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The midterm elections are still nearly a year and a half away, and the political dynamics could yet change, but we shouldnt ignore the fact that history and the current environment are merging together for a potentially great set of elections for Democrats in November 2018.

The presidents party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterm elections, and its lost an average of 33 seats in those 18 elections. Democrats need to gain 24 seats in order to take back the majority.

President Donald Trumps job approval rating is slumping at 40 percent, according to the latest RealClearPolitics average, while 55 percent disapprove of the job he is going. Thats not good news for GOP candidates, consideringthatmidterms are often a referendum on the presidents performance and Trumps name wont appear on the ballot.

And Democrats also appear to have an edge in enthusiasm. From protest marches after inauguration to confrontational town halls with GOP members, Democratic candidates are overperforming in special elections. And with a 30-year-old former Capitol Hill staffer raising over $20 million in just a few months, Democrats are anxious for the next fight.

Of course, there is plenty of time for the political climate to change, but our Inside Elections ratings need to reflect the reality that Democrats have more takeover opportunities than if this was shaping up to be a status quo election, or certainly more opportunities than ifHillary Clintonhad been in the White House.

Weve changed our ratings in 19 races, including adding nine GOP-held seats to the list of competitive races and dropping one Democratic seat (Rep. Brad Schneider of Illinois 10th District) after the Republicans best potential candidate declined to run.

That means Republicans are now defending 39 seats on the list of competitive races compared to just 14 currently held by Democrats. That disparity isnt as large as prior to the 2010 elections when Democrats were defending 100 competitive seats and Republicans just nine, but just as its possible for the Republicans electoral prospects to improve, they could also get much worse.

Once again, there is plenty of time between now and November 2018. Well crown two Stanley Cup champions, the Washington Nationals can win two World Series, there will be two new NBA Champions, and the Seattle Seahawks will hoist another Lombardi trophy between now and the midterm elections.

For now, time should not be an excuse to ignore the fact that history and the current political dynamic favorsDemocrats and are good reasons to watch the fight for the House. For more detailed analysis of over 100 districts, check out the May 19 issue of Inside Elections.

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19 House Races Shift Toward Democrats - Roll Call