Lessons for Narendra Modi from Lee Kuan Yew
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Photo: AP
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent political stumbles are a reminder of the unruliness of India's democracy. Last week Modi's government failed to get an amended land-acquisition bill probably the most important reform he's yet tried to implementthrough Parliament. Modi's only choice now is to extend the measures by executive order. That will only buy him time until Parliament reconvenes in a month, though; it won't convince businesses to invest. More worryingly, India's opposition, devastated and weak after Modi's sweeping election win 10 months ago, is rejuvenated and likely to block more radical reforms, if for no reason other than to take him down a peg.
Indian leaders long envied Singapore's late Lee Kuan Yew because without political opposition, he was able to get things done. But Lee himself made the point that India's democracy was no excuse for slow growth and stalled reforms. Speaking in Delhi in 2005, Lee said, "Democracy should not be made an alibi for inertia ... The real issue is whether any country's political system, irrespective of whether it is democratic or authoritarian, can forge a consensus on the policies needed for the economy to grow and create jobs for all, and can ensure that these basic policies are implemented consistently without large leakage."
Indian leaders long envied Singapore's late Lee Kuan Yew because without political opposition, he was able to get things done. But Lee himself made the point that India's democracy was no excuse for slow growth and stalled reforms.
Even in India it's possible to arrive at a reasonable consensus on reform. It's happened before, between 1991 and 2004a period in which India had four prime ministers, representing all sides of the political spectrum. Despite political volatility, the country saw steady, consistent economic reform and a decisive transition away from socialism. The changes laid the foundation for the 8 to 9 pe rcent growth India achieved between 2003 and 2008.
Unfortunately, agreement on the need to deepen market reforms broke down between 2005 and 2014. Complacency one result of high growthwas partly to blame. So was a misreading of electoral verdicts. It was widely believed that a right-wing coalition led by Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party lost in 2004 because of its focus on liberalisation, and that a Congress-led coalition won a second term in 2009 because it had focused on welfare policies instead. Between 2010 and 2014 the government adopted some policies that were outright antagonistic to business.
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Instead of bemoaning India's system, Modi has to make it work for him again. Thus far he's eased conditions for doing business in India, and his government has ended the careless obstructionism of its predecessor. But that's low-hanging fruit; even the failed land reforms are relatively minor. Eventually, to move farmers off the land where half of India's workforce wastes away producing just 15 per cent of GDPIndia will need to build factories and modern infrastructure. That will require not just acquiring farmland, but revamping labour laws and easing rules on foreign investment. It will mean privatising the behemoth state sector, which is a drag on the rest of the economy.
The first thing Modi needs to do is reach out to regional parties outside his own coalition, which hold the balance of power in the upper house of Parliament. These parties rule some of India's biggest states, including Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Orissa. Not all of them are as reflexively anti- Modi as the opposition Congress party is; indeed, many have their own issues with Congress as well. Already on some less-contentious reformssuch as increasing the foreign investment limit in insurance to 49 per cent and using auctions to allocate India's minesModi has successfully courted smaller parties to get bills passed. On mines, he dangled money: the proceeds from auctions will go to states rather than the federal government. More such bargains are needed.
Second, Modi needs to exploit the contradictions within Congress, which controls the largest number of seats in the upper house. The Congress has reformist elements too, and Modi can appeal directly to Congress chief ministers as well. Many had serious reservations about the existing land acquisition law, which their own party put into place while in power.
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Lessons for Narendra Modi from Lee Kuan Yew
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