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Ted Cruz at a court hearing, June 28, 2016; Beto O'Rourke speaks to a constituent in El Paso, Texas, February 10, 2017.

Left, by Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call; Right, by Ivan Pierre Aguirre/The Washington Post, both from Getty Images.

Turning Texas blue is a persistent Democratic fantasy. And giving Ted Cruz a sound thrashing amounts to a bipartisan passion, although Republicans might prefer that he keep his Senate seat. In 2018, these hopes will collide, supplying an irresistible political drama. Cruz, for several reasons, has a dangerously low approval rating in Texas38 percentand the Democrats have a young, charismatic challenger named Beto ORourke, whos running a campaign similar to Jon Ossoffs in Georgia, positioning himself as a politician for all Texans. Hes looking to pick up the voters that Cruz has alienated with his relentless rightward tacking, his absence from the state as he focused on his presidential campaign, his acrobatic flip-flops on Donald Trump, and his notorious unlikeability.

I am not smart enough, and I haven't hired, you know, the political consultants or pollsters who are smart enoughor think they are smart enoughto have some grand strategy on how to exploit this issue or that person or micro-target this population or the other, ORourke said in an interview with the Hive. Im just going everywhere, listening and talking with everyone . . . I want to know what is on their minds, what they care about and what they expect from their next senator. Then I want to make sure I can deliver on that.

The 44-year-old El Paso congressman is a former punk rocker who played in a band called Foss. He has a bachelors degree from Columbia University and started his own technology company. He speaks fluent Spanish and took his wife, Amy, across the U.S.-Mexico border into Juarez for their first date. And as Austin-based political strategist Brendan Steinhauser put it, it doesnt hurt that O'Rourke looks like a damn Kennedy.

In recent years, Democrats and Texas have had a relationship much like Charlie Brown and the football. The Hillary Clinton campaign fantasized about winning Texas, but lost it to Trump by a nine point margin. In the 2014 gubernatorial race, Wendy Davisthe Ivy League-educated, telegenic state senator who rose to national prominence for her marathon filibuster of an anti-abortion billwas supposed to turn the tide. She lost to former Texas attorney general Greg Abbott by 20 points. Wendy had all the money, all the energy, the story, the narrative and did no better, Steinhauser, who served as Senator John Cornyns campaign manager and worked for the conservative PAC FreedomWorks, said.

Even many Democrats dont believe that 2018 is the year Texas could change color after a decades-long Republican winning streak in statewide elections. Congressman Joaquin Castro, who, along with his twin brother, former San Antonio mayor and Housing and Urban Development head Julian Castro, is often pointed to as the future of the Texas Democratic party, passed on a run earlier this month. The talk in Texas is that hes saving his ammo for a campaign against Cornyn, whos up for re-election in 2020, a presidential year when turnout, especially minority turnout, is likely to be higher.

But theres a school of thought that President Trump changes the equation. Harold Cook, a long-time Democratic strategist in Texas mused, In a typical year . . . the only thing you have to do in Texas to win an election is be the Republican nominee and avoid getting hit by a bus before Election Day. But Cook also believes that 2018 could be the atypical year Democrats have waited for. He characterized Beto ORourkes entry into the race as an embarrassment of riches that he is not exactly sure Texas Democrats deserve at a time when the party could actually break the Republicans winning streak. It is not just wishing because Ted Cruz is an ass. Its more than that, Cook said. To separate this from wishing, you really do have to have an overriding, probably national, cloud over the Republican brand. I cant think of a bigger cloud than Donald Trump.

Texas Republicans claim to be salivating over the prospect of an ORourke matchup. We have never seen anybody with his ideology elected in Texas. If elected, he would be one of the most liberal senators in the nation. He would rival Elizabeth Warren, one long-time Republican operative said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. There are places for people like that and there are districts they are likely to represent, that is probably not the Texas Senate.

