Theres a Reason Trump Is Fighting Hard for Arizona – The New York Times
PHOENIX At the start of 2020, optimistic Democrats already thought this might be the year when a presidential election turned Arizona blue again.
Many suburban moderates were fed up with President Trump; in 2018, they sent a Democrat to the Senate from their state for the first time in more than three decades. Young Latino voters who now make up 24 percent of eligible voters in Arizona were casting ballots at record rates, angered by the presidents anti-immigrant rhetoric. And the party was fielding a strong candidate for Novembers Senate race.
Now, four months until Election Day, that optimism is hardening into sustained confidence.
Mr. Trump is scheduled to campaign here on Tuesday, in a state whose 11 electoral votes he badly needs to hold to be re-elected, especially if he loses any of the three Midwestern states he flipped in 2016.
Democratic officials believe that frustrations over Mr. Trumps immigration policies and his handling of the pandemic, as well as polling trends, indicate that Joseph R. Biden Jr. has the best shot of any Democratic presidential candidate to win Arizona since Bill Clinton carried the state in 1996. And the Biden campaign sees winning Arizona as not just a path to victory, but also a confirmation that Latino and immigrant voters are a strong and dependable part of the party.
Mr. Trump will arrive in Phoenix in a moment of acute turmoil in Arizona. The coronavirus pandemic is growing evermore deadly in the state, which is experiencing some of the steepest spikes in the country. Thousands of protesters have filled the streets for weeks, angered not only by the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis that led to nationwide demonstrations, but also over the case of Dion Johnson, 28, a black man who was shot and killed by state troopers last month after being found asleep in a car on a Phoenix highway.
For frustrated and anxious voters, the dual crises of police brutality and a pandemic point to an opportunity for Democrats.
There are people coming to protests who have never shown up before, who are seeing the kinds of things weve seen for years and that will unquestionably help us, said Representative Ruben Gallego, a Democrat who represents Phoenix and is an enthusiastic supporter of Mr. Biden, the former vice president and the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Still, Mr. Gallego and other Democrats know what formidable odds they have in Arizona. The state has long been a hotbed of conservative activism; it was here that anti-immigrant politicians rose to power in the early 2000s, using the same kind of rhetoric later embraced by Mr. Trump.
The Republican governor, Doug Ducey, easily captured the state with 56 percent of the vote in 2018 and the legislature is controlled by the G.O.P. Though Hillary Clinton spent considerable money in the state and many in her party were optimistic in 2016, Mr. Trump won with 48 percent of the vote.
As many Arizonans attempt to return to a pre-pandemic life, flocking to indoor bars and restaurants amid triple-digit temperatures, interviews with dozens of voters in the Phoenix area in the last week showed how the governments impact on everyday life was increasingly on their minds.
For a long time, it was hard to understand what politics has to do with you, like thats something over there and youre over here, said Bethany Marshall, 31, a math teacher in Phoenix and occasional Democratic voter. Now, were doing, were watching, were not going away.
For nearly three weeks, Ms. Marshall and several of her friends have joined marches near the State Capitol, where razor wire and a double-layer chain link fence keep protesters away from the building. A few feet away two monuments face each other: one is for Martin Luther King, the other commemorates the confederacy. All the crowds have been filled with black, brown and white faces, most of them young.
At protests, one speaker after another implores the crowd to vote. Register to vote here, and if youre already registered, find five friends who are not.
The only way for enough to actually be enough is to get out there and vote, have people with faces who look like mine, to get police to stop harassing us, Alexander Sojourney, a recent graduate of Arizona State University and the organizer of a protest earlier this month, told a large crowd marching to the capitol. Get people in office who can fix that and change that.
Those crowds, and voters like Mr. Sojourney, are part of the reason that Democratic officials are confident they can win both the presidential and Senate races in the state.
The Biden campaign has repeatedly called Arizona one of its prime targets and Mark Kelly, the Democratic Senate candidate, has a multimillion dollar fund-raising advantage over Senator Martha McSally, his Republican opponent. Polls have shown Mr. Kelly with a double-digit lead and Mr. Biden ahead of Mr. Trump.
