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Except for a three-day period in late 1991, when Binghamton Democrat James R. Tallon Jr. found himself thrust into the job, the position of speaker of the Assembly has been a decidedly downstate source of power.

Not since the late 1950s and the days of Oswald D. Heck of Schenectady, the longest-serving speaker ever, has an upstater ruled the Assembly, and Heck was a Republican.

Majority Leader Joseph D. Morelle, a suburban Rochester Democrat, is about to alter that 50-year trend, but a huge question remains unanswered.

Will Morelle be another Tallon, a caretaker speaker, or another Heck, a speaker for years?

Theres an old saying around here: Upstate only succeeds when downstate is divided, said Assemblyman Robin L. Schimminger, D-Kenmore, a 37-year veteran of the Assembly.

Morelle, 57, who will be interim speaker until a new one is chosen, is expected to seek the speakership in an expected Feb. 10 election that could include several downstate rivals.

If the field narrows to a single New York City-area Democrat, the conventional wisdom is that Morelles chances dim considerably. The Assemblys Democratic Conference is made up of 105 members, and 62 of them are from downstate.

He knows how to take the temperature of the caucus, former Assemblyman Paul A. Tokasz, a Democrat from Cheektowaga, said of Morelle. He knows the membership. He knows their needs and he knows their policy priorities.

Tokasz, like Morelle, served as majority leader under Speaker Sheldon Silver, the Manhattan Democrat who is being removed from the post in the wake of federal corruption charges against him.

As the Assemblys No.2 leader and one of Silvers closest advisers, Morelle is the natural choice to succeed him in the interim. Assembly rules also require the majority leaders appointment unless a new speaker has been elected.

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Downstate speakers have dominated the Assembly since the late 1950s