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michael barbaro

From The New York Times, Im Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily.

Todays Senate primary in Kentucky has been transformed by the outcry over police brutality. Jonathan Martin, on what the election can tell us about the future of Democratic politics.

Its Tuesday, June 23.

Jonathan, tell me about todays Senate race in Kentucky.

Well, this is the Democratic primary to take on Senator Mitch McConnell, who, of course, is the majority leader of the Senate. And, for a long time, it seemed like his Democratic opponent was going to be Amy McGrath

Im Amy McGrath, and I love our country. I spent 20 years as a U.S. Marine, flew 89 combat missions bombing Al Queda and the Taliban.

who came to some fame nationally in her 2018 House race on the basis of her resume.

I was the first woman marine to fly in an F18 in combat, and I got to land on aircraft carriers.

She was a Marine pilot, and entered the House race talking a lot about her military experience

This is my new mission to take on a Congress full of career politicians who treat the people of Kentucky like theyre disposable.

and almost immediately gained this national profile.

Some are telling me a Democrat cant win that battle in Kentucky, that we cant take back our country for my kids and yours. Well see about that.

But she was not a terribly good candidate, it turns out.

This is a disappointment to Democrats. It comes from state to Kentucky. Amy McGrath, the former Marine combat pilot, defeated by the four-term incumbent, Andy Barr.

She was running in a pretty difficult seat for a Democrat.

But this is a district that Trump won by 15 points. Her opponent, Andy Barr, looks like will get that fourth term.

And she lost what was otherwise a great year for Democrats. But Chuck Schumer, who runs the Senate Democratic caucus, and effectively runs recruitment of Senate Democratic candidates, figured that she had one very important asset that could help him in 2020. She raised a lot of money and built a large list of national donors in 2018.

Hm. And so, as this Senate not House race gets underway this year, Im guessing Chuck Schumer decides to look to Amy McGrath once again.

Exactly. Because the idea was not necessarily to beat Mitch McConnell, but to at least keep the race competitive, keep McConnell pinned down in Kentucky, keep him focused on raising money for his own re-election, and perhaps siphon some national G.O.P. money that would otherwise go to different states, and have it go to Kentucky. So that was Schumers thinking.

Look, Amy McGrath is our candidate. Shes a strong candidate.

And he looked at McGrath and saw her money potential, saw the sort of breadth of her national donor list, and said

Shes giving McConnell a run for his money. The Republican super PAC put $10 million dollars into Kentucky. Shes doing very well.

this is who I want to be our nominee against McConnell. And Im going to make sure that she does not have any kind of a consequential primary to speak of.

So he wants to clear a path for her to become the nominee.

Right. Schumer wants to clear the field. He wants McGrath to be their candidate. He doesnt want to deal with drama in the primary. He just wants to have her raising money, putting up enormous numbers to spook McConnell, and divert McConnells attention back to his own home state and his own re-election. So it does seem like, for some time, that McGrath is not going to have a terribly competitive primary. And so while McGrath seems to be full steam ahead towards the general election, with not much of a primary to speak of, she is banking money at an extraordinary rate. She has raised over $40 million, which is more money than a lot of Senate candidates raise in an entire campaign, let alone a primary.

Yeah. Thats a lot of money. So as far as everybody is concerned, especially back in Washington, Amy McGrath is on a glide path to the nomination.

Exactly right. And then something happens.

We turn now to a deadly police-involved shooting in Louisville. The victim was an E.M.T. Her family claims she was executed by police, as officers served a search warrant in the middle of the night.

On March 13, shortly after midnight, Louisville police officers used a battering ram to enter the apartment of Breonna Taylor, who was a 26-year-old African-American emergency room tech, and shot her eight times while she was in bed in her own apartment.

So they just went into her apartment looking for a suspect, whom we now understand was already in police custody. This is not unique to Louisville.

We need answers. We need answers, because this should have never happened.

And this killing of Miss Taylor by Louisville police sparked an outcry in the state

We have right to live while black!

that is then amplified, sadly, by the killing in late May of George Floyd in Minneapolis.

(CHANTING) George Floyd!

Say his name!

George Floyd!

Say her name!

Breonna Taylor!

Say her name!

Breonna Taylor!

Say her name!

Breonna Taylor!

And how does that begin to impact this Senate race?

The activism in the aftermath of the killing of Breonna Taylor and George Floyd is extremely intense in Kentucky, and especially in Louisville. The demonstrations are nightly. There are clashes with police. And there is a candidate who is running from Louisville. Hes an African-American, and his candidacy is now starting to get more attention.