Arizona voters are roughly evenly split on party registration, according to the secretary of state, with Republicans making up 34.9 percent of the electorate, Democrats 32.5 percent and unaffiliated voters the fastest growing group 31.8 percent. And in a state where voting by mail is already widely embraced, Democrats say their advantage could be even stronger.
In the final three months of the 2018 campaign, for every two voters that registered as Republicans in the state, three registered as Democrats, which helps explain how several Democrats won statewide office that year.
Nowhere is the liberal optimism more prevalent than in Maricopa County, home to Phoenix and the majority of Arizonas population. In 2016, when Mr. Trump won the state, Maricopa voters also kicked out Joe Arpaio, the longtime Republican sheriff who had championed draconian anti-immigrant policies. The county is widely seen as the most competitive in the country.
The same people who defeated Arpaio will defeat Trump, said Mr. Gallego.
Democrats are not only counting on younger new voters they are also focused on convincing suburban moderates that they should abandon the Republican Party.
Aaron Marquez, a former captain in the Army Reserves, runs VetsForward, a Democratic-aligned group that relies on military veterans to sway voters in swing districts.
He spends time each week in the northwest suburbs of Phoenix, areas that were once entirely retirement communities but increasingly attract families in search of more affordable housing, delivering boxes of food to potential voters in need.
They set down boxes overflowing with milk, tortillas, grapes and sprinkled doughnuts and ask people what they would want Mr. Trump to know about the virus and its impact on their lives.
Mr. Marquez has met plenty of people who are frustrated, but the program also indicates the challenge for Democrats. With each delivery, voters are asked to rank the presidents handling of the pandemic on a scale of zero to 10. Among the roughly 100 deliveries so far, the responses have been about evenly split.
And Republicans are hardly ceding the state. Mr. Trump will land here Tuesday for his third visit in the last five months, speaking at a Phoenix megachurch in an event billed for college students. Last weekend, Ms. McSally held her first in-person fund-raiser in months, with guests sipping on Martha-ritas at an airport hangar.
Ms. McSally said she approved of Mr. Duceys handling of the pandemic. Some other states have been very draconian and dictatorial, she said, adding that she preferred Arizonas approach of giving people information and allowing them to make good decisions for themselves.
When Arizona started to open up, I went and got my haircut, was able to safely do that, she said, describing her desire to support small businesses. I go out to restaurants. Im young and healthy. I went and got a pedicure.
In a state strangely split between lockdown and an embrace of normalcy, there is widespread confusion and distrust of the government. Those who feel invincible or rebellious are heading to bars even as hospitals report that they are close to running out of space in their intensive care units.
Democratic mayors in Phoenix and Tucson clashed for weeks with Mr. Ducey, who until last week had prevented them from requiring face masks in public. (The mayor of Phoenix has said that the city has no plans to issue citations to anyone not wearing masks at the presidents event Tuesday.)
And even among protesters, there is far from universal enthusiasm for Democrats, particularly Mr. Biden and Mr. Kelly. Leighton Mendez, 24, a Phoenix resident at another protest, said that her prior lack of interest in voting had been replaced with an understanding that elected officials decide on policy that affects her.
Im not sure why it took this long, but being out here, Im really connecting the dots, she said, though she quickly added: It is not enough to just be not as bad as the other guy.
Diane Fellows Morazan was also out protesting, wearing a T-shirt with a handwritten message: Today we march, November we vote.
More of us are angry, more of us are eager to do something with whatever power we have, and we know thats with our ballot, she said.
There are other signs that even once-loyal Republicans are considering a change this fall. Black Lives Matter protests have taken place in dozens of suburbs once seen as conservative throughout the state.
Jenna Plopper, 31, of Surprise, Ariz., said that after voting for Mr. Trump in 2016, her perspective started to change. In the past month, she has attended several demonstrations against police brutality in the suburbs, along with many other young, white mothers.
Ms. Plopper said that while many of her Republican friends planned to support Mr. Biden, she was leaning toward a third-party candidate. What she is certain of, though, is that this year is different from 2016.
