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If Donald Trump loses the election this November, why would he not once again try to subvert that loss?

This is not a baseless question, certainly. Both Trumps critics and his supporters agree that Trump tried to prevent Joe Biden from taking office; they just disagree on the validity of that effort. Most Republicans 62 percent in a December Washington Post-University of Maryland poll believe there is solid evidence that the 2020 election was tainted by fraud, which is false. This belief undergirds the idea that Trumps post-2020-election efforts were rooted in his fighting against an illegal effort to influence the presidency rather than being such an illegal effort.

That view still holds. The Pew Research Center published data Wednesday showing that about half of Republicans (and independents who lean Republican) think Trump did nothing wrong in trying to overturn his 2020 loss, with a fifth indicating they were not sure if he did anything wrong. Thats more than two-thirds of the party, claiming innocence or uncertainty. Americans overall (and Democrats/Democratic leaners overwhelmingly) think that Trump did something wrong or broke the law.

That Trumps post-2020 actions are not seen by many in his base as a subversion of democracy is reflected in another question asked by Pew. Respondents were presented with a number of characteristics that might apply to Biden or Trump and asked how confident they were that the characteristics applied to the candidates.

Just more than a third of respondents said they were extremely or very confident that Biden respects Americas democratic values. Only a slightly lower percentage said the same of Trump. Among Biden supporters, confidence was higher: Three-quarters said they were confident in Bidens respect for democracy. Among Trump supporters, two-thirds had similar confidence in their candidate.

Theres a level of abstraction here thats important to recognize. Asking if a candidate you support respects democracy is a bit like asking if he is a good dude; youre going to be inclined to say yes. Overlay the willingness of Republicans and Trump supporters to dismiss the idea that he did anything wrong after the 2020 election and you get equivalence with Biden who has shown no similar inclination to set aside democratic determinations.

Pew asked another question that gets at the democracy issue more obliquely. How important is it, they asked respondents, for losing candidates to concede an election? Both supporters of Biden and Trump largely said that it was very or somewhat important. But while 77 percent of Biden supporters said it was very important (as did 60 percent of all respondents), fewer than half of Trump supporters agreed.

Pew compared those responses to previous polling on the same question. In November 2016, just before the election that Trump was expected to lose, even fewer of his supporters 31 percent said a concession was important. At every point, at least about 6 in 10 supporters of the Democrat have said that its very important for losing candidates to concede. (The losing candidate in 2016, Hillary Clinton, quickly conceded to Trump.)

The situation in 2024 is different from 2020 in that Trump is no longer president. That means that some of the tactics he deployed then might not be possible, such as trying to get his vice president to undercut the electors being counted by Congress. But many others still are, from pressuring state and local officials to introducing alternate slates of electors. Such efforts would be trickier, given the backlash to them over the past several years, including this week. But there is nothing preventing Trump from once again alleging impropriety or illegality in an effort to undermine any potential loss.

Of course, the Pew poll also showed that he and Biden are tied nationally, leaving him in a better position now than during the 2020 election. He may not need to subvert his election loss in November because he may just win.

The rest is here:
Analysis | Anti-democratic warning signs are blinking in current polling - The Washington Post