[APPLAUSE] I stand before you as your brother, as your cousin, as your neighbor, as your fellow good troublemaker.

My name is Charles Booker. [CHEERING]

35-year-old state representative named Charles Booker.

Im state representative for the 43rd District, which we are standing in. And if you are not from the 43rd District, I represent you anyway. [CHEERING]

So he represents what he likes to say is the poorest zip code in all of Kentucky.

No one pays attention to my neighborhood. In the West end of Louisville, with roughly 75,000 people, we have just a couple of grocery stores, a handful of dollar stores, because they prey on us.

He is from the West End of Louisville, black neighborhood.

And if you need to use public transportation to get to the hospital, it can take you a couple of hours. Jobs have left.

And he is someone who is running as a progressive, and had been running as a progressive

Our platform is about ending structural inequity, and ending generational poverty.

talking about issues like the Green New Deal, like single-payer health care, but hadnt gotten a lot of attention in large part because he hadnt raised much money. And McGrath had raised so much cash.

Right.

But after the killing of Taylor and then Floyd

We are crying out for Brianna Taylor, and were crying out for ourselves.

once these demonstrations get going, there is now suddenly more attention to Booker. Because he is a state lawmaker who is in these protests.

When Breonna died, when she was killed

Murdered!

a part of us was killed, as well.

Yes!

He is getting tear gassed in the streets of Louisville. And he is seeing this up front. He is experiencing this himself, day in, day out in his hometown. He is effectively a Black Lives Matter candidate.

But if you look like me, if you look like him, if you look like him, if you look like her, you may be seen as a deadly weapon before being seen as a human being.

Yes!

It aint right, and its hurting all of us.

And so what happens to Bookers candidacy as these protests intensify in Louisville, and all over the country?

Well, the two largest papers in the state, The Courier-Journal in Louisville and Lexington Herald-Leader, taking note of this fraught moment of racial politics, endorse Booker and state that hes the best candidate for these times. So that helps to give him traction. And then, in addition to getting that key local support, hes getting the attention from national progressive leaders. Bernie Sanders offers his endorsement. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez gets behind his candidacy. And thats putting him on the sort of national progressive radar screen, if you will.

So Jonathan, as Booker is, from everything youre describing, catching fire, what is the partys anointed candidate, Amy McGrath, doing in response?

Well, she is talking about these demonstrations and about the killing of George Floyd a little bit more, in recognition that she cant take the primary for granted. But Amy McGrath is not a natural politician. This was part of her struggle in 2018. And it does not go perfectly when she tries to engage these issues. In fact, in a debate shes asked the question about

Have you been on the ground in Louisville with the protesters the last three days or in Lexington or elsewhere, Miss McGrath?

have you been to any of the protests. And she answers pretty awkwardly.

I have not.

And, why?

Well, Ive been with my family and Ive had some family things going on this past weekend. But Ive been following the news and making sure that you know, I think were in the middle of a pandemic.

So suddenly, Amy McGraths politics of moderation and her distance from these protests are seeming quite out of sync with the moment.

Right. And, more to the point, Booker is very much tapping into the moment. This is suddenly a competitive primary. Amy McGrath has had to spend an enormous amount of money on ads in the last couple of weeks to sustain her advantage money that I think she and national Democrats thought that they would use against McConnell. And Booker has made this more of a competitive race going into the primary Tuesday.

And so what is Bookers surge here? What does that mean for Democratic Party leaders back in Washington, who bet so heavily on Amy McGrath?

So Booker illustrates that the intensity, the activism that were seeing on the streets of America in the last few weeks, is now at the door front of the Democratic Party. And Democrats are eager to harness this energy and activism, especially when it comes to organizing against President Trump and Republicans this fall. But when it comes to their own races, their own primaries, their own party, its more complicated. So this does also represent a challenge to Democratic leaders.

Well be right back.

Jonathan, how is it a challenge for Democratic Party leaders to have a candidate like Booker doing really well? Because on the surface it seems like a hotly contested Democratic primary that raises lots of attention, raises lots of money, that thats a good thing for the party.

Well, it creates a challenge, because Chuck Schumer has gotten used to being able to dictate primaries in the Senate races basically every two years. But its not just about Schumer. This is about the Democratic Partys leadership being able to keep its grip on who the nominees are going to be, where the money is going to go. And this is a real challenge to that power, that grip on the party.

And why does that grip matter if it may be out of sync with what Democratic primary voters want?

