A decade of Obamacare: How health care went from wrecking to boosting Democrats – CNBC
U.S. President Barack Obama signs the Affordable Health Care for America Act during a ceremony with fellow Democrats in the East Room of the White House March 23, 2010 in Washington, DC.
Win McNamee | Getty Images
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi lost her gavel and regained it in this decade. Obamacare played a major role each time.
In 2010, a voter rebellion against the health-care law helped Republicans wallop Democrats and gain House control. Eight years later, Democrats made GOP efforts to scrap Obamacare the centerpiece of their campaigns and then won back the chamber.
"I'll just tell you that the lesson from all of this is that health-care policy is treacherous politics," said Carlos Curbelo, a former Republican congressman. He won Florida's swing 26th District in 2014 after a campaign in which he promised to repeal Obamacare, then lost his seat to Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in 2018 following a vote to scrap the law.
In the nearly 10 years since the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act became law in March 2010, it has gone from political anchor to tailwind for Democrats. President Barack Obama's signature legislative achievement became one of the defining issues of the decade and shaped recent elections more than just about any other policy issue.
"Backlash to the ruling party's actions on health care were a significant part of both the 2010 and 2018 waves," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of election forecasting site Sabato's Crystal Ball. He added that resistance to the law also probably helped the GOP in the 2014 midterms, especially after a messy rollout of the insurance exchange website in 2013.
Obamacare sentiment reflects broader trends in American political opinion, Kondik said. Voters often buck the party in power, so the Affordable Care Act was less popular under Obama but gained traction once President Donald Trump took office. Both Democrats and independents started to feel better about Obamacare after Trump entered the White House, driving the increase in popularity, according to monthly Kaiser Family Foundation tracking polls.
Democratic calls to maintain the law particularly its provisions protecting Americans with preexisting medical conditions appeared to resonate with voters when Republicans got a real chance to replace the health system.
"Health care was on the ballot, and health care won," Pelosi told reporters in November 2018 after Democrats flipped House control.
The landmark law better known as Obamacare offered new subsidies for buying plans, barred insurers from denying coverage based on preexisting conditions, allowed states to expand the joint federal and state Medicaid program for low-income Americans and let children stay on their parents' plans until age 26, among other provisions. Last year, 8.5% of the U.S. population was uninsured, down from 13.3% in 2013, before Obamacare fully took effect.
Before the shift, the Affordable Care Act appeared to hurt Democrats politically at the outset as Republicans billed it as a government takeover of health care.
While a plurality of voters approved of the law a month after its passage, sentiment changed before the 2010 midterm elections, according to Kaiser surveys. In October 2010, 44% had an unfavorable view of the law, while 42% saw it favorably.
In the 2010 elections, Democrats lost 63 House seats. Republicans flipped the chamber and kept control until this year. The GOP also gained six Senate seats.
The incumbent president's party almost always loses seats in midterm elections. Even so, Obamacare appeared to propel the Democratic drubbing.
Nearly half or 45% of voters said their 2010 vote was a message of opposition to Obamacare, according to exit polling cited by NBC News in 2014. Only 28% responded that their vote was a message of support for the law.
After Republicans took over the House in 2011, then the Senate in 2015, they tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act dozens of times. The party made opposition to the law a central part of its political messaging for years though Obamacare remained safe as long as its namesake president sat in the Oval Office.
The GOP gained another 13 House and nine Senate seats in the 2014 midterms. Following the election, then-House Speaker John Boehner said resistance to the health-care law drove the results.
"The American people have made it clear: They're not for Obamacare. Ask all those Democrats who lost their elections Tuesday night. A lot of them voted for Obamacare," he said in November 2014.
Exit surveys cited by NBC News suggest the health-care law had a smaller effect in 2014 than it did in 2010. Only 28% of voters said they wanted to express opposition to Obamacare, while 12 percent said they aimed to show support for the law.
