Mediaboss Marketing

Who are the Indivisble and why have they flooded town halls across the country to protest President Donald Trump's agenda? ISADORA RANGEL/TCPALM.COM Wochit

Congressman Brian Mast, a new member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, invited committee Chariman Bill Shuster for an aerial tour of central and south Florida waterways and a press conference Jan. 17, 2017 in Stuart. The duo took questions from local media and attendees before heading back to the helicopter to continue their tour.(Photo: LEAH VOSS/TREASURE COAST NEWSPAPERS)Buy Photo

Democrats are betting low approvalratingsfor the GOP health care overhaul will help them win back a coveted Treasure Coast congressional seat.

U.S. Rep. Brian Mast is startingstrong going into the 2018 election, coming off an impressive 10-point win last year.

But Democrats already are targeting the freshman Republican from Palm Cityfor voting in favor ofthe controversial American Health Care Actthat 55percent of Americans view unfavorably, according to a May poll by the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation. Under the bill approved by the House, the number of uninsured people would rise by 23 million in the next decade, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

Democrats hopegrass-roots momentum, President Donald Trump's slumping approval ratings and voter anger over the billwill ignite a Democratic takeover of Congress. They envision something similarto the GOP wave after passage of the Affordable Care Act, aka "Obamacare,"in 2010.

Mast has come under attackby suchgroupsas Indivisible, a grass-roots movement created to resist Trump's agenda,as have GOP lawmakers across the country.

More: Mast and Indivisible foes trade barbs

Mast was one of two Florida lawmakers targeted in an onlinead campaignagainst 30 Republicans who voted for the health care overhaul. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which works to elect Democrats to the House, launched the campaign.

Ousting Mast, however, will be a steep climb.

He's raised almost $400,000 since January, and his seat is rated "solid Republican" by Inside Elections, a nonpartisan election analysis website.

District 18 leans slightly Republican; Trump won the districtby nine points. And Mast has established himself as an independent voice,nota D.C. insider, said Inside Elections publisher Nathan Gonzales.

Beingan Army veteran and double amputee also plays to Mast'sfavor, Gonzales said.

"I think Mast is going to be difficult to defeat," Gonzales said. "At the same time, I dont think the race is over; in some cases, the race hasnt even started yet."

Gonzales also cautionedabout comparing the role health care will play in 2018 to what it did in the GOP's takeover of 63House seats in 2010. Disapproval of Obamacare that year was a catalyst, but other issues induced voters to reject Democrats: the economy,the Wall Street and auto industry bailouts and the economic stimulus bill.

Still, Gonzalesexpects Democrats to pick up several seats next year.

And it's not clear whether health care still will be such a hotissue when congressionalelections take place inNovember 2018. The Senate is crafting its own version of the legislation, and thechangescould change some voters' minds.

"I think its much too early to tell on the 2018 election," said Martin County Republican Executive Committee chairman Toby Overdorf."I believe the opposition is trying to figure out where they want to stand."

More: Mast calls health care overhaul a "good bill"

Even if health care proves to be toxic for the GOP, Democrats will have to find a formidable candidate to go up against Mast. Not only is he considereda war hero, but he's alsoin tune with the district's top local issue, Lake Okeechobee discharges,filinga bill to expedite a reservoir to curb the releases.

Former U.S. Senate Democratic candidate Pam Keith(Photo: CONTRIBUTED PHOTO FROM PAM KEITH)

There are no official Democratic candidates yet, butseveral people are showing interest, saidDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Cole Leiter.

Pam Keith, whose grass-roots campaign for the U.S. Senate garnered 15 percent of Democratic primary votes last year, has set up a political committee to explore a candidacy. Retired Army Maj.Corinna Robinson, who ran unsuccessfully for Congress in South Dakota in 2014 and now lives in Tampa, is considering jumping in.

Keith, a lawyer and veteran, said she's energized by her meetings with groupssuch as Indivisible. She also said many constituents are unhappy with Mast's alignment with Trump.

She doesn't know when she'll decide whetherto run.

"The time is now," Keith said. "We have a representative who's not shown up for his constituents."

Mast is in a tough predicament. Voting against repealing Obamacare could jeopardize his standing with Republican voters. Trump won District 18 even carrying Democratic-leaning St. Lucie County promisingto repeal the 2010 law. But the details of the overhaul could anger moderate and independent constituents.

Republicans seem to be bettingthe bill the House passed in Maywill help incumbents keep their seats. A super PAC created by former Trump staffers began airingads urgingvoters to call Mast and thank him for standing with the presidentto repeal Obamacare.

Yet a poll conducted in Mast's district and14 others showsthe majority of voters who know how their representatives voted on the bill said they would prefer to electa Democrat next year. The poll was commissioned by two Democratic groups, Patriot Majority USA and Priorities USA.

Masthas defended his vote, saying the House billprohibits insurers from denying coverage to people with preexisting conditions and will lower insurance costs.

The plan, however, allows insurers to charge those with preexisting conditions more in states that get a waiver, and people whogo without insurance for more than 63 days would see their premiums go up.Older Americans also could pay more while younger people would get a break.

"This (bill) is very, very strong on preexisting conditions," Mast said. "It'sgoing to lowercostsfor peopleimmediately."

Read or Share this story: http://www.tcpalm.com/story/news/politics/2017/06/02/analysis-democrats-bet-health-care-bill-help-them-oust-u-s-rep-brian-mast/356530001/

See the original post:
Analysis: Democrats bet health care bill will help them oust U.S. Rep. Brian Mast - TCPalm