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Last week, as I travelled through West Africa, I was seized with trying to make sense of the countervailing winds competing to claim the future of the African continent.

Its quite the puzzle, attempting to reconcile the retrenchment of good governance in South Africa and throughout Central Africa, where leaders who have failed their people refuse to relinquish power, with the recent democratic coup in The Gambia, the historic defeat of an incumbent president in Ghana, and the consolidation of democracy throughout West Africa.

What were the forces at work? How could we influence them? Would Africas authoritarian leaders take comfort in President Trumps embrace of less-than-democratic leaders elsewhere in the world in Turkey, Egypt, the Philippines and in Russia? How could we tip the balance?

Born on Oct. 2, 1953, Gyimah is a man on a mission, advocating with cap-in-hand for support to strengthen Africas nascent democratic institutions. He is a regular in Washington, D.C. at the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI).

We met up on May Day, at HSI Orient Center for Health and Wellness on the outskirts of the city. Gyimah has large, deep-set, sauce-pan brown eyes, and a bald head that is always perspiring. He smiles with eyes-wide-open.

Our CEO @RivaLevinson on The opportunity of #Africa for a #Trump administration. @thehill https://t.co/wYy6g0Mn6x

I love this place! says Gyimah. But I dislike the chairs, they rest too low to the ground.

Thats not a complaint, but a practical observation for the 63-year-old Gyimah, whose lower limbs were weakened by polio as a toddler, and further strained by injury as he managed a childhood where handicapped children were granted no special accommodations. He navigates life with a cane and a crutch, and immense upper body strength. Gyimah possesses a complete absence of self-pity, he sees his handicap as a daily companion. The word burden is not in his vocabulary.

Growing up, Gyimah first wanted to become a preacher, then a lawyer. Inevitably, a curious child, coming of age just after Ghana received its independence from Britain in 1957, political science became his obsession, and then his calling. Since young adulthood, Gyimah has been involved in every major political milestone of the country, including its 2016 presidential and legislative elections which brought in the fifth president of Ghanas Fourth Republic.

I coordinate with the waitress to add another cushion to Gyimahs lawn chair before he takes a seat. I fix my chair the same way. Over way too-sweet iced green tea, along with spicy seafood salad, chicken and cashews, and mixed vegetables, we catch up.

I explain to Gyimah that I fear that my optimism about the future of democracy in Africa was coming across as nave, and share with him one of the many comments I received on my recent column, this one from a journalist based in Senegal from a prominent news daily in the UK.

She writes to me, Sadly I don't think I can agree with you. While The Gambia was positive in the end, at a similar time, terrible things were happening in Gabon and the DRC, South Africa is becoming more undemocratic by the day. I just don't think tiny, unimportant Gambia translates into anything wider.

Africa's example: How democracy begets democracy https://t.co/94mLbpYtAc

Gyimah shakes his head, knowingly. Then he offers, neither one of you is wrong, Riva.

You need to think of democracy as a commodity. How much is available? What is the quality of the product? What do people want? What are they willing to pay for it to do for it, clarifies Gyimah.

The journalist sees small ruling cliques still clinging to power. And to her, their grip feels like it is getting stronger. She is pessimistic. You are speaking of the free will of the African people, and their readiness to hold leaders accountable, and for you, their voices are getting louder. You are an optimist, he continues.

Gyimah explains to me that this debate goes to the very heart of Africa today, and that he sees the continent at a tipping point.

Will democracy be supply-constrained, or demand-driven? Will leaders be forced to make way for the next generation, or will frustration with the governing authorities diminish the belief of the African people in democratic institutions, opening the door for a return to authoritarianism?

Afrobarometer has measured this phenomena. Its latest polling released in November 2016 found that 7 in 10 Africans believe democracy is preferable to all forms of government. And at the same time, more than half of the respondents surveyed are dissatisfied with the quality of their democracy.

The Afrobarometer report concludes that there is a democratic deficit where demand for democracy exceeds supply, and because of this, the continent is likely to experience popular pressure for democratization, with the danger that unmet democratic demands may contribute to social unrest.

Gyimah notes that if you look at polling in the rest of the world, Africa is an outlier in its unwavering belief in democracy. Recent research in the Journal of Democracy shows that North America, Western Europe, Australia and New Zealand have all become more cynical about the value of democracy as a political system, and, overall, less hopeful that anything they do might influence actual public policy.

Trump and America can win by doing more business with Africa - The Hill (blog) https://t.co/5b1emMerpb

There are no assurances that Africa will continue to be an outlier. There is no guarantee that democracy will ultimately prevail, Gyimah concludes.

Thats why democracy assistance from multilateral, bilateral and individual donors is vital at this time. As domestic pro-democracy groups in Africa labor to reclaim lost ground on democratic governance and to protect and deepen democratization in their countries, they benefit greatly from solidarity on the part of the international community, he exclaims.

After vigorous notetaking, which included opening the links with my iPhone to Afrobarometers graphs and data sets, I return the conversation back to the comment that prompted Gyimahs political science lesson and ask if I am wrong to be optimistic?

Says Gyimah, No Riva, you are not. I too am a believer that the continents future will be demand-driven, and that a young generation, empowered through education, social media and new technologies, will claim their right to be heard.

Gyimah says that contributing to his sense of hope are the actions of the U.S. Congress last week, which prevented President Trump from making unprecedented cuts to the U.S. foreign assistance budget, indicating, he believes, that the consensus built in pursuit of democracy-building over decades in America is stronger than any one White House occupant.

And then Gyimah adds, I have always held that the right leader can lift a nation, and the emergence of an anchor democracy, can lift the entire continent. And here I am hopeful, because I believe we are going to see this phenomena in Ghana in the coming years.

And with that comment, some two hours later, Gyimah asks for the check and we pack up 75 percent of the food we ordered, as neither of us found the time to eat. But we did manage to finish our too-sweet iced green tea, only after it was thrice diluted.

K. Riva Levinson is President and CEO of KRL International LLC a D.C.-based consultancy that works in the worlds emerging markets, and author of "Choosing the Hero: My Improbable Journey and the Rise of Africa's First Woman President" (Kiwai Media, June 2016), Silver Medal winner Independent Book Publishers Award, Finalist, Foreword ReviewsINDIES Book of the Year Awards. Follow her on Twitter @RivaLevinson.

The views expressed by contributors are their own and are not the views of The Hill.

Originally posted here:
Democracy's supply and demand in Africa at a tipping point - The Hill (blog)