When Trump won the White House and the GOP held control of Congress in 2016, Republicans finally got their chance to dismantle Obamacare. While the House passed a repeal bill in 2017, the Senate never could. The GOP fell one vote short in a dramatic late-night vote on a bill to roll back major parts of the ACA.
The Trump administration has managed to dismantle pieces of Obamacare, both through administrative and legislative action. The GOP tax law passed in 2017 to end the individual mandate, a divisive provision that required most Americans to have health insurance or pay a penalty.
Public opinion around the law started to shift after Republicans gained control of the White House and Congress and started to propose their own alternatives to Obamacare. For nearly all of the stretch from February 2013 to February 2017, monthly Kaiser polls found a larger share of adults had a favorable view of the law than unfavorable.
But in every month since May 2017, Kaiser has found more adults like the ACA than dislike it. In November, 52% of adults surveyed by Kaiser had a favorable view of Obamacare, versus 41% who had an unfavorable opinion.
Curbelo said opposition to Trump, and his most prominent policy push in trying to unravel Obamacare, helped to drive a rough 2018 election for the GOP.
"A large part of the debacle that was that election, certainly in the House, can be attributed to health care," he said.
The former congressman said he does not regret his vote to pass the American Health Care Act, the House Republican ACA overhaul, even now knowing he lost his seat. Curbelo said the vote "was about keeping [his] word" to repeal and replace Obamacare, which he had promised to do since he first ran for Congress.
At the same time, the top Democrats running for the party's presidential nomination all support Obamacare. They only disagree on how best to improve the system.
Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., want a "Medicare for All" system to move quickly to insure every American. Former Vice President Joe Biden and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg want Americans to have the option to buy into public insurance while keeping the private system.
"There is a significant segment on the left who appears to believe the ACA was insufficient, and even the candidates who are more moderate on health care, like Biden and Buttigieg, who want to do more on health care than the ACA did," Kondik said. "So at the very least, there seems to be some broad consensus that a future Democratic president/congressional majority should build on the ACA."
As the popularity of Obamacare and the former president himself have grown, Democrats have become more comfortable tying themselves to the ACA and Obama. In a presidential debate in September, Biden pointed to the fact that Warren said she was with Sanders on health care.
"Well I'm for Barack. I think Obamacare worked," he said.
In releasing his health plan in July, Biden also defended the law passed when he was vice president.
"I understand the appeal of Medicare for All," he said. "But folks supporting it should be clear that it means getting rid of Obamacare, and I'm not for that."
Graphics by CNBC's Nate Rattner
Subscribe to CNBC on YouTube.
Read more here:
A decade of Obamacare: How health care went from wrecking to boosting Democrats - CNBC
- Wheels Up for Senate Democrats Who Leave TSA and Americans Grounded - House Committee on Appropriations (.gov) - March 15th, 2026 [March 15th, 2026]
- Opinion | The Democrats Could Still Mess This Up - The New York Times - March 15th, 2026 [March 15th, 2026]
- Democrats set a turnout record in Texas, so is this the year it turns blue? - NPR - March 15th, 2026 [March 15th, 2026]
- GOP urges Mills veto as Augusta Democrats review bills raising taxes on wealthy - WGME - March 15th, 2026 [March 15th, 2026]
- Trump says Democrats must cheat to win. What do his supporters think? - NPR - March 15th, 2026 [March 15th, 2026]
- Democrats deliver stunning flip in New Hampshire special election, latest in series of 28 upsets - The Guardian - March 15th, 2026 [March 15th, 2026]
- One month later, White House and Democrats no closer to ending the DHS shutdown - Politico - March 15th, 2026 [March 15th, 2026]
- Democrats Chances of Flipping Senate and House This Year Hit Record High - Newsweek - March 15th, 2026 [March 15th, 2026]
- Democrats file war powers resolution to prevent Trump from attacking Cuba without approval - The Hill - March 15th, 2026 [March 15th, 2026]
- What Kansas Democrats running for Congress said about immigration, ICE - The Topeka Capital-Journal - March 15th, 2026 [March 15th, 2026]
- Poll: California Democrats want to disband ICE - Politico - March 15th, 2026 [March 15th, 2026]
- Democrats see chance to flip 23rd District with Gonzales out - The Texas Tribune - March 15th, 2026 [March 15th, 2026]
- Democrats propose tax cut bill targeting working families - WDAM-TV - March 15th, 2026 [March 15th, 2026]
