The Liberal Democrats Bet on a Brexit Election. It Hasn’t Paid Off – TIME
Liberal Democrats leader Tim Farron (C) speaks as Nick Clegg MP (R) and Liberal Democrat MP for Richmond Park Sarah Olney look on during a rally at the Shiraz Mirza Community Hall on June 1, 2017 in Kingston upon Thames, England. Leon NealGetty Images
Its a cold evening in April, and a loud bang has just stopped a huddle of political canvassers in South London. He shut the door in my face, says Richard Phillips, a 62-year-old retired advertising executive campaigning for the Liberal Democrats party in the constituency of Vauxhall. I suppose they wont be voting for us, he says to George Turner, the Liberal Democrats candidate for Vauxhall who is attempting to take the seat from the local MP. The group moves on, to bang on more doors and hand out more leaflets.
Doors have been slamming across the U.K. over the past six weeks as voters are presented with yet another set of political pitches on their stoops before the snap general election on June 8, called by Prime Minister Theresa May a little less than two months ago. It's the third vote in three years here, after the general election of 2015 that delivered David Cameron a parliamentary majority and last year's 'Brexit' referendum that forced his resignation.
May launched the election as a bid to boost her mandate in the upcoming negotiations to leave the E.U., and many expected Britain's future outside the political and economic bloc to be the focus of the race. On the face of it, this seemed like good news for the Liberal Democrats Britain's third party, created in 1988 as a center-left alternative to the two largest parties. Having been all but wiped out in the 2015 election, the "Lib Dems" plotted a comeback built on the support of anti-Brexit voters. The "Lib Dems" launched a manifesto calling for a second referendum on the final Brexit deal, where voters can either accept the deal or choose to remain in the E.U. something both Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party and May's Conservative Party, or "Tories," have ruled out.
Promising a do-over on "Brexit" should logically have been a popular pitch the 16 million Remainers number five million more than the Tories total vote share in 2015, and nearly 7 million more than Labours. A vast center-ground remains unaccounted for as the countrys biggest parties become more polarized, tilting their messages further left and right on the political spectrum. The election was called because of Brexit, would-be MP George Turner tells TIME. In many ways this is a single issue vote."
But polls suggest the Liberal Democrats will gain barely any seats at all on June 8. Analysts predict that they will struggle to win back its seats in rural, Euroskeptic areas, especially in South West England. [The result] is going to be patchy, Tony Travers, an elections expert at the London School of Economics, tells TIME. The Liberal Democrats set their stall so strongly against Brexit and in favor of another referendum, have got virtually nowhere with it. Betting on Brexit is looking like a bust.
Two years ago, it looked as if the Lib Dems had hit rock bottom. The party went from holding 48 parliamentary seats to just eight after the 2015 election, as younger and left-leaning voters punished the party for the five years it spent in coalition government with the Conservative Party. The Lib Dems were seen to have reneged on key promises, most infamously a pledge to stand in the way of tuition fees for higher education that was dropped under pressure by their Conservative partners.
The party was enthusiastically anti-Brexit in the referendum campaign, and defeat appeared to galvanize it in opposition. Under new leader Tim Farron, the party rode an anti-Brexit strategy to success in December in a local election in the London constituency of Richmond. More than 100,000 people joined the party in the wake of the referendum, among them Rachel Johnson, a prominent journalist and sister of vocal Leave campaigner Boris Johnson , now Foreign Minister. Speaking to a Brexit convention on May 12 in London, Johnson said, to loud cheers from the Remain-leaning audience, she became a Liberal Democrat because the party was offering voters a second look at whatever deal there is.
Some 600 pro-European candidates also flocked to the Lib Dem ranks; people like George Turner. His key rival in Vauxhall an urban constituency of about 73,000 people is Kate Hoey, a former Labour Party cabinet minister who was among the most vocal Brexiteers. Hoey even joined former far-right leader Nigel Farage on the campaign trail. Turner, by contrast is a British-Croatian national who voted to remain in the E.U. Almost 8 in 10 of his potential constituents did, too one of the highest shares against Brexit in the country.