Well, because leaders like Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi believe that to keep or gain majorities they have to appeal to a broad cross-section of voters, and that that means nominating some candidates who are more moderate depending upon the state or the district that theyre running in.

And Booker does not fit that mold.

Exactly. Leaders like Schumer are skeptical that a candidate of Bookers liberal politics could win the race in a place like Kentucky, where Trump won by 30 points four years ago. But I think to get closer to the bone here, if Schumer is not able to control the outcomes of these Democratic primaries, and hes got people in his caucus, potentially, who are not loyal to him, who won despite his intervention, then thats going to create vote counting headaches for him. And looking at the map right now, his majority is probably going to be, if there is one, a seat or two. Its not going to be that extensive. So every vote counts. So hes thinking about, who am I going to have in my caucus? Whos going to be reliable? Whos going to be less so? And so thats where this matters.

This reminds me a little bit of what House Speaker Nancy Pelosi dealt with, with the election of the squad, among whom is Alexander Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib, progressive Democrats who tugged the entire body at times to the left in ways that House leadership wasnt perhaps ready for.

But its even more delicate in the case of Schumer because of math, because the Senate is going to be so closely divided next year. And if Democrats have a majority, itll be a narrow one. Think about it. Pelosi in the House she won 40 seats in 2018. They had a pretty robust majority. So you could lose a handful of progressives, like the squad, and basically cater to your more moderate Democrats, because those are the ones that had numbers. This is just a more sort of delicate situation because the Senate is on a knifes edge.

Jonathan, were talking about this race in Kentucky as if it is very high stakes for Chuck Schumer. But how much does this race, in particular, really matter?

So this less about eventually beating McConnell, which is going to be a tall order in Kentucky, then it is about whats happening in the Democratic Party. And its not just in Kentucky. Also on Tuesday, there is a competitive primary featuring Eliot Engel, whos the long-serving chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, whos facing a primary from an African-American, Jamaal Bowman. In Virginia, a fairly conservative district, there is also an African-American running in that primary. So what Im really interested in watching these primaries unfold is can progressives gather strength, organize and sort of overcome the establishment candidates in some of these races? But also, is 2020 going to be for black candidates what 2018 was for a lot of women, which is sort of capturing the energy of the moment? And I think thats going to be one of the most fascinating things to watch on Tuesday, is can black candidates like Jamaal Bowman in New York, like Booker in Kentucky can they build these multi-racial coalitions, capitalizing on this extraordinary moment of race in America?

Jonathan, it would seem counterproductive, not to mention perhaps hypocritical, for the Democratic leadership to stand in the way of such a change within their party, that you described. I mean, the party said it welcomed all these progressive women in 2018. And wouldnt it want to welcome and celebrate African-American progressive candidates in this coming election cycle?

Well, heres the catch. A lot of the women in 2018 the Democrats embraced were more moderate. You know, the squad got the attention. But a lot of the women who ran and won in 2018, who were not as well known, are much more centrist in their political orientation. I think the difference here is twofold. First of all, I think there is concern that some of their politics are too progressive for their states or districts. And I think in the case of Engel, of Congressman Engel, its just a matter of protecting incumbents. Thats a longstanding rule in both parties, that they support incumbents. So Nancy Pelosi, Andrew Cuomo feel obliged to support a longtime ally, somebody whos up for re-election.

Right. They dont want to lose loyal votes, longtime allies. That all makes sense for the leadership, in theory. But isnt the greater risk for Democratic leaders, on a really practical level, that they are missing this moment? They are not getting behind candidates. And they risk losing touch with this very powerful constituency that seems to be ascendant within the party.

Right! The left would say, this is what the moment is, and this is about the country now needs and demands. Given the virus, given issues of racial injustice, given the economic collapse, the moment cries out for real substantive sweeping policy changes in America, and that if you dont abide that, if you dont recognize that, then youre out of touch as a Democratic leader. And I think this conversation this tension between the left and the center in the Democratic party, I think, is really going to come to the fore.

And in that version of this, Jonathan, what becomes of some of these Democratic leaders who we started this conversation focusing on, like a Senator Schumer?

Well, they have to adapt to the moment. And if they dont, then theyre going to pay a political price in their own party. And they risk losing control of their own partys nominating process, because they would further feed this energy on the left, and risk having their own colleagues lose primaries. And, yes, even perhaps in Schumers case, they would risk their own seats.

You know, Ive spent a lot of time talking to candidates. And they often try to hedge or they often try to trim their answers to reflect the states that theyre running in. But that was not the case when I talked to Booker.

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The Battle Over the Democratic Partys Future - The New York Times