A decade of Obamacare: How health care went from wrecking to boosting Democrats – CNBC
U.S. President Barack Obama signs the Affordable Health Care for America Act during a ceremony with fellow Democrats in the East Room of the White House March 23, 2010 in Washington, DC.
Win McNamee | Getty Images
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi lost her gavel and regained it in this decade. Obamacare played a major role each time.
In 2010, a voter rebellion against the health-care law helped Republicans wallop Democrats and gain House control. Eight years later, Democrats made GOP efforts to scrap Obamacare the centerpiece of their campaigns and then won back the chamber.
"I'll just tell you that the lesson from all of this is that health-care policy is treacherous politics," said Carlos Curbelo, a former Republican congressman. He won Florida's swing 26th District in 2014 after a campaign in which he promised to repeal Obamacare, then lost his seat to Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in 2018 following a vote to scrap the law.
In the nearly 10 years since the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act became law in March 2010, it has gone from political anchor to tailwind for Democrats. President Barack Obama's signature legislative achievement became one of the defining issues of the decade and shaped recent elections more than just about any other policy issue.
"Backlash to the ruling party's actions on health care were a significant part of both the 2010 and 2018 waves," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of election forecasting site Sabato's Crystal Ball. He added that resistance to the law also probably helped the GOP in the 2014 midterms, especially after a messy rollout of the insurance exchange website in 2013.
Obamacare sentiment reflects broader trends in American political opinion, Kondik said. Voters often buck the party in power, so the Affordable Care Act was less popular under Obama but gained traction once President Donald Trump took office. Both Democrats and independents started to feel better about Obamacare after Trump entered the White House, driving the increase in popularity, according to monthly Kaiser Family Foundation tracking polls.
Democratic calls to maintain the law particularly its provisions protecting Americans with preexisting medical conditions appeared to resonate with voters when Republicans got a real chance to replace the health system.
"Health care was on the ballot, and health care won," Pelosi told reporters in November 2018 after Democrats flipped House control.
The landmark law better known as Obamacare offered new subsidies for buying plans, barred insurers from denying coverage based on preexisting conditions, allowed states to expand the joint federal and state Medicaid program for low-income Americans and let children stay on their parents' plans until age 26, among other provisions. Last year, 8.5% of the U.S. population was uninsured, down from 13.3% in 2013, before Obamacare fully took effect.
Before the shift, the Affordable Care Act appeared to hurt Democrats politically at the outset as Republicans billed it as a government takeover of health care.
While a plurality of voters approved of the law a month after its passage, sentiment changed before the 2010 midterm elections, according to Kaiser surveys. In October 2010, 44% had an unfavorable view of the law, while 42% saw it favorably.
In the 2010 elections, Democrats lost 63 House seats. Republicans flipped the chamber and kept control until this year. The GOP also gained six Senate seats.
The incumbent president's party almost always loses seats in midterm elections. Even so, Obamacare appeared to propel the Democratic drubbing.
Nearly half or 45% of voters said their 2010 vote was a message of opposition to Obamacare, according to exit polling cited by NBC News in 2014. Only 28% responded that their vote was a message of support for the law.
After Republicans took over the House in 2011, then the Senate in 2015, they tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act dozens of times. The party made opposition to the law a central part of its political messaging for years though Obamacare remained safe as long as its namesake president sat in the Oval Office.
The GOP gained another 13 House and nine Senate seats in the 2014 midterms. Following the election, then-House Speaker John Boehner said resistance to the health-care law drove the results.
"The American people have made it clear: They're not for Obamacare. Ask all those Democrats who lost their elections Tuesday night. A lot of them voted for Obamacare," he said in November 2014.
Exit surveys cited by NBC News suggest the health-care law had a smaller effect in 2014 than it did in 2010. Only 28% of voters said they wanted to express opposition to Obamacare, while 12 percent said they aimed to show support for the law.
When Trump won the White House and the GOP held control of Congress in 2016, Republicans finally got their chance to dismantle Obamacare. While the House passed a repeal bill in 2017, the Senate never could. The GOP fell one vote short in a dramatic late-night vote on a bill to roll back major parts of the ACA.
The Trump administration has managed to dismantle pieces of Obamacare, both through administrative and legislative action. The GOP tax law passed in 2017 to end the individual mandate, a divisive provision that required most Americans to have health insurance or pay a penalty.
Public opinion around the law started to shift after Republicans gained control of the White House and Congress and started to propose their own alternatives to Obamacare. For nearly all of the stretch from February 2013 to February 2017, monthly Kaiser polls found a larger share of adults had a favorable view of the law than unfavorable.