And yet the polls have consistently given the Liberal Democrats between 7 and 10% of the vote which will likely give them roughly the same result as last time around.
In many ways, it's not their fault. A handful of political upsets, which includes a terrorist attack in Manchester and another assault at London's Borough Market five days before the vote, has tilted a one-issue vote into a traditional race focused more on domestic issues such as social services, security, austerity and the countrys creaking health provider, the National Health Service (NHS). Prime Minister May, who was initially predicted to win in a landslide, saw her unassailable 20-point lead against Labour narrow to around five points at the end of May due to a pledge to make people pay more of the costs of social care, which was branded the 'dementia tax.' Some are predicting a hung Parliament or a small majority for the Tories.
But the apparent shift in voting intentions has not translated to votes for the Liberal Democrats. Those who have Brexit buyers remorse seem more likely to vote for Labour who, unlike the Liberal Democrats, have a better chance of winning and have positioned themselves as slightly less pro-Brexit than the Tories. Some say there just isnt room for a third party to make much difference. The Tories are getting 30% of Remain voters and will win about two thirds of leave voters, while the plurality of Remain voters will go for Labour, Philip Cowley, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University in London tells TIME.
Even the most senior Liberal Democrats concede that many Brits feel the Brexit question has been answered, no matter how they voted in 2016. Much as I'd like to think there's an army of 48% of the British electorate ready to rise up as one and say that they're all Liberal Democrats now, former leader Nick Clegg tells TIME, the truth of course is there are many people who, in keeping with a very sort of pragmatic British spirit, are saying oh well, we must now move on and make the best of it.
Theres also a sense that two years is not quite enough to spend in the wilderness, especially among younger voters who feel the Lib Dems did not do enough to resist the Tory agenda while in government. According to a Y ou Gov poll for the Sunday Times , nearly three-quarters of people between the ages of 18 to 24 will vote Labour no doubt buoyed by the partys popular policy pledges of increased taxes on companies and the abolishment of college fees. The damage done to the Liberal Democrats by the years in the coalition are going to take more than one Parliament to repair, Travers says.
The object for Liberal Democrats, then, is to use this election to build a platform for the future not just on Brexit, but on other campaign pledges pitched at young, metropolitan voters, like marijuana legalization and cleaner air standards. This isnt an election when the Liberal Democrats will be sweeping to power, Lib Dems strategist Mark Pack says. It is important to play the long game in some sense.
But some see more radical changes coming, once this election is over. One senior party figure, who asked to remain anonymous to speak freely, told TIME that a new movement needs to rise from the ashes of the snap election, much like the En Marche! movement which Emmanuel Macron rode to the French presidency. "I am not saying electoral packs; I'm not saying progressive alliances," says the senior figure. "They will be minor and on the edges, but something which brings those who hold broadly progressive views together and which above all, appeals to those beyond the political parties."
First, though, comes this election. The Liberal Democrats are still hoping to spring a surprise in Vauxhall, where Turner is campaigning hard to overturn Hoey's majority of 12,000. Bookmakers don't favor a shock, though Hoey is 1/7 to retain the seat, according to local media .
If she does, it will be because of voters like Georgie Darroch. The 31-year-old conservationist voted for the Liberal Democrats in 2010, and to Remain in 2016, but is now leaning towards voting Labour in Thursday's vote. The referendum has polarized the country, she says, and she wants to vote for a party that will foster national unity. I dont necessarily think going back on the [referendum] vote is going to be the best. I think we should be pushing for meaningful change.