I kind of just took the outlook from my parents: youre going to vote, and this is how we vote, she said, of her support for Mr. Trump. I saw him as a lesser of two evils. Now, after listening to all he says and his actions, a lot of people like me are saying we dont want this guy.
More here:
Theres a Reason Trump Is Fighting Hard for Arizona - The New York Times
- Cuomo: Mamdani has advantage as the Democrat on ballot - The Hill - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Morning Digest: An Arizona Democrat looks to expand the House playing field - The Downballot - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- 'Hell no, not on our watch': Texas Democrat ready to break quorum to block redistricting - Houston Chronicle - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- State audits find Democrat Jefferson County tax collector JT Smallwoods office in noncompliance - 1819 News - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Exclusive: Democrat on Bipartisan Push to Undo Part of 'Big Beautiful Bill' - Newsweek - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Better than this - Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Texas Democrat Tells Joe Rogan His Advice to GOP That Trump 'Tapped Into' - Newsweek - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Democrat from Trump country auditions for 2028 with plan to win culture wars - The Washington Post - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Democrat credits Trump for opening door to Syrias new government - Washington Times - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Sonoma Raceway security guard charged with assaulting wheelchair-using racer during NASCAR event - The Press Democrat - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- A red-state Democrat test-drives a 2028 message: From the Politics Desk - NBC News - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Democrat Joe Jaworski to run for Texas attorney general again - The Texas Tribune - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Key Democrat sends letter to Fox News seeking info on edited Trump interview - MSNBC News - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Andy Beshear introduces himself to South Carolina as the normal Democrat - Semafor - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Ron Wyden, a Democrat, Wont Let Go of the Jeffrey Epstein Case, Either - The New York Times - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Democrat voters who sat out last election want candidates further to the left: poll - The Independent - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Is Phillys DA race over? Republicans are polling whether Democrat Pat Dugan could beat Larry Krasner as the GOP nominee. - Inquirer.com - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- A top Democrat believes Fox may have deliberately sought to shield then-candidate Trump from any further association with Epstein. - Yahoo - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Sonoma County family loses their dream home after yearslong battle over permits, court-appointed cleanup company - The Press Democrat - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- What to know about the race to replace the late Arizona House Democrat - USA Today - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Alabama Democrat who flipped seat held by Republican for 20 years is leaving office - AL.com - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Scoop: House Democrat probes Trump's 22-year-old terror prevention official - Axios - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Cuomo says he is Democrat, running on an independent line and Mamdani is socialist on the Democratic line - The Hill - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Opinion: From a Democrat: The importance of Ron Hart and differing opinions - Chattanooga Times Free Press - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- The Texas Democrat Trying to Force Trumps Hand on Epstein: It Seems Like Hes Trying to Cover Up - Vanity Fair - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Democrat accuses Trump administration of diverting 'critical resources' from fighting organized retail theft - Fox News - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Opinion | As Democrat Beshear eyes 2028, hell need to deal with the groups - The Washington Post - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- 'What are you hiding?': Democrat urges admin to release Epstein files - USA Today - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Virginia Democrat on possible shutdown: Its time to stand up for the American people - The Hill - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Bernie Sanders on AIPAC: "No Democrat should accept their money" - The Jerusalem Post - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Tame that red afro: And other things Id have done if I knew then what I know now - Belleville News-Democrat - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Temporary closure of Sacramento National Wildlife Refuge for construction - Daily Democrat - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- I'm a Zionist Democrat. Mamdani has me asking if I must choose between my ideals and identity - The Forward - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Game on: Fields fill for Tennessees open 6th and 7th U.S. House seats; a Democrat in District 5 - Tennessee Lookout - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- House Democrat Calls on Kristi Noem To Resign Over ICE Lies - The Intercept - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Democrat rhetoric has gone from defund the police to attack the police, says GOP rep - Fox Business - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Vote 2026: Fellow Democrat gets in the governors race before Lamont - News 12 - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Palmer predicts GOP will increase majority 'The Democrat policies are so stupid' - 1819 News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- 