But in every month since May 2017, Kaiser has found more adults like the ACA than dislike it. In November, 52% of adults surveyed by Kaiser had a favorable view of Obamacare, versus 41% who had an unfavorable opinion.
Curbelo said opposition to Trump, and his most prominent policy push in trying to unravel Obamacare, helped to drive a rough 2018 election for the GOP.
"A large part of the debacle that was that election, certainly in the House, can be attributed to health care," he said.
The former congressman said he does not regret his vote to pass the American Health Care Act, the House Republican ACA overhaul, even now knowing he lost his seat. Curbelo said the vote "was about keeping [his] word" to repeal and replace Obamacare, which he had promised to do since he first ran for Congress.
At the same time, the top Democrats running for the party's presidential nomination all support Obamacare. They only disagree on how best to improve the system.
Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., want a "Medicare for All" system to move quickly to insure every American. Former Vice President Joe Biden and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg want Americans to have the option to buy into public insurance while keeping the private system.
"There is a significant segment on the left who appears to believe the ACA was insufficient, and even the candidates who are more moderate on health care, like Biden and Buttigieg, who want to do more on health care than the ACA did," Kondik said. "So at the very least, there seems to be some broad consensus that a future Democratic president/congressional majority should build on the ACA."
As the popularity of Obamacare and the former president himself have grown, Democrats have become more comfortable tying themselves to the ACA and Obama. In a presidential debate in September, Biden pointed to the fact that Warren said she was with Sanders on health care.
"Well I'm for Barack. I think Obamacare worked," he said.
In releasing his health plan in July, Biden also defended the law passed when he was vice president.
"I understand the appeal of Medicare for All," he said. "But folks supporting it should be clear that it means getting rid of Obamacare, and I'm not for that."
Graphics by CNBC's Nate Rattner
Subscribe to CNBC on YouTube.
Read more here:
A decade of Obamacare: How health care went from wrecking to boosting Democrats - CNBC
- Democrats pushing for 3-year extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies - CBS News - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats test an affordability message in one of the nations richest districts - Politico - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- These voters backed Trump in 2024 and Democrats in 2025. What will they do in 2026? - NBC News - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats target Trump's affordability crisis in 2026 offensive - Axios - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats release Epstein Island photos as Maxwell argues against release of grand jury transcripts - ABC News - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats Need to Treat the Supreme Court Like the Villain It Is - The Cross Section | Paul Waldman - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Young Americans Hate Both Parties. They May Still Pick Democrats in 2026. - Cook Political Report - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Virginia Democrats to hold firehouse primary for Richmond senate race but what does that mean? - WRIC ABC 8News - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Senator Marshall: Democrats Are Refusing to Address Fraud - U.S. Senate (.gov) - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats eye a red-state push even as intraparty fighting persists - Politico - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Focus group: Trump voters who backed Democrats in 2025 frustrated with the economy - NBC News - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats question Trumps stamina after he appears to nod off in public - Roll Call - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Trump claims Democrats will try to pack Supreme Court if they win upcoming elections - The National Desk - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Groundbreaking NYT Op-Ed lays bare the Democrats internal battle over Israel - Mondoweiss - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Trump administration says it will withhold SNAP from states led by Democrats if they don't provide recipient data - PBS - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- A special election puts Democrats on track to flip the House - The Economist - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- More images of Epstein's private island home released by House Democrats - BBC - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- 12 House Republicans join Democrats to oppose redistricting, but bill advances to Senate - The Statehouse File - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats Briefed on Boat Strikes 'Disturbed' by What They Saw - Time Magazine - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats release never-before-seen images and videos of Jeffrey Epstein's island - Axios - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Steve Kornacki: How Democrats missed the mother of all upsets in Tennessee - NBC News - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- How Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear Thinks Democrats Can Win Rural America - The New Republic - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Steve Kornacki: GOP warning signs and lessons for Democrats in Tennessee's special election results - NBC News - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Senate Democrats to force vote on bill to extend health care tax credits for 3 years, Schumer says - CBS News - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats Raise the Stakes for Their 2026 Races By Making It About 2032 - NOTUS News of the United States - December 5th, 2025 [December 5th, 2025]
