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Arizona has a history of producing lightning-rod members of Congress, like Representative Paul Gosar. But the Arizona politician you should be paying attention to and who can potentially tell us a great deal about Democrats hopes of avoiding a 2022 wipeout in the House probably isnt on your radar.

That would be Representative Tom OHalleran, a Democrat who has been in office since 2017 and who started out his political career as something few Democrats can claim a Republican.

OHallerans district was redrawn in 2020 and became tougher and Trumpier. Many say hes doomed to fail, but OHalleran is unfazed. Despite all the challenges Democrats face in the midterms this year President Bidens low approval ratings, historical precedent for the party in power, overheating inflation OHalleran believes old-fashioned retail politics will come through for him. His approach is an example of the stubborn yet necessary hope that Democrats can both localize and personalize their races in order to overcome a punishing national environment.

Im not somebody that stokes the fire, OHalleran, 76, said in an interview last week. Im somebody that tries to keep it in the area where its contained so that we can continue to use it effectively.

Even before it was redrawn, OHallerans district, which includes most of eastern Arizona, was highly competitive. Donald Trump carried it in 2016, the year OHalleran won his seat. He has held it since then thanks in part to recruiting problems by Republicans, who have put forward an array of over-the-top and underwhelming candidates.

This year, the Republican primary field includes a former contender on the reality TV show Shark Tank and a QAnon conspiracy theorist.

But now the district is even friendlier to Republicans: Trump won 53 percent of its voters in 2020. Some Republicans argue that in this political environment, any conservative candidate who wins the primary will win the general election, so its less important for the party than it has been in the past to find a superstar candidate.

Theres a limit to how far you can outrun your party before political gravity eventually catches up with you, especially in a year like this, said Calvin Moore, a spokesman for the Congressional Leadership Fund, House Republicans super PAC.

OHalleran has only so much control over his electoral fate, with the political world anticipating a Republican wave that flips the House. Some Democrats merely hope that OHalleran and a few of the partys other candidates in tough races can hold on and deny Republicans an overwhelming majority.

In that scenario, OHalleran is at the front lines of Democrats defense, defying the partisanship of his district as he has done multiple times before. And the way the Republican primary is shaking out, its very possible that OHalleran could end up with another weak opponent in the general election.

He feels confident either way.

I was a Republican, remember? he said. Im the same person then as I am now. And so I think people will remember that.

You wont find OHalleran talking about progressive policies on cable news or criticizing his Republican colleagues in the newspaper. Its all part of his political strategy.

A former police officer in Chicago, he was first elected to the Arizona Legislature as a Republican in 2000, and served in both chambers through 2009. After losing his State Senate seat to a more conservative candidate, he unsuccessfully ran to return to the state Legislature as an independent, then ran for the U.S. House as a Democrat in 2016.

He claims to do more town hall events than anybody else in Arizona. And while he acknowledges that fame allows some members of Congress to fill their campaign coffers and help build enthusiasm, he says thats not for him.

When asked how hed respond to concerns from voters about gas prices and inflation, he launched into an explanation that included a description of a chart presented at a House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing, sprinkled with mentions of supply and demand. When asked how hed fit that message into a 30-second ad, he responded, What will be in the 30-second campaign ad is my sincerity.

He said this race would come down to how much his constituents trust him, the same as in past races. Thats one reason hes not changing his approach, even though he now has new constituents.

I am who I am, he said, adding, If I start changing because of that, thats going to say to them Im willing to make changes based on my ability to get elected versus my ability to help lead.

OHalleran also dismisses the idea that hes been lucky with his Republican competition over the years.

In 2016, he was challenged by a former sheriff who had stepped down from Mitt Romneys presidential campaign after being accused of threatening to deport his ex-boyfriend. In 2018, OHalleran faced an Air Force veteran who had already lost a few House contests. In 2020, a challenger who struggled with fund-raising in 2018 struggled once again.

This year, the crowded Republican primary includes Ron Watkins, a former website administrator who is widely believed to have played a major role in writing the anonymous QAnon posts. Republicans doubt that Watkins will make it far. He last reported having raised just over $50,000, behind three other Republicans who have made federal campaign filings.

But even the candidate perceived to be most appealing to the establishment Eli Crane, the top Republican fund-raiser has positions that would be tough to defend with moderates. Hes a former member of the Navy SEALs, former contender on Shark Tank and has boasted that he supported decertifying the 2020 election. His top competition for the nomination might be State Representative Walt Blackman, a decorated veteran who once praised the Proud Boys.

When asked about the primary field, Republican strategists did not express much excitement, but they were also confident their party would win the seat anyway. And even if a candidate who is underwhelming at fund-raising wins the nomination, they expect outside groups to help out.

The expensive Phoenix media market might not have seemed worth the investment in previous years, but with such a promising national environment and the districts new partisan composition, Republicans expect itll be worth the effort this time.

Candidates and campaigns always matter, said Brian Seitchik, an Arizona-based Republican consultant. Having said that, with the redraw of that congressional district and a hyper-favorable environment for Republicans, Id say that race is going to be the Republicans race to lose in November.

But OHallerans team remains optimistic. Rodd McLeod, a Democratic consultant who is working with OHalleran, maintains that the congressmans relationships with constituents run deeper than partisanship.

He could be the guy, McLeod said, who outlasted the wave.

at issue

For the last 50 years, Nebraskas role in presidential primaries has largely been as a place with a good airport for traveling to western Iowa.

Now, with Iowas first-in-the-nation spot in grave peril after the last two Democratic caucuses were flubbed, Nebraska is ready to enter the contest to knock its neighbor off the beginning of the Democratic presidential nominating calendar.

Nebraska is going to go for it, Jane Kleeb, the states Democratic Party chairwoman, told me.

She will lobby her fellow Democratic National Committee members to back Nebraska in jumping to the front of the nominating line, she said. Republicans, meanwhile, remain committed so far to keeping Iowa first.

Among the Democrats, Nebraska will have competition. New Jersey offered itself last month to the D.N.C., and Michigans Democratic officials are also lobbying to go first.

Both are big states dominated by urban areas in expensive media markets. The appeal of the traditional early states Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada is that they in theory are small enough to build grass-roots campaigns that arent just television productions.

Kleebs pitch is that Nebraska has inexpensive media markets in Omaha, Lincoln and Grand Island; a recent record, unlike Iowa, of sending one of its electoral votes to Democratic presidential candidates; a mix of urban, suburban and rural voters; a significant Latino population at 11 percent; and plenty of Fortune 500 companies and Warren Buffett to help underwrite party-building in the state.

We know that we will be going up against a big Midwest state like Michigan, she said. What we have going for us is that we are small small but mighty.

A shift from Iowa to Nebraska would keep rural issues front and center for an increasingly urban Democratic Party. Candidates would have to become fluent in pipeline and eminent domain politics, where Kleeb got her political start, and learn to embrace the runza, the unofficial state sandwich of Nebraska.

Leah (Blake is on vacation)

Is there anything you think were missing? Anything you want to see more of? Wed love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.

Read more:
An Arizona Democrat Tries to Hang On in a Trump-Tilting District - The New York Times