When ORourke announced his Senate run at the end of March, Cruz was quick to launch the first of a torrent of attacks on the congressmans progressive credentials. A liberal Democrat is announcing a campaign today to try to turn TX blue, he tweeted with a link to his campaign Web site. And in the weeks since, Cruz has tried to tie O'Rourke to the boogeymen of the right, Rosie ODonnell and George Soros.

Hyper-partisanship, ORourke said, is a pretty f--ked up way to run a country.

But Cruz has work to do among his own party in Texas. Cruz and his arch-conservative obstructionist antics have never been popular among the states moderate and chamber of commerce Republicans. I think there are some [Republicans] in the moderate middle that are certainly not going to support him, Steinhauser said. There is a huge divide there, so they are going to look at somebody else.

Then there was Cruzs unforced error at the Republican National Convention when he declared he was not in the habit of supporting people who attack my wife and who attack my father and declined to endorse Trump. His favorability rating among Republicans was nearly halved almost overnight, prompting him to reverse course on Trump two months later. Cruz is politically toxic enough in Texas that even Cornyn, the states senior senator and G.O.P. whip, wont endorse him in his 2018 re-election bid.

Cruzs unpopularity means that theres only marginal benefit in further tarnishing him personally. So ORourkes attacks, at least for now, are subtler. I think almost everyone has formed their opinion or made their judgment on Ted Cruz, and they have watched what he has done over the last four years, which was extraordinary in terms of his accomplishments as a presidential candidate . . . But that certainly came at the loss of his constituents in Texas and the people that he was supposed to be serving during those four years and did not, ORourke said when pressed about his opponent. As in any campaign, part of it is the difference between you and the incumbent if you are the challenger. And part of itI think the more important part of itis what you want to achieve for the people that you are campaigning to represent.

By Drew Anthony Smith/Getty Images.

Cruz, aligned with the Tea Party and the House Freedom Caucus, is a paragon of partisan politics and dysfunction in Washington, while ORourkelike Ossoffmakes plenty of centrist noises. The congressman characterized the enduring reluctance in Congress to reach across the aisle as a pretty f--ked up way to run a country and said, I am not a rocket scientist, but the only way you can get something done in D.C. when you have Republican majority control in the House and the Senate is to work with Republicans, so I am going to work with Republicans.

In recent elections, the focus among G.O.P. candidates in Texas has shifted away from the general electionwhich they are assumed to wintoward the primary races, where moderate candidates get crowded out. This dynamic has resulted in an outpouring of hyper conservative legislation from Texasdespite a steady shift in demographics over time that traditionally favors Democrats. What that does is it protects you in the next election. What it doesnt do is grow a political party. In fact, over time, it will shrink one, Cook said. Anger, one of these days, is going to be a powerful motivator in this state.

While Cruzs bid for the White House midway through his first Senate term alienated some of the Republican base, people at least know who he is. ORourke, on the other hand, is a relative unknown. I would much rather be the guy who has 100 percent name I.D., has 40 percent that dont like him and never will, and 40 percent that absolutely love him and the rest in the middle, Steinhauser said. I would rather be with that guy than with a new face that nobody knows.

Texass sprawl and its 23 media markets make running a campaign vastly expensive. The cost to challenge Cruz could be around $30 millionif not much more. And ORourke is raising the degree of difficulty by refusing to accept PAC money, a Bernie Sanders-style move that could hamstring his own fund-raising apparatus. I am leaving millions of dollars on the table, but thats fine because its bringing thousands of people into this campaign, he said. There is no other influence or concern or interests that I have to pay attention to and if elected, there is no one else that I am serving except Texas and families in this state.

And it is unlikely that a Texas Democrat would see much support from the Democratic senatorial campaign committee, which is defending 25 seats in 2018. And of the nine Republican-held senatorial seats up for next year, Jeff Flake of Arizona and Dean Heller of Nevada are more obvious targets than Cruz. But Jeremy Bird, a Democratic strategist who served as the field director for Obamas 2012 re-election campaign, emphasized the important role the dislike for Cruz might play. I think Ted Cruz will be a motivating factor for a lot of people to give on the Democratic side in this race, both their time but also their money, he said.