- Democrats and Republicans are pouring money into a special election in Tennessee. Here's why - NPR - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Democrats in New Jersey Ram Through Bill to Defang a Corruption Watchdog - The New York Times - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Elise Stefanik accuses Mike Johnson of "getting rolled" by Democrats and lying about defense bill provision - CBS News - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Al Gore urges Democrats to send a 'shock wave' in Tennessee race - USA Today - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Democrats begin congressional probe of Kash Patel's use of FBI Gulfstream jet - CBS News - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Mandela Barnes Enters Wisconsin Governor Race, Joining Crowded Field of Democrats - The New York Times - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Why Democrats are so focused on Tennessees 7th District special election - NBC News - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- For Democrats, a New Way to Make Health Care Affordable - Washington Monthly - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Even Ahead of the Tennessee Special Election, Democrats Feel Bullish About Competing in Red Areas - NOTUS News of the United States - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Ro Khanna: Democrats must break with the Epstein class, or lose - The.Ink | Anand Giridharadas - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Williamson County Democrats to host election night watch party for Aftyn Behn - Williamson Herald - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Opinion | This Is the Story of How the Democrats Blew It on Gaza - The New York Times - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Indiana Democrats have a plan to stop Indiana's redistricting before it starts - Axios - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Democrats, Republicans call on big names ahead of special election - Nashville Banner - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Callicoon Democrats pick up donations for local food bank - The River Reporter - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Democrats winning on health care post-shutdown, some analysts say - Roll Call - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Stefanik accuses Johnson of 'siding with' Democrats in explosive House GOP leadership rift - Fox News - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- FBI seeks interviews with Democrats who appeared in video urging troops to defy illegal orders - PBS - December 2nd, 2025 [December 2nd, 2025]
- Column | Its called the six-year itch. Democrats hope it favors them for the Senate. - The Washington Post - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Senate Democrats are investigating the Kennedy Center for 'cronyism, corruption' - NPR - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Donald Trump Aghast at Sedition Democrats on TVShould Be in Jail - Newsweek - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Trump says he wasn't threatening Democrats he accused of 'seditious behavior, punishable by death' - NBC News - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Trump accuses Democrats of 'sedition' but the law disagrees - CNN - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Trump says he was 'not threatening death' to Democrats over video to troops - BBC - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Trump urges prison for Democrats who called on army to ignore illegal orders - The Times of Israel - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Democrats defend message to troops as Trump, officials suggest they be punished - ABC News - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Republicans and Democrats agree U.S. health care costs too much. Will they do anything about it? - The Spokesman-Review - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- First Thing: Outrage after Trump accuses Democrats of seditious behavior, punishable by death - The Guardian - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Democrats file police complaints over Trumps posts accusing them of sedition - Politico - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- After Prop. 50, San Diego may lose its only Republican in Congress as Democrats target Issa - CalMatters - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Democrats just won back voters whod embraced Trump. Will they stick around? - The Boston Globe - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Trump Accuses Democrats of Sedition, Punishable by Death, Over Message to the Military - The New York Times - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Democrats seek police action on Trumps threatening social media posts - The Washington Post - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Have Democrats Lost Voters Trust on Education? Not According to Most Polls - The 74 - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Democrats try again to reestablish legal deference to agencies on regulations - Government Executive - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Its called the six-year itch. Democrats hope it favors them for the Senate. - MSN - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Democrats and Republicans react to Trump's "seditious behavior" post after video emerges - CBS News - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Opinion | Trump Says the Epstein Documents Will Hurt Democrats, Too. Maybe Thats a Good Thing. - The New York Times - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Mark Mellman, 70, Dies; Helped Democrats Understand Their Voters - The New York Times - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- In Red Tennessee, Democrats Dream of the Unlikeliest of Upsets - The New York Times - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Why Democrats are warning about illegal orders to the military - Straight Arrow News - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- Democrats threatened after Trumps seditious behavior comment - NewsNation - November 23rd, 2025 [November 23rd, 2025]
- White House walks back Trumps suggestion of executing Democrats, stands by piggy insult to reporter live - The Guardian - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Democrats Finally Realize It Isnt 2016 Anymore - The Atlantic - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- I was right about the pathetic Democrats. And most Americans agree with me. | Opinion - USA Today - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Trump calls Goodlander and other Democrats 'traitors' for urging military to defy 'illegal orders' - New Hampshire Public Radio - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Democrats facing ethics complaints for Vail retreat will receive taxpayer-funded legal counsel - The Colorado Sun - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- This poll number hasnt been so favorable for Democrats since before the last blue wave - PBS - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- New poll reveals signs of hope for Democrats and red flags for Republicans - PBS - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Donald Trump said Democrats call to military amounts to sedition. Experts say thats doubtful - PolitiFact - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Poll: Democrats have biggest advantage for control of Congress in 8 years - NPR - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- In Tennessee, Democrats hope a coalition of the pissed off will flip a red district - The Guardian - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Trump accuses Democrats of seditious behavior over video telling military to refuse illegal orders - CBS News - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Details on Trump threat aimed at Democrats over video telling military to refuse "illegal orders" - CBS News - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]
- Cassidy pushes his Obamacare plan. Democrats arent biting. - Politico - November 20th, 2025 [November 20th, 2025]