Monkey Cage: A coup for democracy?
By Hein Goemans December 9 at 8:00 AM
[Joshua Tucker:One of our regular features here at The Monkey Cage is summaries from political scientists of recently published research. Thanks to a generous collaboration from journal publishers, we have arranged for articles that are featured in this series to be "ungated" and made freely available to the public for a period of time following the post on The Monkey Cage. During this time, you can download (and keep) the article described in the post. So if you are interested in keeping up on recent political science research but do not currently have access to political science journals, these posts can be one way to get access to interesting recent articles. The current post (begins below the five stars) is from political scientistHein GoemansofUniversity of Rochester. The article is "Coups and Democracy," which is co-authored by Goemans and University of Mannheim political scientist Nikolay Marinov, appears in the current issue of theBritish Journal of Political Scienceand will be available forfree downloadthrough the end of October.]
*****
One of the less heralded consequences of the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early 90s and the subsequent financial difficulties of newly independent Russia was that a major source of foreign aid to poor and developing countries more or less vanished overnight. In a recent article in the British Journal of Political Science, Coups and Democracy (available here) we show this may have promoted democracy.
In the 90s, a new international norm was promoted by the EU and laterby the US: in the aftermath of a coup, any new regime must quickly schedule and hold elections. Failure to do so will result in the denial or withholding of foreign aid. With no alternative aid sources, coup leaders in countries dependent on foreign aid were forced to comply. (Note the example of General Salou Djibo of Niger pictured above who scheduled and held elections after his coup in 2010, but not before he had secured immunity for himself and his fellow coup plotters.) Thus, as we show in the article, after the fall of the Soviet Union, elections were scheduled and held significantly faster after a coup than before. If they were not, foreign aid was indeed withheld.
This sets up a selection mechanism whereby we systematically no longer see some kinds of coups. Now comes the kind of clever twist that political scientists particularly enjoy. Think of the incentives to potential coup plotters: if they successfully execute a plot, they will have to schedule elections in which the winner will be the median voter. The unpleasant alternative is a lack of funds to pay the troops and keep the economy going. Any coup plotter with policies closer to the median voter than to the current ruler wont mind: elections will leave him or her better off than under the current leader. But if potential plotters prefer policies closer to those of the current ruler than those of the median voter, elections would leave them worse off after a coup. In anticipation of this sequence of events, such potential plotters may prefer not to launch a coup in the first place. As a result, we end up with fewer coups overall. And indeed, as expected, we did indeed find a structural break in the data in the number of coups after 1992. There are fewer coups overall, because there are fewer coups by extremists but there still are coups by plotters who launch coups that move a country closer to the median voter and closer to democracy.
Continue reading here:
Monkey Cage: A coup for democracy?
- Britain will lower its voting age to 16 in a bid to strengthen democracy - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Lowering the voting age: a boost for UK democracy or a shot in the dark? - The Guardian - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- From Voices to Visions: Reflections on Climate Democracy in Practice - International IDEA - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Imagining The Path Forward for The Healthy Democracy Ecosystem - The Fulcrum - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Republicans Advance Trump Judicial Nominee Said to Have Urged Court Defiance - Democracy Docket - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- An Urgent Warning from Texas: A Conversation on Defending Democracy and Fighting Authoritarianism in the States - Center for American Progress - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- How we Treat [Immigrants] will Shape the Future of Our Democracy and Our Moral Character - The Birmingham Times - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Britain will lower its voting age to 16 in a bid to strengthen democracy - AP News - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Democracy is not theirs to dismantle. More than 120 people turn out for 'Good Trouble' protest - GazetteXtra - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Dems to Fight Texas Illegal, Unconstitutional and Egregious Effort to Rig the Elections - Democracy Docket - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Senate Advances Bill to Claw Back $9 Billion in Funds for Foreign Aid and Public Broadcasting - Democracy Now! - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Video Britain to lower voting age to 16 in a bid to strengthen democracy - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Protecting democracy from big money: Why the UK's new elections strategy doesn't go far enough - Transparency International UK - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Election Officials Have Been Under Attack For Years. Now The DOJ Wants to Criminally Charge Them - Democracy Docket - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Pentagon to Withdraw Half of 4,000 National Guard Troops Deployed to Los Angeles - Democracy Now! - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Antithesis of democracy: Protesters gather for Good Trouble rally in Raleigh - Raleigh News & Observer - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- U.N. Rapporteur Urges Nations to Cut Ties to Israel to Stop Genocide in Gaza - Democracy Now! - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Texas Used DOJs Concerns to Justify Redistricting. Now It Says Theyre Off Base. - Democracy Docket - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Sudan, Remember Us Trailer: Watermelon Pictures Sets August Release For Doc Paying Tribute To Youthful Pro-Democracy Activism - Deadline - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Public Space Is the Infrastructure of Democracy. Its Time to Protect Our Right to Gather. - Next City - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- The U.S. Government Just Slapped The World's Largest Democracy With A Travel Advisory - TheTravel - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- History, Historians, and Democracy in the Age of Trump - Civil War Memory - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- UK to lower voting age to 16 a once-in a-generation opportunity to secure the future health of British democracy - The Conversation - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Britain will lower its voting age to 16 in a bid to strengthen democracy - MSN - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Equatorial Guinea: FAJ applauds journalists role in advancing democracy and justice at the Citizens Forum - International Federation of Journalists -... - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Britain will lower its voting age to 16 in a bid to strengthen democracy - Aurora Sentinel - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Book review: Christianity and Democracy Today: International perspectives, edited by David P. Gushee and Paul Silas Peterson - The Church Times - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- This Is