Go here to see the original:
The Liberal Democrats Bet on a Brexit Election. It Hasn't Paid Off - TIME
- Cuomo: Mamdani has advantage as the Democrat on ballot - The Hill - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Morning Digest: An Arizona Democrat looks to expand the House playing field - The Downballot - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- 'Hell no, not on our watch': Texas Democrat ready to break quorum to block redistricting - Houston Chronicle - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- State audits find Democrat Jefferson County tax collector JT Smallwoods office in noncompliance - 1819 News - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Exclusive: Democrat on Bipartisan Push to Undo Part of 'Big Beautiful Bill' - Newsweek - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Better than this - Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Texas Democrat Tells Joe Rogan His Advice to GOP That Trump 'Tapped Into' - Newsweek - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Democrat from Trump country auditions for 2028 with plan to win culture wars - The Washington Post - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Democrat credits Trump for opening door to Syrias new government - Washington Times - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Sonoma Raceway security guard charged with assaulting wheelchair-using racer during NASCAR event - The Press Democrat - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- A red-state Democrat test-drives a 2028 message: From the Politics Desk - NBC News - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Democrat Joe Jaworski to run for Texas attorney general again - The Texas Tribune - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Key Democrat sends letter to Fox News seeking info on edited Trump interview - MSNBC News - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Andy Beshear introduces himself to South Carolina as the normal Democrat - Semafor - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Ron Wyden, a Democrat, Wont Let Go of the Jeffrey Epstein Case, Either - The New York Times - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Democrat voters who sat out last election want candidates further to the left: poll - The Independent - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Is Phillys DA race over? Republicans are polling whether Democrat Pat Dugan could beat Larry Krasner as the GOP nominee. - Inquirer.com - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- A top Democrat believes Fox may have deliberately sought to shield then-candidate Trump from any further association with Epstein. - Yahoo - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Sonoma County family loses their dream home after yearslong battle over permits, court-appointed cleanup company - The Press Democrat - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- What to know about the race to replace the late Arizona House Democrat - USA Today - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Alabama Democrat who flipped seat held by Republican for 20 years is leaving office - AL.com - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Scoop: House Democrat probes Trump's 22-year-old terror prevention official - Axios - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Cuomo says he is Democrat, running on an independent line and Mamdani is socialist on the Democratic line - The Hill - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Opinion: From a Democrat: The importance of Ron Hart and differing opinions - Chattanooga Times Free Press - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- The Texas Democrat Trying to Force Trumps Hand on Epstein: It Seems Like Hes Trying to Cover Up - Vanity Fair - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Democrat accuses Trump administration of diverting 'critical resources' from fighting organized retail theft - Fox News - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Opinion | As Democrat Beshear eyes 2028, hell need to deal with the groups - The Washington Post - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- 'What are you hiding?': Democrat urges admin to release Epstein files - USA Today - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Virginia Democrat on possible shutdown: Its time to stand up for the American people - The Hill - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Bernie Sanders on AIPAC: "No Democrat should accept their money" - The Jerusalem Post - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Tame that red afro: And other things Id have done if I knew then what I know now - Belleville News-Democrat - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Temporary closure of Sacramento National Wildlife Refuge for construction - Daily Democrat - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- I'm a Zionist Democrat. Mamdani has me asking if I must choose between my ideals and identity - The Forward - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Game on: Fields fill for Tennessees open 6th and 7th U.S. House seats; a Democrat in District 5 - Tennessee Lookout - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- House Democrat Calls on Kristi Noem To Resign Over ICE Lies - The Intercept - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Democrat rhetoric has gone from defund the police to attack the police, says GOP rep - Fox Business - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Vote 2026: Fellow Democrat gets in the governors race before Lamont - News 12 - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Palmer predicts GOP will increase majority 'The Democrat policies are so stupid' - 1819 News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- 2028 Watch: Another Democrat Contender Heads To South Carolina - FITSNews - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- PD