2028 Watch: Another Democrat Contender Heads To South Carolina - FITSNews - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- PD reporter spends hours fishing at Santa Rosa lake with a rattlesnake in his kayak. Experts say he got lucky - The Press Democrat - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Democratic Party of Arkansas chair announces he will step down effective July 15 - Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Democrat who says he stands for underdogs will be one in quest to unseat Hal Rogers - Kentucky Lantern - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Rep. McCollum Joins Every Senate and House Democrat in Opposing the One Big Ugly Bill - Congresswoman Betty McCollum (.gov) - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Mayors Fourth of July celebration - River Valley Democrat-Gazette - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Democrat Jeffries Sets Record In Speech Delaying House Vote on Trump Bill - Yahoo Finance - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Lucas: Trump should demand the unconditional surrender of the Democrat Party - Boston Herald - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- There will be consequences for GOP in 2026 after passing Trump's bill, says House Democrat - NBC News - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Appeals Court Lets Trump Remove Another Democrat From Independent Agency - The New York Times - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Democrat Warned To 'Avoid Vulgar Speak' After Ripping Trump-Backed Bill - Newsweek - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Democrat sets record with 8.5-hr speech before vote on Trump bill - Times of India - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Pennsylvania House Democrat on Fetterman: If you dont want to be here, leave - Politico - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Democrat Colin Allred announces he will run for U.S. Senate again - Houston Chronicle - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Democrat Colin Allred is running again for US Senate in Texas - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Dan Haar: CT's top Democrat on how the party outside of New York should respond to Zohran Mamdani - CT Insider - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Geoff Duncan weighs whether to run for Georgia governor - as a Democrat - AJC.com - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Democrat Rips Fettermans Beach Gripe: If You Dont Want to Be Here, Leave - Yahoo - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- 2nd Democrat announces campaign to unseat GOP congressman - Grand Haven Tribune - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Democrat Colin Allred announces campaign for Cornyn's seat, O'Rourke testing the waters - fox4beaumont.com - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Longtime Pa. Democrat says he wont run for reelection to Congress - PennLive.com - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Democrat McMorrow to report $2M haul for Senate bid - The Oakland Press - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Pat Williams, Last Montana Democrat to Serve in the House, Dies at 87 - The New York Times - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Democrats fight to exercise their oversight duties - The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Democrat Billie Butler wins special election to represent Somersworth and Rollinsford in NH House - New Hampshire Bulletin - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Democrat Wyden presses Bessent to commit to US sanctions on Russia - Reuters - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- House Democrat demands VA disclose any spyware, AI installed on agency computers as part of DOGE initiative - Stars and Stripes - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Zohrans Next Challenge: Another Disgraced (Former) Democrat - Mother Jones - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Trump wins over lifelong Democrat with 'big, beautiful bill' and more top headlines - Fox News - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Rep. Robert Garcia elected top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee - NBC News - June 26th, 2025 [June 26th, 2025]
- Rep. Robert Garcia elected top Democrat on Oversight panel, setting new path for partys opposition - Federal News Network - June 26th, 2025 [June 26th, 2025]
- Hear heated exchange between Pam Bondi and Democrat over possible foreign influence on Trump - CNN - June 26th, 2025 [June 26th, 2025]
- 88-Year-Old House Democrat's Staff Walks Back Comments on Reelection Bid - Newsweek - June 26th, 2025 [June 26th, 2025]
- Top Democrat says Trump strikes on Iran a 'massive, massive gamble' - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- As a Seventy-Two-Year-Old Democrat, Am I Too Young to Run for Congress? - McSweeneys Internet Tendency - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Democrat AGs push to move OB-GYN tests out of Texas - Dallas News - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Robert Garcia earns key backing for top Democrat on House Oversight Committee - Washington Examiner - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Top House Intel Democrat warns 'we have no idea' yet whether U.S. strikes were successful - CNN - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Senior Democrat blasts Trump for not seeking congressional authorization for Iran strike - The Times of Israel - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- The Star Democrat's top 10 online stories this week - The Star Democrat - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Robert Garcia is a young Democrat with an old-style approach to moving up the House ladder - Politico - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Democrat Party reaches consensus to remain in government coalition - Nation Thailand - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]