the Most Inspiring Thing Ive Heard About Democracy at the Supreme Court in Ages - Slate Magazine - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Opinion | Trump Is Winning the Battle to Undermine Democracy - The New York Times - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Liberals claimed Trump would end democracy. They were wrong again. | Opinion - USA Today - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Daily Briefing July 15: Day 648 Dramatic day at Knesset leaves democracy intact for now - The Times of Israel - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Who is leading and lagging on democracy and reforms in the EUs Eastern Partnership? - New Eastern Europe - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Understanding the evolution and state of democracy in Zimbabwe: When a coup is not called a coup - Brookings - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- 'Misogyny Is a System': Julie Suk Wants to Reimagine U.S. Institutionsand Build a Democracy of Equality - Ms. Magazine - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- State Departments Restructuring and Proposed Budget Cuts Roll Back U.S. Role in Democracy and Human Rights Globally; Congress Has a Chance to Fix This... - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Court Delays Termination of TPS for 12,000 Afghans as Both Sides Asked to Submit Arguments - Democracy Now! - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Get Maine on the train for democracy before its too late | Opinion - The Portland Press Herald - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- We are ready to lead our country toward democracy and a European path - - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Mandelblit believes Israel heading toward end of democracy - The Times of Israel - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Jurists refer to the obstacle in front of peace, democracy in Turkey - - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Hundreds attend pro-democracy rally in Oceanside - Times of San Diego - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- The GOP Is Working Overtime to Take the People Out of Democracy - WhoWhatWhy - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Freedom to Choose?: Peter Beinart Slams Trump-Netanyahu Plan for Ethnic Cleansing of Gaza - Democracy Now! - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Evers refusal to fight and the fate of democracy - Wisconsin Examiner - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- What Exactly Is Required to Preserve Our Democracy? - The Atlantic - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Timeline: Tracking the Trump Justice Departments Anti-Voting Shift - Democracy Docket - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Apocalypse in the Tropics is the democracy documentary Trump doesnt want you to see - San Francisco Chronicle - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Depression due to politics? The quiet danger to democracy - University of California - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Theme Panel: Author Meets Critics: Depolarizing Politics and Saving Democracy by Jennifer McCoy and Murat Somer - Political Science Now - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Democracy report card: Experts weigh in on where the US stands - KPBS - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- This Week in Democracy Week 25: Epstein Cover-Ups, Crypto Corruption, and Trump's Tariff Tyranny - Zeteo - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- U.N. Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese on Israel: From Economy of Occupation to Economy of Genocide - Democracy Now! - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Knesset's new law on religious courts and what it means for democracy - opinion - The Jerusalem Post - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Inequality has risen from 1970 to Trump that has 3 hidden costs that undermine democracy - The Conversation - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- How to Stand Up for Democracy: Pedro Silva on Laughter and Liberation - WORT-FM 89.9 - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- In defense of a human right to democracy: Reflections on the pending Advisory Opinion before the Inter-American Court of Human Rights - EJIL: Talk! - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- What Is the Trump Doctrine? John Bellamy Foster on U.S. Foreign Policy & the New MAGA Imperialism - Democracy Now! - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Letters: Erosion of our democracy was the work of decades of right-wing plotting - NOLA.com - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Peter Beinart on Zohran Mamdani & Why Democratic Voters Are Increasingly Skeptical of Israel - Democracy Now! - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- NAACP president says fight for democracy and justice will continue - WFAE - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Harbingers: What January 6 and Charlottesville Reveal About Rising Threats to American Democracy - Ideastream - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Perspective: Only one branch of government? Keep fighting to preserve our democracy - Northern Public Radio - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Capitol Briefs: Weed taxes, algorithm collusion and the fate of Democracy - Capitol Weekly - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Expand Democracy: Musks Third Party, RCV in NYC, and Miami Backlash - The Fulcrum - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- This Is Our Shot: A Democracy Roadshow for the American Imagination - The Fulcrum - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- The rise of Viktor Orban and the erosion of democracy in Hungary - KALW - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Harvards Fight Is a Defense of Democracy and Civic Virtue - Liberal Currents - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Members of Congress visiting ICE facilities are showing up for democracy - The Hill - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Irwin Cotler sounds alarm on erosion of Israels greatest protection its democracy - The Times of Israel - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Georgia: how democracy is being eroded fast as government shifts towards Russia - The Conversation - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- CONNECTIONS: We shouldn't be surprised that we still have to fight for democracy even after 249 years - The Berkshire Edge - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Depression Due to Politics: the Quiet Danger to Democracy - University of California, Merced - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Democracy v. Plutocracy: Breaking Up is Hard to Do - KPFA - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Indefatigable leaders of Indivisible Sagadahoc fighting to save democracy - The Portland Press Herald - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- More on the Abrego Garcia Case: Some Good News for Democracy, Despite the Government's Best Efforts - Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- AI, Fair Use, and the Arsenal of Democracy - RealClearDefense - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Opinion - Members of Congress visiting ICE facilities are showing up for democracy - Yahoo - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Democracy isnt dying in darkness. Its being killed off in plain sight. - Inquirer.com - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Letters: Valuing democracy and a nation of laws - Westerly Sun - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- MK Gilad Kariv on the fight for democracy and Reform Judaism in wartime Israel - Haaretz - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]