- Democrats propose tax cut bill targeting working families - Cleveland 19 News - March 15th, 2026 [March 15th, 2026]
- Mark Cuban names 2 up-and-coming Democrats he's impressed with, says the rest can't 'sell dollar bills for 50 cents' - Business Insider - March 15th, 2026 [March 15th, 2026]
- No endgame: Why US Democrats say Iran war hearing has them worried - Al Jazeera - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- Democrats Sued to Find Out Whether Trump Will Send Armed Officers to Election Sites - The New York Times - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- Senate Democrats ramp up pressure campaign for public hearings on war with Iran - NPR - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- White House, Democrats trade blame for missed paychecks and airport delays - Government Executive - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- Democrats Demand Hegseth and Rubio Testify on Iran War - The New York Times - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- E&C Democrats Press NTIA Administrator on BEAD Funding Updates & Stress Trump Executive Orders Do Not Supersede Federal Law - Democrats, Energy and... - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- Trump Has Handed the Democrats a New Winning Issue for the Midterms - New York Magazine - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- Democrats ask what happened to millions earmarked for Trumps library - The Washington Post - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- Senate Democrats demanded that President Trump immediately dispatch Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to testify under... - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- 'Forever war': Democrats rebut Trump's assertion that Iran war nearing end - CNBC - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- Senate Democrats threaten to seize the floor until White House agrees to public Iran hearings - MS NOW - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- Democrats need to choose love and unity over anger | Letters - IndyStar - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- Senate Democrats demand public hearings on Iran war - Stars and Stripes - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- Democrats sue Trump administration for information on possible plans for troops at polls - News From The States - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- Democrats file new war powers resolutions and call for public hearings on Iran strikes - The Guardian - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- A slew of indie candidates are running for Senate in deep-red states. Democrats arent all thrilled. - Politico - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- Jewish Democrats press for oversight as Trumps Iran war rages on - The Forward - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- Democrats face growing pressure to fund DHS amid airport lines and security crises - Denver Gazette - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- Democrats win GOP seat in New Hampshire, notching 10th straight special election flip - The Downballot - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- Democrats Running for Western Congressional Seat Draw Distinctions Between Their Campaigns in First Flathead Meeting - Flathead Beacon - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- 8 Democrats and no front-runner: Californias governor race is a mess - Politico - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- CT governor candidate Ryan Fazio blasts Democrats over post showing gun pointed at his head - CT Insider - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- Democrats say it will take more than enthusiasm to turn the tide against North Dakota Republicans - North Dakota Monitor - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- Democrats fuming after Iran War briefing: Im not sure what the end game is - Tucson Sentinel - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- NYS Senate, Assembly Democrats propose tax increase on wealthiest earners, corporations - WRGB - March 11th, 2026 [March 11th, 2026]
- The Iran War Is Giving Democrats a Chance. Will They Take It? - Bloomberg - March 9th, 2026 [March 9th, 2026]
- Special election offers Arkansas Democrats hope after years of struggles and setbacks - Arkansas Advocate - March 9th, 2026 [March 9th, 2026]
- Virginia Democrats look to expand window to pay off back rent before eviction - VPM - March 9th, 2026 [March 9th, 2026]
- Mayor Justin Bibb joins Third Way summit for moderate Democrats in South Carolina - Signal Cleveland - March 9th, 2026 [March 9th, 2026]
- Democrats seized on a surge in oil prices on Sunday, arguing that it was an immediate consequence of the war in Iran that would inflame an... - March 9th, 2026 [March 9th, 2026]
- Exclusive / Why Democrats will wait on Gonzales - Semafor - March 9th, 2026 [March 9th, 2026]