reporter spends hours fishing at Santa Rosa lake with a rattlesnake in his kayak. Experts say he got lucky - The Press Democrat - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Democratic Party of Arkansas chair announces he will step down effective July 15 - Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Democrat who says he stands for underdogs will be one in quest to unseat Hal Rogers - Kentucky Lantern - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Rep. McCollum Joins Every Senate and House Democrat in Opposing the One Big Ugly Bill - Congresswoman Betty McCollum (.gov) - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Mayors Fourth of July celebration - River Valley Democrat-Gazette - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Democrat Jeffries Sets Record In Speech Delaying House Vote on Trump Bill - Yahoo Finance - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Lucas: Trump should demand the unconditional surrender of the Democrat Party - Boston Herald - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- There will be consequences for GOP in 2026 after passing Trump's bill, says House Democrat - NBC News - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Appeals Court Lets Trump Remove Another Democrat From Independent Agency - The New York Times - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Democrat Warned To 'Avoid Vulgar Speak' After Ripping Trump-Backed Bill - Newsweek - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Democrat sets record with 8.5-hr speech before vote on Trump bill - Times of India - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Pennsylvania House Democrat on Fetterman: If you dont want to be here, leave - Politico - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Democrat Colin Allred announces he will run for U.S. Senate again - Houston Chronicle - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Democrat Colin Allred is running again for US Senate in Texas - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Dan Haar: CT's top Democrat on how the party outside of New York should respond to Zohran Mamdani - CT Insider - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Geoff Duncan weighs whether to run for Georgia governor - as a Democrat - AJC.com - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Democrat Rips Fettermans Beach Gripe: If You Dont Want to Be Here, Leave - Yahoo - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- 2nd Democrat announces campaign to unseat GOP congressman - Grand Haven Tribune - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Democrat Colin Allred announces campaign for Cornyn's seat, O'Rourke testing the waters - fox4beaumont.com - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Longtime Pa. Democrat says he wont run for reelection to Congress - PennLive.com - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Democrat McMorrow to report $2M haul for Senate bid - The Oakland Press - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Pat Williams, Last Montana Democrat to Serve in the House, Dies at 87 - The New York Times - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Democrats fight to exercise their oversight duties - The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Democrat Billie Butler wins special election to represent Somersworth and Rollinsford in NH House - New Hampshire Bulletin - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Democrat Wyden presses Bessent to commit to US sanctions on Russia - Reuters - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- House Democrat demands VA disclose any spyware, AI installed on agency computers as part of DOGE initiative - Stars and Stripes - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Zohrans Next Challenge: Another Disgraced (Former) Democrat - Mother Jones - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Trump wins over lifelong Democrat with 'big, beautiful bill' and more top headlines - Fox News - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Rep. Robert Garcia elected top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee - NBC News - June 26th, 2025 [June 26th, 2025]
- Rep. Robert Garcia elected top Democrat on Oversight panel, setting new path for partys opposition - Federal News Network - June 26th, 2025 [June 26th, 2025]
- Hear heated exchange between Pam Bondi and Democrat over possible foreign influence on Trump - CNN - June 26th, 2025 [June 26th, 2025]
- 88-Year-Old House Democrat's Staff Walks Back Comments on Reelection Bid - Newsweek - June 26th, 2025 [June 26th, 2025]
- Top Democrat says Trump strikes on Iran a 'massive, massive gamble' - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- As a Seventy-Two-Year-Old Democrat, Am I Too Young to Run for Congress? - McSweeneys Internet Tendency - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Democrat AGs push to move OB-GYN tests out of Texas - Dallas News - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Robert Garcia earns key backing for top Democrat on House Oversight Committee - Washington Examiner - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Top House Intel Democrat warns 'we have no idea' yet whether U.S. strikes were successful - CNN - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Senior Democrat blasts Trump for not seeking congressional authorization for Iran strike - The Times of Israel - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- The Star Democrat's top 10 online stories this week - The Star Democrat - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Robert Garcia is a young Democrat with an old-style approach to moving up the House ladder - Politico - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Democrat Party reaches consensus to remain in government coalition - Nation Thailand - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]