Democrats have credited their decades-long losing streakthe party hasnt won a statewide election since 1994to low voter turnout in the minority-majority state. To me, the question is: can we build a progressive majority in Texas? If we do that, beating Ted Cruz will be a side effectand it would be an awesome side effect, one long-time Democratic political consultant in Texas told me. To win, Beto will have to turn out a sizable chunk of voters with a low propensity to vote in addition to the voters that cast their ballots for Clinton last fall. This will be a considerable challenge in an off-cycle year, when Democrats are already at a disadvantage historically and Governor Abbott and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick will also be up for re-election. Texas allows for straight-ticket voting, which means Cruzwhile not the most popular himselfcould see a boost in support thanks to the other Republicans on the ballot and G.O.P. lever-pulling.

ORourke isnt naive about the fact that he faces an uphill battle, but he thinks he can change his odds. I dont know when the last time a Democrat campaigned this hard in the Panhandle and West Texas 600 days from the election or spent time with leaders in Wichita Falls or Corpus Christi in addition to the places that have been reliably Democratic, he said. But I gotta tell youit feels right.

Republicans were quick to dismiss an April 2017 Texas Lyceum poll in which ORourke tied with Cruz at 30 percent of the vote in a hypothetical Senate racebut Democrats see it as a glimmer of hope. Beto is one of those out-of-the box candidates that captures peoples imaginations and when a candidate captures the imagination of voters, boywatch out, Cook said.

While he plans to run as an optimist and a senator for all Texans, ORourke knows that Trump is creating the political weather. Its very clear what is happening in this country and where the president is trying to take us, ORourke said, citing the border wall, immigration, attacks on the free press, and the ongoing Justice Department investigation into the Trump campaigns alleged Russian ties. We will all be held to account to what we did or did not do in the face of that.

The O.G. Never Trumper, Romney effectively renounced his past denunciations of the president-elect, whom he had previously called a con man, when Trump began publicly courting him for secretary of state. (He did not get the job.)

A long time ago, in the year 2016, the R.N.C. chairman threw everything he could to prevent Trump from becoming the partys nominee. Days after Trump won, Reince stood by his side as his chief of staff, possibly getting the least humiliating outcome for an erstwhile Trump foe.

The House Speaker spent months trying to maintain a safe distance from Trump, condemning his statements (even as he declined to renounce him) and at one point canceling a rally appearance with Trump after his past p****-grabbing comments came to light. Flash-forward two months, and Ryan was praising Trump in front of a cheering crowd in Wisconsin, thanking him for clinching the first Republican presidential win in the state in decades.

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The O.G. Never Trumper, Romney effectively renounced his past denunciations of the president-elect, whom he had previously called a con man, when Trump began publicly courting him for secretary of state. (He did not get the job.)

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From Getty Images.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From Getty Images.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park.

A long time ago, in the year 2016, the R.N.C. chairman threw everything he could to prevent Trump from becoming the partys nominee. Days after Trump won, Reince stood by his side as his chief of staff, possibly getting the least humiliating outcome for an erstwhile Trump foe.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From Getty Images.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From PBS.

The House Speaker spent months trying to maintain a safe distance from Trump, condemning his statements (even as he declined to renounce him) and at one point canceling a rally appearance with Trump after his past p****-grabbing comments came to light. Flash-forward two months, and Ryan was praising Trump in front of a cheering crowd in Wisconsin, thanking him for clinching the first Republican presidential win in the state in decades.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From Getty Images.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From Getty Images.

Digital Colorization by Ben Park; From Getty Images.

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Meet the Kennedyesque Democrat Trying to Beat Ted Cruz - Vanity Fair