- The rural Democrats who say their party has affordability all wrong - Politico - March 9th, 2026 [March 9th, 2026]
- Lucas: Democrats the only friends Iran has left - Boston Herald - March 9th, 2026 [March 9th, 2026]
- Democrats, Divided on Past Middle East Wars, Unite Against This One - The New York Times - March 9th, 2026 [March 9th, 2026]
- Sen. Chris Murphy Says Democrats Need to Block Legislation Until Theres an Iran War Authorization Vote - News of the United States - NOTUS - March 9th, 2026 [March 9th, 2026]
- Were in it: Democrats wont rule out giving Trump more money for Middle East war - Politico - March 9th, 2026 [March 9th, 2026]
- LETTER: Why Democrats should support their nominee for Woodbridge supervisor: Sufiyan "Sef" Casim - Prince William Times - March 9th, 2026 [March 9th, 2026]
- How Talarico Won Texas Democrats With Love, Luck and a Little Restraint - The New York Times - March 9th, 2026 [March 9th, 2026]
- Latinos are turning away from Trumps GOP. That doesnt mean Democrats are entitled to their votes. - Inquirer.com - March 9th, 2026 [March 9th, 2026]
- How Democrats flipped 22 Georgia counties with a utility board race - Politico - March 9th, 2026 [March 9th, 2026]
- Heavily Hispanic areas have swung back toward Democrats in key off-year races as polls show the public souring on President Trumps handling of the... - March 9th, 2026 [March 9th, 2026]
- Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear campaigns for NH Democrats - WMUR - March 9th, 2026 [March 9th, 2026]
- Another TABOR fight: Democrats plan to redirect residents refunds to K-12 spending - Denver Gazette - March 9th, 2026 [March 9th, 2026]
- Brandon Herreras YouTube Gives Democrats More Hope in West Texas Race - The New York Times - The New York Times - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- Democrats are probing companies awarded a $220 million ad contract for ties to Noem, Lewandowski - NBC News - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- The Four House Democrats Who Voted Against the War Powers Resolution to Rein in Trump on Iran - Time Magazine - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- Do Democrats Want to Be Normal? Survey Analysis of Todays Democratic Coalition - Manhattan Institute - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- These are the WA Democrats who can, and must, shape income tax | Editorial - The Seattle Times - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- Trump voucher offers new money for public school students, and pressure for Democrats - The Washington Post - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- Democrats in Wisconsin and Minnesota urge release of funds for bridge replacement - WPR - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- Washington Democrats turn more power over to attorney general - Capital Press - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- Meet the four Democrats who handed Trump a crucial win on Iran strikes - TRT World - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- The Gap Between John Fetterman and the Democrats Is Widening - WSJ - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- The race for California governor is wide open. Thats a problem for the Democrats - CalMatters - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- Opinion | On Iran, Democrats Offer Only Partisanship - WSJ - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- Democrats Face Mounting Pressure to Oppose Any New Funds for War on Iran - Truthout - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- After failed resolution, Democrats last leverage over Iran war may be Pentagon budget - MinnPost - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- Democrats again pitch for BadgerCare public option to expand health coverage - Wausau Pilot & Review - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- NC Democrats oust 3 party lawmakers who crossed Gov. Josh Stein on veto overrides - WRAL - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- Democrats race to shore up support for war powers resolution as lines of opposition shift - The Hill - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- Kristi Noem's ouster isn't enough. Democrats say they want her to pay. - NBC News - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- Steve Kornacki: What Democrats' sky-high turnout in the Texas primary does and doesn't mean for November - NBC News - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- Contributor: The stars align for Democrats in Texas. Trump is helping them - Los Angeles Times - Los Angeles Times - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- Democrats pressure Mike Johnson to keep House in Washington over 'rapidly developing' Iran operation - Fox News - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]
- Here are the 4 Democrats who opposed the war powers resolution - The Hill - March 7th, 2026 [March 7th, 2026]