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In a race that breaks sharply with the states electoral pattern, Democratic businessman Tom Wolf, a virtual unknown in Pennsylvania politics at the start of this year, is poised to win the governors seat next month in a race that is shaping up as a referendum of unpopular Republican Gov. Tom Corbett.

Mr. Wolf, 65, who has never held elected office, is leading Mr. Corbett in polls by an average of more than 15 percentage points. If the Democrats lead holds, it would mark the first time an incumbent has lost since Pennsylvania began allowing two-term governors in the early 1970s. The past six governors have won second terms by an average of 21 percentage points.

Pennsylvania governors dont just win; they win overwhelmingly, said Christopher Borick, an independent pollster at Muhlenberg College in Allentown. History is on the line.

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Chairman of a family-owned building materials company in York, Mr. Wolf has underwritten his rise to prominence by donating $10 million of his personal fortune to his campaign.

He will get a boost Tuesday when former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton comes to Philadelphia to campaign for him. She won the state over Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary after Mr. Obamas infamous comment about the states voters clinging to their guns and religion.

Although its Mr. Wolfs first bid for political office, he did serve about 18 months as state revenue secretary under Gov. Edward G. Rendell, a Democrat who praised Mr. Wolf as the guy next door, except smarter.

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Toms a quick study, Mr. Rendell said in an interview. He wont be in over his head. Sound executive judgment is fungible. If you make sound executive judgments in business, youll make sound judgments as governor.

But the Democrat, who is calling for tax increases as well as a middle-class tax cut, also is benefiting from a backlash against Mr. Corbett, a former state attorney general who defeated Democrat Don Onorato by nearly 9 percentage points in the 2010 governors race. Mr. Boricks poll for The (Allentown) Morning Call on Sept. 21 showed the governors rating at 55 percent unfavorable and 33 percent favorable.

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Democrat Tom Wolf poised to unseat Gov. Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania