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Leaving aside, for now, possible Election Day consequences if the U.S. Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, or further damning revelations in the House Bill 6-FirstEnergy scandal, Ohio Republicans are sitting pretty as the state slogs into Campaign 22. The primary election for state legislative offices will be held on Aug. 2, the general election on Nov. 8.

Republican Gov. Mike DeWine and Democrat Nan Whaley, once Daytons mayor, are vying for the governorship. And Republican J.D. Vance, a Middletown native, and U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, a suburban Warren Democrat, are competing to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman, of suburban Cincinnatis Terrace Park.

There are facts that separately favor Republicans in each contest.

Fact one, as to DeWine-Whaley: The last time Ohioans retired a Republican governor was in 1958. But voters have since retired three Democratic governors Govs. Michael V. DiSalle in 1962, John J. Gilligan in 1974, and Ted Strickland in 2010.

Fact two, as to the Vance-Ryan contest: Since Ohioans began to directly elect senators in 1914 by sending Marion Republican Warren G. Harding to the Senate there have been 10 Senate races in which, like this years, neither Ohio nominee was the incumbent. Republicans won nine of those contests. The exception: 1974, when Democrat John Glenn beat the GOPs Ralph Perk, then Clevelands mayor.

True, in Ohio elections, as in all things, history isnt necessarily destiny. As the great historian Gordon Wood wrote, If history teaches anything, it teaches humility. So, at this stage of their campaigns, Whaley, for governor, and Ryan, for the Senate, stand every chance of besting DeWine and Vance, respectively. But to the extent the past can suggest patterns, theyre each going to have to campaign extra hard, and extra widely, in Ohio.

Also on the statewide ballot are races for attorney general, state auditor, secretary of state and state treasurer. Republicans hold those posts now, and unless a scandal erupts, or someone dumps a ton of money into the campaigns of Democratic challengers for those offices, the Republicans who hold them now are likely to be holding them next year.

Meanwhile, in the struggle for the Ohio General Assembly, Republicans are well-positioned again, absent further seamy revelations about the HB 6-FirstEnergy affair.

Even if newly drawn General Assembly districts werent biased in favor of the GOP and they are Republicans running for Ohios House and state Senate hold a huge fundraising edge over Democrats.

Thats long been true at the Statehouse: Once a General Assembly caucus is in the minority (as state Senate Democrats have been since January 1985, and Ohio House Democrats since January 2011), its members basically become legislative spectators, not bill-passers. The people who fund campaigns, though, are usually looking for bill-passers, not bystanders. The lobbies are interested in results. And only a majority caucus can produce those.

Beyond DeWine-Whaley and Ryan-Vance, this years pivotal contests for people who ... invest ... in state government will likely be the race for three state Supreme Court seats.

To recap: Republican Chief Justice Maureen OConnor, who sided with Democrats in this years fight over legislative districts, is retiring. Competing to succeed OConnor are Democratic Justice Jennifer Brunner and Republican Justice Sharon Kennedy.

Seeking re-election are Republican Justices R. Patrick Pat DeWine, the governors son (challenged by Democratic 1st Ohio District Court of Appeals Judge Marilyn Zayas of Cincinnati), and Patrick Fischer (challenged by Democratic 10th Ohio District Court of Appeals Judge Terri Jamison of Columbus).

Ohio Supreme Court contests have become even more critical for both parties: Because of Ohios redistricting mess, this years wrestling match over General Assembly lines will play out again in 2023 and 2024 because the General Assembly districts used in this Novembers election will depending on more courtroom jousting be redrawn again for 2024s election.

Whether Brunner or Kennedy is elected chief justice, Mike DeWine would appoint a Republican to the remainder of either justices term as an associate. Thatd leave the court 4-3 Republican. But if Democrats unseated Pat DeWine or Fischer, thatd make the high court 4-3 Democratic and leave utilities, insurance companies and the General Assemblys GOP caucuses very unhappy. They like things the way they are. But do ratepayers and policyholders?

Thomas Suddes, a member of the editorial board, writes from Athens.

To reach Thomas Suddes: tsuddes@cleveland.com, 216-408-9474

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The odds, and the money, are against Ohio Democrats in the fall: Thomas Suddes - cleveland.com