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Nick Clegg with East Dunbartonshire MP Jo Swinson and journalists from Scottish media in Glasgow. Clegg has persistently brushed aside suggestions that he might lose his seat despite three polls showing him trailing. Photograph: Steve Parsons/PA

Nick Clegg is predicted to lose his seat of Sheffield Hallam in the latest batch of polls commissioned by Lord Ashcroft setting out the state of the race for votes in eight key Liberal Democrat battleground seats.

The poll shows Clegg trailing Labour by two points, but on Wednesday the Lib Dem leader said he believed he would win in May partly because of his name recognition with the local electorate.

The data also shows that the Conservatives may not be campaigning hard in the seat, in a potential sign that the Tory high command would like to see Clegg returned. The Tory contact rate is the lowest of any of the eight seats surveyed by Ashcroft.

According to the poll, 16% of voters will back the Conservative candidate in Sheffield Hallam and 6% will opt for the Greens.

Campaigning in Scotland on Wednesday, Clegg said: The poll, as it happens, didnt even mention the candidates names and our own polling where it does it always shows a significant uplift in our support.

And just if you look at the way people have voted rather than what theyve said to Lord Ashcroft since 2010, people in Sheffield have consistently voted Liberal Democrat.

The Ashcroft poll of the eight constituencies also shows the Conservative party has consolidated its position in battleground south-west seats such Camborne and Redruth, North Devon and St Austell and Newquay, where it leads by 13, seven and six points respectively.

However, the Lib Dems lead the Tories by two points 38 to 36 in North Cornwall, with Ukip on 16%.

In Torbay, the Lib Dems have tied with the Tories in previous Ashcroft polls, but now have a one- point lead, with Ukip on 17%. In St Ives, the Lib Dems lead by three points and Ukip is on 11%, a vote that again could be squeezed by the Tories.

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Nick Clegg on course to lose seat at election, according to Lord Ashcroft poll