Mediaboss Marketing

Christine Jardine on the campaign trail. Photograph: Ken Macpherson for the Guardian

There was a heckle, and some booing. Nicola Sturgeon, Alex Salmonds heir as first minister of Scotland, looked momentarily, but genuinely, uncomfortable last week when the audience for the televised Scottish leaders debates reacted grumpily to her refusal to rule out another referendum on independence.

According to Christine Jardine, the Liberal Democrat candidate hoping to deny Salmond a seat in Westminster, it was the moment the silent majority expressed that it was weary of the nationalist hubris.

They seem to have forgotten that they lost, she said. Alex Salmond said it was a once in a generation vote. They arent keeping to their word. And people are annoyed. I could not have had a better fundraiser and recruiter than Salmond for my campaign. A lot of people say to me that they have never voted Liberal Democrat but they will this time. It is not going to plan for them.

Jardine was speaking on the campaign trail in the commuter town of Ellon, 15 miles north of Aberdeen and part of the Gordon constituency that Salmond hopes will be his route to influence at Westminster. But his path may not be smooth.

We are reluctant to get too carried away, said Sir Malcolm Bruce, the retiring MP for the constituency, campaigning alongside his intended successor. But there is a mood and you can feel it.

The Liberal Democrats triumphed in Gordon in 2010 with a healthy majority of 7,000 (36% of the vote compared with the SNPs 22%). Bruce has held this seat for 32 years as a respected local man who offered a palatable alternative to the Tories in this relatively affluent area prospering from North Sea oil.

The latest Scotland-wide opinion polls have the SNP on 49%, Labour on 25% and the Lib Dems on a measly 4%. The only published poll to be done locally was in February, courtesy of the Tory peer Lord Ashcroft. That put the SNP in first place with 41% of the vote in standard voting intentions. The Lib Dems were in second place on 21% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 17% and the Conservatives on 15%.

However, when respondents were asked specifically about their constituency, the shares of the answers for the respondents rose for the Lib Dems and the SNP. A total of 43% of respondents said that they would vote SNP, while 26% said they planned to vote for the Lib Dems, putting the SNP well ahead but also pretty definitively making this a two-horse race.

It is the nature of the straight fight between Salmond and the anti-Salmond candidate that has given the Lib Dems a hope, and a strategy. It is one of 100 seats into which the party is putting all of its resources. One SNP canvasser admitted to the Observer: We think Salmond will win. But, actually, listening to what everyone says behind the scenes, it is going to be very close. An SNP voter, in Ellons market square, Kathleen Moore, 59, said: I dont think hell walk it.

Read the rest here:
Anyone but Salmond: campaign to stop former SNP leader gathers pace