiastic, and Republicans rode their wave of Obama disapproval.Its hard to imagine that happening again in our current climate.Both sides are really turning out. What makes for a 2014-like scenario or maybe even, if you go back in time to the quote-unquote olden days, the pre-2008 era is depressed turnout. Two thousand six, I think, was a really good example of this.

With everybody turning out, its hard to win in a red state if youre a Democrat.Its hard to win in a blue state if youre a Republican. You win in those purple places. Part of the way you win in the purple places is you get your side out, they get their side out, but you get those not-as-attached partisans we can call them soft partisans or independents to come to your side. Again, if you look just at the fundamentals, youd say, Well, what are those folks going to be interested in? Where are they in terms of the way they are thinking about this upcoming election?Who do they think is going to handle the economy better? Who do they think is going to help focus on the issues that matter to them, their day-to-day concerns? On those issues, Republicans have continued to have a pretty significant advantage with independent voters. But those voters are also probably feeling somewhat cross-pressured when they see Roe v. Wade being overturned and they think Republicans are more interested in fighting the ghosts of 2020 than for me.

As a polling obsessive, Ive learned to be wary of some of these surveys, particularly in certain states like in Wisconsin, where we have polls showing Mandela Barnes beating Ron Johnson. In 2016 and 2010, Johnson was supposed to be totally dead in the water according to polling. Then he won easily. Weve seen that pattern repeat a lot in recent years in states, particularly in the Midwest but not only there: North Carolina, Florida, Maine. Then you have other states where polls have been dead on, like Georgia. As a forecaster, how do you account for these enormous misses?You have to have a healthy dose of I dont know if skepticism is the right word, but you just have to be realistic. I think I am doing a couple of things. One is that I am not taking each and every poll and saying, Well, thats absolutely wrong or Thats absolutely right. Im marrying it with other things were seeing and appreciating and understanding about what is going on in that state beyond the individual race.Again, were all scratching our heads on this. Its not just that those polls have been off; its that in every one of those polls, we see that the Democratic Senate candidate is ahead of Biden and is ahead of, in many cases, a Democrat running for governor. I go, Hmmm.

Im looking at the presidents approval rating as a key indicator, not the only indicator. I do think youre right that we do have to be cautious not to be so attached to each and every one of these polls. Im trying to do a couple of things. One, just see where the mood is in that state overall. Thats the qualitative work with focus groups and others, trying to get at what people are grappling with. And then trying to just be sure were really appreciating the underlying dynamics in these races that go beyond the head-to-head numbers.

Back in ancient history, a few weeks ago, Democrats were struggling so badly that some officials were openly hoping Donald Trump would announce a reelection campaign before the midterms to boost turnout. That was the partys last best hope. But now that things have turned around, to what extent does Trumps ubiquity in the news which would obviously go into overdrive if he declared his candidacy affect midterm races?I think its definitely affected things in that it has turned the midterms away from just a pure referendum on Biden into a choice between two unpopular politicians. That is certainly a better situation if youre in a state that is purple and a Democrat. Its a great situation in a state thats blue and that went for Biden by bigger numbers. Virginia gave us a great road map here. I think part of why the Terry McAuliffe hair on fire about Donald Trump didnt work in Virginia is that it seemed just out of nowhere. He was just crying wolf. Its not as much of a cry at this moment. But youre not going to see Democrats put Donald Trump in their ads thats not how this is going to work. And much like in 2018, you dont see candidates talking about Donald Trump. Voters are very well aware.

Hes ambient. Hes in the atmosphere.Hes ambient. Thats a good way to say that. So if what youre hearing from voters isnt, Oh my gosh, Im so frustrated about how terrible the Biden administrations doing. Why arent they fixing the economy? Why did Biden screw up Afghanistan? How come Democrats cant get their act together in Congress? Instead of that coming out of voters mouths, what it is now is more like Gosh, things are still pretty messy. I hate that were still so divided. You hear things like that. Theyre more upset at the political system than at one political party. Thats a much better place to be if you are the party thats completely in charge than where we were two months ago.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Daily news about the politics, business, and technology shaping our world.

By submitting your email, you agree to our Terms and Privacy Notice and to receive email correspondence from us.

Continued here:
Could Democrats Really Pull Off a Miracle in November? - New York Magazine